Talking Horses Thursday August 5th 2021

The Steelman continues his remarkable run of consistency with another winning nap yesterday – Lasting Legacy (advised at 7/2) – Sterling stuff, Steelman. Dirty Northerner is rarely off this Hitlist for more than a couple of days and did well napping 11/8 winner Sweet Enough.

The blog’s 16/1 nap Rockesbury took too long launching a challenge: 2nd by a head. One place treble came up from the Skybet EW perms making a loss of a third of the stake.

Today’s nap is Ballintoy Harbour in the 5.42 at 11/4. Win bets have also been wagered on Dilawara in the 6.38 and Amir Kabir in the 8.25

The Skybet EW perms involve the following:

6.13 Mark’s Boar: I Am A Dreamer

7.20 Serenading: History Writer

7.53 Khatm

As ever, please leave your naps/tips by making a comment below. All welcome, especially newcomers; just enter a name when asked so we know who is who. No prizes, but it’s good fun here among some seasoned punters, most of whom spent years commenting at the Guardian on the original Talking Horses forum, which has now been heavily cut back.

If you tip a winner, please use the Winners thread to highlight your result and we’ll put you on the Hitlist next day. There is a Winners thread for each month.

We also have a Lounge thread for general chat, though as a forum we are a bit limited to what WordPress, our host here, provides as far as structure goes.

Thanks for looking in. Good luck with your bets today, but please bear in mind that this is meant to be ‘fun’. There are many wise heads posting tips here and we haven’t yet gone a day without somebody tipping a winner. But never bet more than you can afford to lose. Small stakes can still produce wide smiles.

All the best
Joe

25 comments

  1. I don’t think David OMeara has quite found the key to Khagan yet. A well handicapped horse when he does. Narrowly beaten in a group 2 in France, when Fabre had him.
    Selection. Khagan ew Doncaster 7.53. 14/1.

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  2. GIVE IT SOME TEDDY did me a favour on Sunday at a decent price. However, SWEET BELIEVER is the Nap at Redcar 2.50, win bet at evens (early price), as the horse is probably one or two classes above TED. This is in a double with THOMAS LANFIERE Brighton 3.00 at 3/1, win beat also.
    Tomorrow sees the return of one of my banker horses of last season, TARNAWA in the 17.20 at Leopardstown. 2/13 is not a working man’s price, particularly as the word is that the horse is not as forward as this time last year. Therefore, my TRIUMPH HURDLE AP bet, BENAUD has been backed ew at 10s.

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    1. I am with you in opposing Tarwnana as I don’t remember a Weld Horse being successful on her 5 yo debut at odds of 1/6.
      I hate warm-up Races.
      I checked out important dates for Richie Benaud earlier but I am afraid this is about the only date in the 365 day Roman Calendar that he didn’t break some Cricket record or was born, married or died.
      That won’t put me off.
      I am with you on Benaud for this race e.w.
      Show me someone who has won an AP Bet on the Triumph Hurdle and I will show you a liar.
      It defies the laws of Physics.
      I think it is 33 and counting.
      What year was Broadsword?

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      1. Fair point EGS on the Triumph. However, that race occasionally throws up a calculated surprise with a flat profile. It’s a small stakes interest after something was said after the Ascot race.
        Good luck today.

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      2. I had £2/50 EW on Mysilv in ’94 @ 33s – won at 2/1.
        I had rang up (Stan James probably) for a £5 first scorer bet on a long forgotten Sunday Sky game. In those days you had to put a minimum of £10 on so I made it up with the Mysilv bet – she had won impressively the previous day (December 93?).
        Probably the last winner I have had in the race!

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  3. Going a bit wild on Thursday.

