Here are the full details which apply to my earlier two posts on this race:
I’d be more confident of predicting the National winner from this Ladbroke Trophy field than I am about getting it right today. Elegant Escape, bar some awkward jumps, which have yet to stop him, always seems to get to the other side one way or another, and I think he’s a great bet for the Grand National. The problem he has with today and with all races around this trip, is that sooner or later he gets outpaced. That’s when the odd error can wind itself into a string of them.
At Aintree he’ll have plenty of time to sort himself out, but not today unless young Cobden gives him a changed ride. The key for him is the same for many staying chasers getting into a rhythm and holding it. The only way I can see that happening is by trying to make all, or by deciding to drop out. I’d rather see a selection run a slow, steady, rhythm that kept mistakes at bay and conserved everything for the long Newbury straight, than see him drip energy away through errors, anxiety and stress.
Equally, Elegant Escape is not slow. He’d be capable of making all if something crazy didn’t try taking him on up front.The Tizzards always try to use both assets: speed to keep him with the pace as long as possible, then stamina to cancel out that long, mistake-laden flat spot. It’s very interesting to see him blinkered today.
I’ve also backed Beware The Bear at 80 on the Exchange. All the traders seem to have made the same assumption after the Henderson horse pulled up at Sandown last time: he has returned to his old ways after two wins in blinkers. That assumption could come back and bite them.
Beware The Bear’s blinkered successes were on easy ground. It was good ground when he failed to complete. In his previous attempt at good ground he was pulled up too.
He was running career bests last year and at this hugely generous price. I am happy to pay to discover more about Bear’s New Life In Blinkers.
Beware The Bear – win only bet on Betfair at 79/1
Elegant Escape – win only bet at 12/1 – several bookmakers
*My usual confidence classification on bets is: worth a bet: I recommend you bet this: I strongly recommend a bet. This season I’ll allocate a star to each of these, three-stars indicating most confidence.
Good luck, and be careful. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile, no matter the source of the tip.
All the best.