I just noticed that after Getaway Trump’s fencing debut today Bet365 pushed him out to 33/1. That looks like a significant error – some companies shortened him to 12/1 from 16/1.
I backed the horse today and he ran really well, jumping soundly in the main for a debutant, but failed through lack of fitness, something his trainer had warned about beforehand. Getaway Trump was a short-priced 2nd fav today behind Al Dancer, who won the race for Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose horses are always hard fit early in the season. Yet Getaway Trump loomed up menacingly as they turned in looking to be going the better before he ran out of puff. He’ll be a different animal when at his fittest and the festival will be the target as far as Nicholls is concerned. I have a slight worry that they might go the JLT route but it seems Nicholls has conformed that Getaway Trump will be back for the Arkle trial at Cheltenham in three weeks.
That niggling doubt about the JLT is what makes Getaway Trump a 1* bet rather than the 2* he would have been given the value in his price.
*My usual confidence classification on bets is: worth a bet: I recommend you bet this: I strongly recommend a bet. This season I’ll allocate a star to each of these, three-stars indicating most confidence.
Good luck, and be careful. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile, no matter the source of the tip.
All the best.