This is a horse I’ve never got right and I’m running a net loss on – bear that in mind when I say I cannot see him beaten today. Many, including the bookies, seem to have taken his last two defeats at face value and priced him at odds against. In my reality he might as well have stayed at home for those last two events.
In his Arc ‘prep’, the Prix Foy, they went no pace and he ended up losing out in a two furlong sprint. In The Arc he ended up in another sprint in heavy ground, his jockey inexplicably having chosen to sit behind a funereal pace for 80% of the race. To still hope to win after that is like having a boxing strategy against Mike Tyson of allowing him to punch you unhindered for 9 rounds with you coming back to knock him out in the 10th.
Stradivarius is the best stayer we have and he’s back at a staying trip. He ought to be 8/13 here and I have taken the 6/5. You should do the same.
With nothing approaching the same confidence I have backed Serpentine EW at 14s (Skybet, 4 places) for the Champion Stakes. I think he’d have gone really well in The Arc, so this might be on the short side, even in this ground. But his price is too high, and so is that of Pyledriver whose connections might, by happy accident, found exactly the right trip for him in this ground. But he had a really hard race at Doncaster and this could be a slog today. I’ve had a small saver win only anyway at 14s.
Good luck. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. There are no certainties in racing.