25/1 Nelson River Looks Value

I wouldn’t have a big bet, but Nelson River looks to be twice the price he should be in the 2.40 Ascot today, and given the shortness of the favourite, Buzz, I’d say the real value lies in EW.

Nelson River usually runs in better class races than this, albeit he hasn’t won one. This time last year he was in the Fighting Fifth, and although last of 5 there, he registered his highest Racing Post Rating. Perhaps the most notable insight that gives is it was heavy ground. Two of his top four hurdle ratings are on heavy, but because his prominent finishes have been on better ground, he’s been dubbed a good ground horse. Ascot today as soft and described by Nicky Henderson as tiring.

I think it’s worth noting too that this is Nelson River’s first time right handed over jumps. That can sometimes affect a horses performance markedly, though not always in a positive way. We shall see.

Bet365 offer 28/1 to 3 places.

Remember, don’t bet more than you can afford.

Good luck.

Joe

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Brown sport horse portrait isolated on white close up

2 comments

  1. Congratulations on the classic each way bet there Joe!! Cast iron logic destroyed by a less than inspired ride and a couple of sticky jumps where the ground was at its worst.

    There is surely a race in the horse, possible a decent handicap if placed shrewdly!!

    Cheers
    Si

    Like

    1. Thanks Simon. Aye, he lost his place badly down the back for no reason I could see. Maybe he took a bump or something. And yes, his jumping was probably what cost him most.

      All the best
      Joe

      Like

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