Talking Horses Saturday July 10th

Plenty of evidence that posters here know a proper horse when they see one, with massive support for Snow Lantern, who looked the top notch animal Dilton has always said she was. Great price too at 6/1. Well done, Auld Chiel, Mickle, Simon Thompson, Luke H, and Rob J, who added Dubai Honour at 11/2. Rob’s been in superb form of late. Fingers crossed for all today with some fascinating racing.

The blog’s Saturday nap is Starman in the 4.25 Newmarket. While finding one winner is always hard enough, I want to draw attention once more, for the visitors who come here just to read the posts, that there is some great value on offer with Skybet in their EW markets given the extra places they pay. A win treble or accumulator is not impossible, though hard to land, but at these terms a place treble or accumulator can fetch a very nice profit.

The blog’s recommendation today is for small stake EW trebles and and a small stake EW accumulator on these where Skybet pay the first four on Kingmania and the first six on the others:

KINGMANIA 2.05

HURRICANE IVOR 3.35

AMETIST 3.50

STARMAN 4.25

I’ll be taking SP as Skybet shave their early prices due to offering the big place concession

Please leave your nap, along with any other tips or chat, in the comments below. Don’t forget mention the race time too for your selections.

Great day’s sport in prospect.

Good luck

Joe

56 comments

  1. Tomorrow is the punting equivalent to ‘knitting fog’. Impossible and a bookies benefit. It may be your day off, but stay at work. Numerous Tracker horses, with the wonderful Dakota Gold, needing a couple of runs to be effective. The Nap should be No Bet. However, I go with three. Dhushaan, the Nap, Ascot 4.45; Perotto HQ at 3.50 and Starman, HQ at 4.25. I do think Starman is special, but I can’t be second guessing Joe all the time.
    Now, the real bet is Hard Love at Belmont 10.12, 12’s with Hills, 4’s with Paddy.

    Like

  2. You’re dead right about tomorrow’s cards, caveat puntor as the Romans probably said!!

    I love these heritage handicaps though and Winter Reprise dropping back in trip and down in class from pattern company tickles my fancy at 30-1 on the exchange in the John Smiths cup at 4.05.

    Like

  3. The nap (ha! could be anyone on a fiendish day) is my old pal Sir Busker in the 3.00 at Ascot. For those wanting to frazzle their brains and change their lives the other selections (that don’t count towards Joe’s daily challenge) are often suspiciously similar to Greg Wood’s: 2.20 Fujaira Prince, 3.50 Perotto. 4.25 Rohaan, Riknaah 2.05, Astro King 4.05, Significantly 3.35, Chichester 1.45. Given 8 to avoid, you can’t say fairer than that.

    Like

    1. My apologies Jackie. The quote was well intended, but inconsiderate. Thanks for pointing this out with good humour.
      Good luck today.

      Like

  4. Please contribute to the Syndicate thread near the bottom of the blogs at Steeplechading.net if you are interested.

    Like

  5. One of those days, great racing,not great betting!! That being said I think Billy Buick might be on for a good day at Newmarket. I’ve been on Starman since the beginning so have to agree with Joe (although also like creative force in the same race). Over at york there is some nice price e/w bets that have good course form. 14:20 fujaira prince (was almost my nap), 16:05 Nicholas T (skybet paying 7), 16:40 Dakota gold (loves York) and 17:15 Mr wagyu. I’ve put them in a small e/w hail Mary accumulator so wish me luck!!
    Nap wise I’m going for native trail (15:15). Good luck all.

    Like

  6. Spending some of the Snow Lantern winnings today
    Sticking with Rohan after a last minute flutter in the Wokingham the pre race David Evans interview was a give away so I lumped on minutes before the off.
    Also on Good Birthday 4.05 York as it’s my 50th today..synchronicity and all that.
    Happy betting all.

    Like

    1. Congratulations Bobsworth on your Hawaiian birthday.

      Hope Rohan comes in and you’ll be swimming in shampoo on your big day.

      Like

  7. An excellent day to watch some potentially great racing. Hoping a few past winners for me e.g. Hukum, Oxted and Nicholas T run well, but my nap for today is Nebulosa in the 2:05 at Newmarket. I’m thinking the return to 7F and better ground will be in her favor. Good luck to all, and hope all horses and jockeys stay safe.

    Like

    1. Good win for hukum, I see Nicholas T has come in from 18/1 this morning to 9s. Let’s hope that’s a good sign!

      Like

  8. Fitzante, very much each way, the 1.00 Navan at 20/1 or so. Making her debut for Johnny Murtagh- we’ll see, can’t do any worse that I’ve done in the last few days!!! Great racing today, nearly impossible to find winners, though I wish you all the best of luck with your bets ( in bocca al lupo!).

