I’ll avoid one of my favourite races – the Old Roan Chase – as I cannot separate Frodon and Kalashnikov (the brave might want to have a reverse forecast/exacta)
My concentration is on the 1.50 and 3.35, which, at the time of writing, will provide EW bets to three places.
In the 1.50 Monbeg River appeals strongly as value at the 11/1 on offer from Ladbrokes. His best form is on flat tracks like this one and he has clocked his co-best Racing Post Rating on soft ground (that’s the forecast going). He hasn’t won for almost 2 years but had a consistent run of performances last season. In September they sent him to Ireland (Listowel). It was his first trip abroad. He was a 5/1 chance but ran some way below his best (some horses don’t like travelling overseas).
At 11/1 I think he’s well worth an EW bet.
As well as backing Monbeg River EW single, he ought to be doubled EW with Bako De La Saulaie in the 3.35 at 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Bakoe De La Saulaie goes well on easy ground and despite being winless in 7 chase runs has been most consistent, building a formline that’s most encouraging for EW fans. As with a number of my value selections, BDLS is trained by a ‘small’ trainer – Rose Dobbin. In finishing 2nd of 12 in his last chase run, he clocked the best Racing Post Rating he’s achieved so far over fences. He should not be 16/1 for this.
In summary, I recommend two EW singles and an EW double with Ladbrokes:
Monbeg River at 11/1
Bakoe De La Saulaie at 16/1 with the same firm.
These are 2* bets.
*My usual confidence classification on bets is: worth a bet: I recommend you bet this: I strongly recommend a bet. This season I’ll allocate a star to each of these, three-stars indicating most confidence.
Good luck, and be careful. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile, no matter the source of the tip.
All the best.
Post race comment:
Neither was placed. Monbeg River was strong in the market going off at 5/1 2nd fav. He travelled very sweetly and rhythmically in the lead until just before five out where the jockey seemed to react to something and rousted the horse into the fence. He didn’t jump it well and continued under pressure immediately afterwards before fading very quickly. I strongly suspect he broke a blood vessel. It’s rare for a horse to go from galloping comfortably within himself to almost nothing within strides; if it wasn’t a bleed, then something else was to blame. He should probably have been pulled up.
Bakoe De La Saulaie was only nibbled at in the market and went off at 12/1. After the first mile he began running in snatches – on and off the bridle – never a good sign. He was pulled up with some way to go.
Seasonal bet record: