I pay close attention to improving horses and set out to look at Dimple in the 2.05 Kelso on Sunday. He’s won his last two and is a course and distance winner. But I’m now going to have just 25% of my stake on him which, if he wins, will leave me with a slight loss.
However, having seen the form of Rock On Fruity, I think he is potentially much better value. I say potentially because the main gamble being taken is that ROF’s recent move to Ben Haslam has reignited his enthusiasm.
He has run twice for his new yard. He finished 3rd last on his stable debut at Catterick but didn’t run nearly as badly as that suggests. Next time he travelled well for most of the race and won going away at 40/1, a price that indicates he’d been showing nothing in his regular homework.
But horses are little less complicated than humans. There’s rarely any way of gauging accurately how they are feeling and what they’re likely to do.
The other chance you’ll be taking with Rock On Fruity is his jumping. He has an odd style at times where it seems as though he’s trying to raise his back legs in a separate action from his front – most unusual. He certainly makes no ground at his fences; a let down in most ways, but it does tell you that there must be a decent engine there allowing him to be competitive despite his fencing.
Anyway, at around 4/1 I wouldn’t take the chance. At 15/2 it’s a no-brainer for me. If his form last time indicates a resurgence he has a strong chance of winning this.