Betvictor offer 4 places at 1/5th odds in the 3.35 at Cheltenham tomorrow. The Mighty Don is twice the price he should be imo at 33/1 and should be backed each way.
UPDATE
Paddy Power offer 5 places each way on The Mighty Don at 25/1. The choice is yours on the price differential. Had I not already backed him, I’d take the lesser price for the 5 places. Aside from having a 6lb pull for a 7L defeat by Paisley Park last time, he is back on good ground. He’s won 3 races: one on good and two on good to soft although ratings-wise his best performances have been on soft, that might simply have coincided with his improvement this season. Also, a mistake at the first last time might have unsettled him. And he is back going left-handed here which should suit him better. I thin that each way bet is the way to go.
It’s worth reminding readers at this point that the main aim of this blog is to highlight horses whose percentage chances, in my view, are considerably better than the bookies’ estimate. All that prices portray is a percentage chance in the view of the bookmaker. The chart below shows those percentages up to 8/1 by way of an example.
If a bookie prices a horse at 8/1, judging it to have an 11.1% chance of winning, and I believe it should be a 7/2 chance, that gives me almost 10 percentage points in my favour. If I am right more often than the bookmaker, then I will win in the long term. It’s a simple matter of probabilities. The difficult thing for some punters is accepting that it is a long term pursuit. Some lose faith after three or four losers in a row, especially if they have jumped in when a good run is in progress. The facts are that if you are having a level stakes bet on every tip, you can go 10 losers in a row and a single 11/1 winner will put you in profit.
Anyway, back to Saturday and the search for value. Art Mauresque is on offer at 9/1 to 5 places each way with Skybet. He runs in the 3.15 at Doncaster and has two factors substantially in his favour – the good ground (it’s essential for him to run to his best) and the flat, easy three miles. On this ground he almost always runs to his best and if he does so again, he will be very difficult to keep out of the first five.
The final bet of the day is War Sound in the 1.50 at Cheltenham. This is an open and tricky race and throughout last season War Sound was a hard horse to win with. But on his seasonal debut he won a decent race at Aintree most impressively and was at one point backed into 7/2 favourite for the Betvictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
On the day, he went off at 7/1 and, most unusually for him, ran no kind of race at all. This can happen with any horse and for any (unknown) reason. With Aintree, the scene of his victory, being so flat, and Cheltenham so undulating, you could speculate that he just didn’t take to the track. Indeed, he ran at this meeting last year (5/1 chance) and disappointed. But his trainer Hobbs, is a well balanced, logical person and I don’t think he would persevere at a track where he or Johnson thought the horse did not act.
On my first look at this Cheltenham race I wondered if maybe the Aintree win was mostly visual impressive and that there was no substance to the form. But a quick check on Horseracebase.com (highly recommended) tells me that 5 winners and 2 placed horses have come from that race out of 14 runs. The form is good.
So, in a tricky and open race, I’m happy (as I always am) to forgive a horse one inexplicably poor run, especially at 12/1 to 5 places with Hills.
I’d hoped to have a bet in The Cotswold but can’t make head nor tail of it. Bryony will want to go steady in front to see it out but the underrated Tom O’Brien will want to ensure it’s an out and out stamina test. If he gets involved in pacemaking, Elegant Escape’s jumping could crack.
There are large sections of good ground in this good to soft description according to turftrax. Valtor and Terrefort have raced on nothing but soft or deeper. Alysson Monterg is miles out on class and who can ever say what Minella Rocco will do, even after wind surgery? It’ll be a fascinating race on jockey tactics alone.
In summary:
War Sound – 1.50: 12/1 EW 5 places – William Hill
Art Mauresque – 3.15: 9/1 EW 5 places Skybet
The Mighty Don – 3.35: 25/1 EW 5 places Paddy Power
I always have a small stake ew treble on days like this. The place part alone can give you a nice return. Just a shame we cannot take advantage of the 5 places on offer with the treble. I’ve placed mine with Power as The Mighty Don has arguably the stiffest task and that 5th place might be crucial.
Good luck
Joe
Steeplechasing 