Lostintranslation runs at Carlisle tomorrow. He should win but is not a value price. If he wins I think he’ll halve in price for the Gold Cup afterward so should be backed now at 10/1 for the big Cheltenham race. He runs over 20f tomorrow. He is better at 3 miles plus, but has crossed swords time and again with Defi Du Seuil, a speed horse I like an awful lot. That was over 20f and Lostintranslation acquitted himself superbly over a trip too short. Carlisle is stiff enough to bring stamina into play, although I think he’d win this at any track despite the presence of the improving Kildisart, a horse I think a lot of.
The brave among you might want to include Lostintranslation’s stablemate Elegant Escape in a double with the latter at 40/1 for the Aintree test. I’m convinced Elegant Escape has a huge chance in the National if his trainer gives him a quiet preparation. He is designed for the race, despite his regular errors. The National fences don’t take anything like the jumping they used to and most of Elegant Escape’s errors are caused by caution – not a bad thing by any means, and he has never fallen. I’d have no worries at all about him getting round Aintree. 40/1 is massive value, but it comes with the assumption that Tizzard will give him a proper rest between races. Son Joe Tizzard has indicated that they will do this, but father Colin has an innate belief that horses are there to be raced – such a habit might be hard to overcome. Still, the price more than compensates for it. I’d have him as no more than 10/1, even at this stage.
The other I suggest for, perhaps, a life-changing treble is Defi Du Seuil for the Champion Chase at around 14/1. With Altior due to miss the 2-mile championship this season, Hobbs will be hugely tempted to send Defi Du Seuil there. Likely favourite Chacon Pour Soi is a poor jumper and despite the fact that he beat Defi Du Seuil in Ireland after a long season for the latter, he has no chance of jumping round Cheltenham safely on what I saw at Punchestown.
There’s no value, except in rare cases, in betting EW antepost as there is always the chance your horse will not turn up; it’s bad enough losing the win stake in that case. So I recommend a win patent on a 3* rated bet:
Lostintranslation – Gold Cup – 10/1
Defi Du Seuil – Queen Mother Champion Chase – 14/1
Elegant Escape – Grand National – 40/1
Win patent
*My usual confidence classification on bets is: worth a bet: I recommend you bet this: I strongly recommend a bet. This season I’ll allocate a star to each of these, three-stars indicating most confidence.
Good luck, and be careful. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile, no matter the source of the tip.
All the best.
Joe
Steeplechasing 