There’s nothing I’m hugely enthusiastic about for Tuesday. If it were do or die and I had to choose one that would win I’d go for Asterion Forlonge in the first. He made a big impression on me last time when I thought he’d struggle to maintain the pace. In fact, he drew right away toward the end so he’d be my NAP on Tuesday.
The one horse I think could win at a big price is Jarvey’s Plate. I’ve watched this horse for some time and have no doubt he has the talent to win the 4.50, but the question always is with him, which Jarvey’s Plate will turn up? He’s most inconsistent. If the first time blinkers here have the necessary effect he’ll probably win this. Bet365 offer 40/1 to 4 places. Hills go 28/1 to 6 places. 33s to 5 places with most of the other bookies might be the best compromise. For me I’ll back him win only at 40s as I think he will either bomb out again or take to the blinkers and win this. I’ll have a saver on his stable companion Paint The Dream – another horse I’ve watched for some time – at 25/1 EW to 6 places with Skybet.
A word about a very open Champion Hurdle. I haven’t a clue what will win, but Cilaos Emery was indicating he’d be a much better horse over fences than hurdles. He’s won all three completed starts over fences (fell behind Chacun Pour Soi) and I think for Mullins to not only switch him back to hurdles (won his comeback run at long odds on) but to then pay £22,500 to supplement him here potentially tells a much more interesting story than the betting suggests. I’d have him much closer to 11/2 than the 15/2 on offer.
Here’s a selection for every race – main bet and saver.
1.30 Asterion Forlonge NAP: Fiddlerontheroof
2.10 Notebook: Rouge Vif
2.50 Who Dares Wins: The Conditional
3.30 Cilaos Emery: Fusil Raffles
4.10 Benie Des Dieux: Roksana
4.50 Jarvey’s Plate at 40/1 win only: Paint The Dream EW 25/1 6 places
5.30 Ravenhill: Springfield Fox
Good luck. Most tipsters are unreliable and inconsistent, including me. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile – whatever the source of the tip.
All the best