Saturday Tips

I covered the Warwick Classic Chase in my previous post.

In the 2.05 Kempton I’m happy to take a chance at the price that Kauto Riko’s last run was a true reflection of his ability. He was a fast finishing 2nd in the Peterborough Chase to Top Notch who re-opposes today on 2lbs worse terms. That was a step up on anything Kauto Riko has done but only by 4lbs on Racing Post Ratings, indicating that he carried a fair degree of talent into the race, where he started at 100/1. He wore a first time tongue tie and travelled and jumped throughout like one of the principals, coming under pressure turning in and responding exceptionally well to finish much the fastest. There’s a reasonable chance that the tongue tie has been a significant aid and he wears one again here. Topspeed in the Racing Post is always one of my checkpoints and he has Kauto Riko 21lbs + clear in this – a rare happening.

I’m backing him at the generally available 7/1

In the 2.40 it’s worth chancing Tight Call at 10/1. He hasn’t had much racing but has, more than once, shown potential. When runner up to Tedham at Wincanton last year he lost the battle on the run-in. He looked to have something ailing him that day the way he carried his head in the last couple of hundred yards; I wouldn’t go so far as to say he was distressed, but there seemed to be something wrong. It’s no surprise to find out then that he’s had wind surgery since his last run and also wears a tongue tie here.  It’s a tricky race but I think an EW bet to 4 places (most bookies) could pay its way.

Fransham at 10/1 is worth a bet in the 3.45 at Kempton. He ended last season with two victories and opened this winter campaign with a smooth win at Wetherby. These victories were divided by 1 poor run in July at Market Rasen. Last time out he was fancied to follow up from Wetherby, but he whipped round at the start and by the time he got going had lost all chance. Now, it might be that this was a temperament fault or he could just have been unlucky. At 10/1 I think he deserves this opportunity where we will probably find out, one way or the other. He would have appealed as an EW bet but for that whip round; no point risking double your stake. If he gets away on terms and is on his Wetherby form, he can just about win it.

In the 3.35 at Warwick you’d search the field a long time to find as game a horse as Special Acceptance, or one as unlucky. Last time out he came from a difficult position before the last at Sandown to throw down a late challenge to the leader when his rider Tom O’Brien fell off near the post after losing an iron. In his previous race, his second of the season, he led a big field to the 7th where his rider lost his irons, The pair pressed on but could not get back in contention and he pulled up before two out. Special Acceptance is not the best of jumpers and he made several errors in his seasonal debut, including a bad blunder three out and mistakes at the last two. He was not discouraged and put his head down to battle back past the two in front only for two more to swoop very late leaving him in 3rd; that was here at Warwick. Special Acceptance must have a decent engine to do things the way he does. His form figures of 3PU will have helped push his price out, as well as the fact he is 5lbs out of the handicap, although the very talented Jack Tudor claims 7 off his back. At 16/1 to 4 places he’s well worth an EW bet. Things will come right for him some day and it might well be Saturday.

Selections

Warwick

3.00 (Previous post)

Mysteree  14/1

Le Breuil. 8/1

The Conditional  9/2

3.35  Special Acceptance  16/1. EW

 

Kempton

2.05  Kauto Riko  7/1

2.40  Tight Call  10/1

3.45  Fransham  10/1

 

Good luck. Most tipsters are unreliable and inconsistent, including me. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile – whatever the source of the tip.

All the best
Joe

 

 

2 comments

  1. Joe. It’s fascinating to read your analysis of your selections’ form. Thank you for sharing your insights with those who lack such a specialized understanding, like me. Tom

    Like

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