    Like

  9. I read on irishracing.com that there has been market support for Murtagh’s Sonnyboyliston (Silver Cup York) and Condon’s Miss Amulet (July Cup Newmarket)….might be of interest….

    Like

  10. What a day of racing. Competitive and proper fields. Not easy for the average punter like me though!

    I Like the following

    3.50 HQ – Mutakayell 13/2 6 places

    5.00 HQ – parachute 2-1
    2.25 Ascot – Spanish Kiss 5/4 (double with above)

    Surrey Gold 4-1 4.45 ascot (nap)

    If the rain comes then maybe a wee bit on winter resprise EW in the 4.05 at York 28-1+

    Enjoy folks and good luck!

    Like

  11. I can’t resist a few of the big handicaps today so here goes.

    Ascot 3.35 Aljady
    Ascot 4.45 First Light
    Newmarket 3.50 Ropey Guest
    Newmarket 4.25 Supremacy
    York 4.05 Winter Reprise
    York 4.40 Mossy Glen

    Like

  12. Ropey Guest I did not dare to post up…seventeen attempts at a win on a natural track…and yet…and yet…(3.50 Newmarket) (ew)

    I’ll Go All The Way (16.50 Limerick) ew

    And Austrian Theory, on name alone, perhaps (3.15 Newmarket). ew

    Like

      1. I did not think you would make the switch, elgransenor, no TV, etc. Well done. But I did see someone here the other day who I suspected was sorrymess. Good luck with Santa Barbara, but the odds say you won’t need luck?

        Like

      1. Me too. Dhusaan was my 2nd best in a tough call. Fingers crossed. Well done to you and all Starman backers. I’ll gather you on the Hitlist this evening. Starman landed me a place treble too, with Ametist the sole disappointment.

        Like

  13. Well done Joe and all of you who managed to find winners today. I could not find TH at all on The Guardian on line (did hear a death rattle though)! Only wall to wall football…..the Italians will sort out that one tomorrow night….il calcio viene a casa…. !!!

    Like

    1. Senza dubbio. I will watch the match quite dispassionately, having a foot in both countries.
      In some ways I would like the decent young men of England and their gentleman of a manager to prevail. Should then not, then I will be pleased for the Azzuri and I will look on with glee the fallen jingoistic toe rags of this once honourable island.

      And now to tomorrow’s cards with an eyes on Hard Love at Belmont 10.12, yesterday’s 12s have crumbled to 6s and 4s.

      Like

  14. Evening all. This is getting bigger every day, isn’t it? Good stuff one and all.

    The race I am interested in tomorrow is the Jean Prat (Deauville, 2.50). JC Rouget’s lightly raced filly VALLORIA has been brought along steadily. (I’ve been following her development since last autumn when Dilton mentioned her.) JC has few peers in nurturing talented fillies and she won with a deal in hand last time on ground with give. It will be very soft tomorrow but she has the ability to quicken off a slow Gallic pace. AOB sends two of his slightly disappointing but still highly rated 3yos, Wembley and Battleground. The former would be a topical winner on Euros final day, but quite honestly he looks as if he is being sent out of duty (thou shall not let a European Group 1 race go uncontested by this yard). He has been rated as high as 118 but the fact remains his sole win was a Roscommon maiden last year on bad ground. Battleground has shown no evidence that he will relish Deauville-style heavy, so again he looks a bit hit and hope to me. I do like the Rouget approach and Valloria sticks out as an interesting proposition – she will need to step up a notch but at 25/1 to four places she should give a fair account of herself.

    Like

  15. The England team and the Italain team start the game as equals. “Sportsmanship, fair play, [and] playing for the love of the game is the Corinthian Spirit, still understood as the highest standard of sportsmanship”. It is still possible in this benighted country of ours to appreciate a game of football as a sporting occasion. I am certain that both teams respect one another as do both managers. Whichever team shows more skill and converts it into goals will be the better team. Patriotism can fill the spirit, win or lose, whether Italian or English.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Quaidb, the corinthian spirit has long left the game of football and it is very much a case of do what is necessary to win as is evidenced by the ease of which players go down (in all areas of the pitch). The English (or British teams) used to pride ourselves on the fact that we didn’t do it but we soon cottoned on that if everyone else is doing it why don’t we.

    Re the match itself, I think it’s quite evenly matched. They are better defensively (at keeper especially and at centre half) although we are superior ar full back, especially since Spinazzola is ruled out. Midfield I think they have the edge as they have better passers. Out wide I think we have the edge (slightly) and at centre forward its as much as a no contest for us as keeper is for them. Bench, we win that, especially in attacking areas.