    3 jockeys I think are riding very well currently are Oisin Murphy/ William Buick and Rossa Ryan. They ride at different tracks and I have one from each at a short price for a 10-1 treble.
    Big Boy Bobby 2.00 Brighton
    Dig Two 2.40 Yarmouth
    Bullet force 6.27 Sandown

    Sandowns card looks most appealing for my bets so I have 2 there for my Nap and NB

    5.27 – Prince of hearts 5-1 NB

    Rod millmans horse has got some decent form and has had two runs at 1m4F and drops back to 1M2F. This trip could be ideal. Ground is ok. Lightly raced 5 yo but up against two potentially progressive 3yo.

    7.37 Royal tribute 10-1 EW Nap

    Horse has been gelded and has rossa Ryan on. Race looks weak and I think he is overpriced. Skybet offering 4 places.

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  4. I know we are all like Infants on Christmas Eve with the expectation of Shergar Cup Day (or as I call it ‘It’s a Knockout’) but take deep breaths as there is still Racing to be found beforehand.
    Ryan Moore appears to have found his Mojo.
    He probably has come to Leopardstown to check out ‘Changingoftheguard’ but I have looked at the chances of all 8 Horses in the 16.45 at Leopardstown and concluded that all 8 have a 12.5 % of winning. This took me 4 hours of ruminating and I doubt I can go back to sleep.
    He is also aboard Handel who strikes me as a Rogue in the 17.50.
    My Nap is a straight forecast of Tipperary Moon to beat Kanoor who ran 2 days ago in the 18.55 at Leopardstown.
    I don’t want your pity, btw.

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    1. The Shergar Cup, the Racing League – what more do we want?

      A better racing calendar with less racing, better prize money and a sport for the racing industry and the bookies.

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  5. Congratulations again to the winners yesterday, there are some excellent runs of Tips at the moment. Superb stuff. I’m going to go for a shorty – Big Boy Bobby Brighton ( Back of two). Its actually 2.10 but felt like 5 Bs.

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  6. Ballintoy Harbour in the 5.42 at Doncaster. Won well last time at Newmarket (2nd horse has won twice since) and should be suited to a fast 5f here.

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  7. Sandown on a Thursday evening, count me in!!

    Biggles seems ready for some heroics in the last looking at the price collapse, maybe wearing “Dark Specs” as some sort of secret agent disguise as that also seems to be fancied in the penultimate race, however the nap goes to Farhan who seemed to relish the hill at Ponte last season which augurs well for a little gentle climb up Esher High Street this evening.

    As for the Shergar Cup.. give me strength it is an absolute aberration.

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    1. Inspired by Joe, I’ve gone for some cheeky multiples TTC at Sandown, the 3 mentioned above with the first 2 winners and the favourite in the next. My question to you sages is, at what point do you cash out if ever on multiples?? I feel the algorithms are heavily weighted towards the bookmaker so never bother but am prepared to be persuaded if anyone can shed a more scientific light on things. Thanks.

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      1. I have cashed out several times. I use the online bet calculator whether it be doubles, trebles, Yankee, etc. It all depends on the odds of the final runner(s). If they are longish and I can make a goodish profit on the stake, I cash out. If they are shortish, I am more likely to hang on in the hope of upping the profit. Betfair is good as you can take partial cashouts ona sliding scale and still gain from later winners. Historically, I have been disappointed many more times by leaving the bet to run. I have no belief whatsoever in “being on a roll”.

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        1. Hi Quai, thanks for the insight. All a bit hypothetical in the end as I went win not e/w but still made a few bob on the night!!

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  8. I wonder if MANNIX in the 4.45 Leopardstown is named after Joe Mannix, the Los Angeles based detective series that ran on tv from ‘67 to 75? This one and CANNON were my favorites back in the good old days.

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  9. I agree that the betfair partial cash out is great. My usual bet is a patent with an each way treble to same stake. If you get the first two up you can make a good profit by partially or fully cashing out either bet. Even the first winner coming in and a reasonable price often allows the opportunity to cash out a bit more than stake and let the rest run for still a fair bet.

    Partial cash out also great for football where late goals can bring tears

    Like

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