Many will have watched Frodon win the Cotswold Chase last January. If so, you might recall the 40/1 outsider Allysson Monterg travelling like a class horse for most of the race. He matched strides with Frodon until turning in, steadily fading from the 2nd last to finish some way back. He hasn’t raced since, a reflection of his overall career; he’s had just 13 runs.

I first spotted him winning easily at Perth and backed him a couple of times afterwards without success. But that Cotswold Chase run was his first with cheekpieces and despite finishing unplaced, he notched up his best ever Racing Post Rating.

Cheekpieces are on again tomorrow and he had a wind op on September 19th. He’s won twice on heavy although what kind of heavy it turns out to be remains to be seen (I recall much debate when Ascot’s new drainage was first put in) David Johnson of Timeform tweeted that the going stick reading will be the  lowest at Ascot for ten years. Digging back to see how previous Ascot heavy affected results (looking mainly for big upsets) there is very little data. At their December meeting (2019) the ground was heavy, but you need to go back 5 years to find the previous NH meeting held on heavy.

Allysson Monterg’s record left handed is 0 from 9. Right handed it is 2111. There’s been money for him since the entries were published – 11/1 to 7/1 generally, although Boylesports are the sole bookie offering 8/1.

It’s a highly competitive race. I was impressed by Domain De L’isle last time when he followed up his Chepstow win with an impressive Newcastle victory, looking very much an improver bang in form. But he went into the Chepstow race (7th Dec) on 120; tomorrow he races off 140. Runner up last time was the consistent Sam’s Adventure (not helping his cause with a tired error at the last) who has an 8lb pull for a 5L defeat. Jack Tudor, a wee star, knocks another 7lbs off tomorrow so he’s going to get an awful lot closer to Domain De L’isle than last time.

Happy Diva never runs a bad race. She hasn’t finished worse than 5th in her 31-race career (when completing). I like Kildisart an awful lot and there’s a big name handicap in him. But that will surely come on much better ground than this. Venetia’s 6-y-o, youngest in the field, needs to defy a rise of a stone to follow up his last victory here. But he’s another potential right handed specialist who will get his ground.

So, a hot race. But I hope that an EW bet on Allysson Monterg will get a return.

Summary:

3.00 Ascot Alysson Monterg EW at 8/1 Boylesports. 1* Bet

Good luck. Most tipsters are unreliable and inconsistent, including me. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile – whatever the source of the tip.

All the best
Joe