    The good news is I am fairly certain none of this Italian team have won anything either at national level. However history weighs heavy from an England perspective. Whatever the result our footballing future is as bright as anyone’s but hopefully we can get the monkey off our back as it would make the world of difference.

    I have an inkling that Southgate might bring in Henderson (for his big game experience and to help nullify the Italian midfield) for Saka and play Mount out wide. Saka has done little wrong but I think Southgate errs on the side of caution (at least for now) and it’s the way I’d go against a good Italian team. Keep it tight for 60 mins and then bring on our options from the bench.

    Like

  17. There were disturbing scenes of misbehaviour by the England fans at Wembley in the semi-final – booing the Danish national anthem, harassing and reportedly assaulting Danes (male, female, children – it made no difference) inside and outside the ground and letting off flares and fireworks (greatly facilitated by the private security company whose employees made no attempt to check tickets and photo ID, search bags let alone inspect evidence of negative Covid tests, all of which the government assured UEFA would take place as they insisted that a 60,000 crowd was entirely safe and sensible. The Met were clearly ordered to police with a light touch as nothing was to spoil this great festival of post-Brexit, post-lockdown joy as we all revel in the new national mission: Britain bounces back better. It’s been a great tournament, but don’t let anyone tell you it was a celebration of all that’s good in the game. Football is politics these days.

    I have some sympathy with those such as the French, Spanish and Italians who have conveyed their unhappy conclusion that the tournament was heavily skewed to ensure England made the final. The furthest they had to fly was short haul to Rome, while the European giants had to schlep to Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, St Petersburg and Moscow like the itinerary of a teenager with an Interrail card. Of course that’s what we Brits are going to do now in the new order of things: arrange things to suit ourselves and when we win we spit in the faces of the vanquished.

    (Spoiler alert: I am proud to be Anglo-Danish. The Anglo half of me was dismayed and ashamed on Tuesday just when everyone else was jubilant and proud.)

    Like

    1. Harry, I think your comment highlights the difference between pride and patriotism.

      It is a quote oft attributed to Wilde but I believe it is some French fella who coined it “Patriotism is the virtue of the viscious”.

      There is absolutely nothing wrong in having pride in and being proud of supporting the national team, but when patriotism comes into the equation things tend to take a turn for the worst on many levels.

      This is also the thing that grates, by and large do people really understand what ithey are doing these horrible acts in the name of. What is it that matters most. What is England or what does it mean to them (or any other country by that matter). It’s certainly not the ruling classes (be that monarchy and/or politicians). What it should always be is the people (at least the good ones).

      Like

  18. Jamie Patriotism is O.K. but it is often confused with nationalism. George Orwell defined them as follows: “By ‘patriotism’ I mean devotion to a particular place and a particular way of life, which one believes to be the best in the world but has no wish to force on other people. Patriotism is of its nature defensive, both militarily and culturally. Nationalism, on the other hand, is inseparable from the desire for power. The abiding purpose of every nationalist is to secure more power and more prestige, not for himself but for the nation or other unit in which he has chosen to sink his own individuality.”

    Nationalism is a dangerous force which leads to conflict. We just need to look at history to see what it leads to. Partriotism is not like nationalism, it is just a pride in one’s country of birth, or indeed, one’s “adopted” country.

    Like

    1. The part of “having no wish to impose on others is key”. I do not consider myself to be and have never associated myself as a patriotic person but I’d have no real issue in subscribing to Orwell’s version.

      What he / you say about Nationalism are bang on. The problem we have in today’s society is that the rampant Nationalist elements are there in plain sight and are easy to identify and condemn but the subtler (but still) sinister elements are bundled / packaged under patriotism and that defensive narrative that Orwell mentions is often used to justify the actions.

      Like

      1. Yes, it’s fundamentally the Trump playbook. His defeat was a great setback for the current Government now in power here in the UK.

        There are some very dangerous forces which have been legitimised in our culture, overtly or covertly, in the last five years particularly. The attempt to associate the Union flag with one political group (Tory Party) plays to a particular nationalistic audience. The creation of division in our society which is inherent in this is a contradiction of the meaning of the flag.

        Decent patriots can see an array of national flags at an international event and celebrate the diversity of cultures which they represent. Those obsessed with nationalism hate to see flags of other countries or to recognise the equality of all cultures based on our common humanity. The ultimate expression of such nationalism is the attempt to destroy other cultures.

        Like

      2. The three lions on the English shirts are French ones – we were ruled by France in the 12th and 13th centuries. Multicultural “Englishness” goes back some time.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.