Lord Napier Fine Value at 8/1

Overnight 888Sport (online only) offer 8/1 Lord Napier to win the Lanzarote Hurdle on Saturday (2.40 Kempton). I advise you to take that if it is still available. Otherwise Betfred and Tote offer 15/2.

I’ll write the race up later. Suffice to say it looks highly competitive on paper but I’m in no doubt Lord Napier at 8/1 is by far the best value in the race. He’ll go very close.

Following up now on Friday evening . . . Lord Napier has run in some very good company among big fields. That kind of experience is valuable in these hot handicaps. He has been unfancied in the market on both runs this season: 28/1 last time when he was 6th of 21, and 20/1 the time before when he finished 4th of 12 at Wincanton.

Both those races were over 2 miles and Lord Napier needs at least two and a half to be seen to his best (this race is 2m 5f). He’s 2 from 2 at 20f.

They went too fast for him last time and he blundered 4 out, playing catch up even more then, but he ran on valiantly and I think he’ll be spot on now for this. The 8/1 has gone, not helped by the withdrawal of Erick The Rouge. Although there should be just a small Rule 4 deduction.

I’ll be having a saver on Big Time Dancer. He hasn’t beaten much but I’ve been impressed by the style in which he’s done it. I often find that it ain’t so much what they do but the way that they do it. I’ll be taking the rare step with a saver of backing him EW because Hills offer 1/5th odds the first 6 (as opposed to the normal 3 places). They offer 16/1 about Big Time Dancer.

There are various other offers on him and the price depends on how many places you want to your each way money. If you’re happy with the standard 3, he can be backed at 22/1.

I’ve backed Lord Napier in an each way double with my other tip Step Back (3.00 Warwick), the number of places available make this an attractive bet.

Good luck

Joe

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