This is my first post for some time. It seems very few people read blogs these days; some cannot get to the end of a twitter comment. Anyway, here are three who will be much shorter on the day should they get to the post in March.
I’ve already tipped Goshen at 10/1 for this straight after his misfortune in The Triumph (Note that I often tip on rushed markets that PR guys are hassled into quoting on straight after a significant event. But, by their nature, these prices rarely last five minutes so I normally only tweet them. So far this year I’ve advised Love for The Arc at 10s and Pyledriver for the Leger at 10s (both gone in minutes) I also tweet a few ‘short’ tips on twitter. By that I mean without any reasoning attached, despite the fact I might have put a lot of time into study. Anyway, the message is that if you want all my tips, follow me on twitter @steeplechasing).
Goshen is now about 9/2; no value left there. But there’s plenty of value in the 20/1 about Saint Roi for the Champion Hurdle. If you have access to replays, watch him win the 2020 County Hurdle. Geraghty was motionless on him throughout the race. On waking him up Saint Roi stormed clear of his 23 rivals in the manner of a very good horse. He’s hugely unexposed with just 4 hurdle runs and with even normal progress he’ll be a major player come March.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Defi Du Seuil ran his only bad race last season on the day it counted most. Some of you will have followed the advice from April 2019 to back him at 20/1. Starting at long odds on he simply had an off day. It happens. The upside is that antepost traders have overreacted and offer 14/1 for next year. Assuming he stays at 2 miles (not certain but it seems the obvious path), I think he’ll almost be favourite again come the off.
It’s hard to back against a three timer for Mullins and Al Boum Photo and the 6/1 about that one appeals. But the big value is in Champ, especially as he is unexposed at this trip over fences. You might recall he was my nap of the meeting this year, and if you backed him you will definitely recall that he was nowhere to be seen before swooping into shot close home having made up 8 lengths from the last.
He’s a smashing horse. The only weakness he seems to have is losing ground the odd time at his fences. I’m happy that he is a safe jumper, but he’ll never win prizes for it.
Lostintranslation is one I loved last season, but once again, Mister Tizzard messed up his training by running in the King George after such a taxing victory in the Betfair. Anyway, with another season behind him I think there’s a fair bit of evidence now that he doesn’t quite get the Gold Cup trip.
I like Santini, but believe Champ is better, and certainly the stronger stayer.
So, have a fiver EW treble. Betfair prices are the best overall on these:
Saint Roi. 20/1
Defi Du Seuil 14/1
And I’d have a separate acc for a £1EW, these three and Lisnagar Oscar at 14/1 to repeat his Stayers Victory.