Talking Horses Monday September 13th 2021

Good to see Dirty Northerner saving the day for the Hitlist yesterday with a winning 7/2 nap. Georgia. Also, on catchup from Saturday, Mickle landed another nap in Victory Chime at 3/1. Fine work, gents.

The Blog’s nap Boomshala won at 13/8

If I’ve missed anyone, please give me a shout via the September Winners thread.

The Blog’s nap today is Admiral’s Sunset in the 2.50 at Worcester at 9/2.

As ever, please leave your naps/tips by making a comment below. All welcome, especially newcomers; just enter a name when asked so we know who is who. No prizes, but it’s good fun here among some seasoned punters, most of whom spent years commenting at The Guardian on the original Talking Horses forum, which has now been heavily cut back.

If you tip a winner, please use the Winners thread to highlight your result and we’ll put you on the Hitlist next day. There is a Winners Thread for each month.


What This Blog Is For

As mentioned above this long-running Steeplechasing blog was adapted in a hurry when The Guardian announced they were cutting back on their (usually) daily Talking Horses section. Many punters had gathered there over the years to exchange ideas and fancies. Part of the adapting we had to do at the start of this blog was restricting this daily main article to tips/naps, while we found our feet regarding house rules, moderation and stuff like that.

We are now in a position to open this main daily article to all subjects. It can be very enjoyable when something is latched onto by our knowledgeable, quick-witted posters as they indulge in wordplay and jousting. We still want tips of course, from those who want to tip. It’s by no means an obligation.

If you do post a tip/nap, just include it with whatever subject you are discussing, preferably at the foot of your post. So long as you remember to come back after a winner and put the details of that win in the monthly Winners Thread, then we can include you on the Hitlist in the next day’s main article.

General guidance: No swearing, please. We’re not prudes, it’s just that there is wide scope in the swearword lexicon and we do not have moderators (and hope we’ll never need them). Also, please keep discussions on politics and religion to The Lounge section, though brief references to these subjects in the main article are not forbidden.

Thanks for looking in. If you are betting, especially if you follow our tipsters, good luck with your bets, but please bear in mind that this is meant to be ‘fun’. There are many wise heads posting tips here and we haven’t yet gone a day without somebody tipping a winner. But never bet more than you can afford to lose. Small stakes can still produce wide smiles.

All the best
Joe

Moderator Rules

Any post drawn to my attention that I deem unsuitable will be deleted or edited, depending on the content.

Ask a dozen individuals what they deem suitable for anything and you’ll probably get 12 different answers. So, decisions will be made on my judgement. In the altered post, I will explain my reasons for adjusting/deleting a post and there will be no appeal, unless I have made a blunder (not impossible).

I do not always have the time to read every post, so, if you believe a post needs moderated, please use the ‘contact me‘ form.

Many thanks.

Joe

23 comments

  1. Mickle had a great week. A solid tipster. Take a bow.

    Nowt from me until the real racing begins. However, I may grace Redcar with my presence on Tuesday, if only to tick it off the list.

    Follow GEORGIA in France. Won with something in hand today.

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  2. Thanks for compliment DNB but suspect just having a good run and due a bad one. Thunderoad in the 3.15 at Brighton will be on a last chance powerdrive.

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  3. I know this is meant to be one of the hottest Arcs ever but I think that idea will Peter out.
    Deep Bond showed the Japanese strength in depth yesterday.
    Just when there will be no Japanese people in attendance at Longchamp I am thinking a Japanese runner against a Golden British/Irish Generation can do it. Don’t know the name yet as Japan do no-shows.

    I am also going to have my first bet on Snowfall for the Arc as she may now be good odds. She will keep me interested to the 3F pole and that’s enough for me.
    She might start to go backwards at that point but if for 80% of a Race you thought you had an interest can you complain?

    I thought the lack of pace in the G1s over the weekend was fraudulent.
    I did not tune in to watch in 2 and 3 Furlong sprints from a running start. I include that “greatest ever race”. No. It was horrible to watch. There should have been 7 Horses in that race with 2 Ballydoyle Pacemakers.
    That would stopped SMB crossing like a Crab to block Tarnawa. With proper pacing he would have just eased to the line as he had the best engine.

    The pace in the Vermeille was something else. I am thinking Jonathan is on to something with Alligators being unleashed after the Horses are unleashed from their traps.

