Saturday’s Eider Chase (2.40 Newcastle) will be watched here through my fingers. Two horses I’ve tipped on this blog run – Kimberlite Candy, who had a real off day when I put him up, and more worryingly Rock On Fruity. Thet latter was one I spotted as an improver and tipped him to win at Kelso at 15/2 on January 12th. He was withdrawn and I failed to spot him running next time at Newcastle when he won at 16/1. He seeks a hat trick here and I’m nervy about deserting him.
But a horse I’ve been watching for a few seasons now might just be well suited by this marathon trip judged on his last run at Warwick. I’ve always though Crosspark might pick up a decent race without ever being a superstar and he runs in this after staying on last time over 3m5f, looking very much like he was enjoying himself.
Normally I’d back 2 or 3 win only but William Hills’ outstanding EW 1/5th the odds first 7 is not to be ignored here and I make Crosspark the sole selection EW with Hills at 14/1.
Good luck
Joe
Steeplechasing 
Joe Many thanks for your thougths on this. I, too, did not realise that Rock on Fruity had run and won on its next appearance. I may be tempted to put it in with your selection as the odds are tempting.
Looking forward to Cheltenham.
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Aye, Tom. I believe at least two others I tipped (who ran poorly) won next time. Frustrating business!
Joe
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Great tipping Crosspark! I get the system now!
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Many thanks.
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Hi Joe,
Good result on Crosspark and thank you for sharing.
Would you ever consider putting together a series of posts detailing your processes when making your selections i.e. why you’ve chosen X horse and what form tools you use?
Best wishes,
Chris
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Hi Chris,
It’s something that’s crossed my mind, but the key element would be impossible to explain. I got into racing when I was about 12 and have been watching jump races every season for more than 50 years. I think some kind of osmosis allows me to see something in the way a horse travels, or responds to certain actions that tells me something significant about the horse. In the case of Crosspark, I’ve noticed him in races for the past few seasons and put him in a mental notebook, though I cannot tell you what I saw in those – mostly running down the field – performances that made me did so.
Conversely, when I saw him run at Warwick there was a definite sign in his appetite for the finish – especially in the way he stretched his neck and galloped on late – that told me he was relishing the extra distance. So, I suppose there are obvious signs like that one I could advise on, but how much value people would place on that I don’t know.
Perhaps a classic example of being unable to explain… I watched La Bague Au Roi win her first chase this season and I think I audibly said, Wow! Just watching her gallop – her athleticism, focus, appetite – she seemed to me a different (and much better) horse than last season (I had never taken to her as a hurdler and she’d held no interest for me).
I tweeted that day that I thought she’d be the best chase mare since Dawn Run (you’ll see earlier posts on this site about her). My excitement about her was probably something to do with her enthusiasm – I believe that’s a huge asset in a horse. Not many have it, and some of those who do don’t keep it for long. In her last race at Leopardstown, I thought that for the first time over fences she did not sparkle. Many watching that race and any of her others would see no difference – to me it was stark and it came as no surprise that she had not taken the race well and had lost weight and been rather down on her return (trainer comments).
Anyway, a longish explanation which sadly will leave you none the wiser!
All the best.
Joe
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Hi Joe,
Thanks for taking the time to reply – much appreciated.
You’ve actually given some good advice there and that is just watching the racing and making notes about how a horse performs. I just watched the Leopardstown race you mentioned and to my untrained eye, her finishing was superb given the amount of pressure from the other runners.
Best wishes,
Chris
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She’s hugely game, Chris and battled away despite not being at her best. Hopefully she’ll be shining by Aintree and will show everyone just what she is capable of.
Best wishes
Joe
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