If things pan out the way I think they will, Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 Haydock) will look more like a John Ford movie as they head for home, with Red Indian and Geronimo leading the pack. Red Indian is particularly good value at 25/1. He relishes the mud and has a record on heavy ground of 121. Four of his last 9 runs have been in graded company, including a 4th of 7 behind La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1.

He has 10st 11lbs here minus the 5lbs his jockey Ben Jones claims (top weight is Definitly Red with 11.10)

Red Indian has run his best races after longish breaks and he comes here having been rested for 287 days.  He should not be 25/1. I’d normally back him each way but instead I will have a saver on the improving horse and the least exposed, Geronimo, who has won on heavy.

Geronimo has the almost perfect profile of an improver when you use Racing Post Ratings to measure progress. His career figures are: 103 103 107 114 114 119 123 132 135 137.

His trainer Sandy Thomson knows what he’s doing and the yard is in cracking form as you’ll see from the figures below (kindly supplied by Horseracebase.com)

You can back both with Bet365 who are currently best odds and also protect you with the best odds guarantee. Red Indian is 25/1 and Geronimo 7/1.

Summary

Red Indian  25/1 win only: 3* bet

Geronimo  7/1 win only 1* bet

Good luck. Most tipsters are unreliable and inconsistent, including me. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile – whatever the source of the tip.

All the best
Joe