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    1. Deep Bonds time was almost identical to the time of the winner in Snowfalls race. The pace angle is a red herring, she’s lobbed along in her races and quickened far enough out previously, for whatever reason physically she didn’t produce that.Was she in ,or about to break in season ? She didn’t seem to move well either.

      It’s the time of year when fillies do go funny on you and now that Regumate is banned here and in France it’s bloody hard to keep them spot on .

      To my eye pre race Snowfall looked over the top and nothing like she did at York and Epsom.Shes ran 3 consecutive races recording over 100 on the clock which is just exceptional for a filly ,one fast run effects a horses system bad enough.
      The key statement yesterday was when asked if Snowfall felt as well as she did at Epsom Frankie said obviously not. In effect shes hit her best not twice but thrice on the bounce and its down from there.
      All that said ,like Love before her, what has she beaten ,nothing . Unlike Love she’s yet to meet genuine G1 class ,colt or filly and as in Loves case I think the far quicker early pace will do to her exactly what it’s done to Love,given a true picture of her ability.

      Was she ever going for the Arc ,if she was it was poor race planning .

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    2. Pace in the National looked strong, set by G1 winner Ebro River. Maybe Point Lonsdale paid the price there for being up there with him, thus leaving himself vulnerable to the finishing burst from Native Trail. It looked impressive from the Godolphin horse + he’ll take some beating in the Dewhurst.

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    3. I assumed Moore had won two advantages from that move right – deliberate or accidental, or a combination of those – not only did he trouble Tarnawa but he he denied the ultra-game Poetic Flare a close opponent. That being said, I think SMB won with a bit in hand. He’s hugely likeable, though I love Poetic Flare for his guts.

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  4. I don’t subscribe to the theory that he’s the world’s fastest crab. SMB was just having a bad day and didn’t want the photographers on the side to take his picture (to paraphrase the REM song) – trying to find an image of SMB swerving in their direction and failing I discovered that the actual SMB has a famous set of horse statues so he was very aptly named by Sue Magnier -credit where it’s due and all that. Indeed most of the top-class ones have good names – that makes yesterday’s débâcle for Ballydoyle even more galling . Now Point Lonsdale…is he one to give up on for the Guineas. Just as I think Reach for the Moon can’t be discounted for the Derby on the basis of a head defeat in a 2yo race surely one muddling 7f effort doesn’t mean he won’t have 8f pace next spring?

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  5. it was indeed a fine Mickle week, well played. Lets hope it continues with your Springsteen inspired tip – pop songs and dragons seem to be recurring themes. I’ll be early beaten or successful today as i’m on the 1.15 at Worcester and Head On – 13 to 8 at the minute.

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  6. Good morning all,

    It’s Monday and I’m in the mood for a few multiple bets, so that’s what I’m going to do!

    1)Lucky 15 – Thirsk 1.30 Make A Prophet, 3.40 Elegant Erin, Kempton 6.15 Renegade Rose, 6.45 Fiorina
    2)Lucky 15 – Thirsk 3.40 Lilikoi, Brighton 5.00 Rita The Cheetah, Kempton 4.45 Cheese The One, 7.15 Cry Havoc
    3)Lucky 15 – Brighton 2.10 Mamillius, 2.40 Just An Inkling, Thirsk 3.40 Key Look, 4.15 Rum Runner

    Hoping for a winner or two!

    Good luck to everyone with your bets!
    x

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Well done to the hitlist saviours.. Woodlands Charm (1.30 Thirsk) is back again in another class 6 nursery after I napped it a few weeks back for the sparkling Tinkler yard. 4/1, 5 places so perhaps a safety ew nap in the very unlikely case that five will be too good for it. Nb: Bathiva, 9/4 at Worcester (2.50) for the hat-trick for FOB seems like good value. Best of luck …

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    1. Just a note on the Woodlands Charm race- there is money for a Mick Channon horse on its handicap debut Pneumatic (Marquand on board) which may be significant , 6/1 currently.

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  8. I was most impressed by Hurricane Lane on Saturday and it set me wondering about his sole defeat, when 3rd in The Derby. It’s great to see how top horses handle different tracks, but if the objective is pinpointing the top 3-y-o, would Epsom be the choice these days? Adayar is a cracking horses, but I just wonder if Hurricane Lane is as far behind him as the ratings, and the Derby result, suggest?

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    1. Great point Joe. There is no way that you could build a racecourse like Epsom these days, the HSE would be on permadefibs!! You have to actually go to Epsom I think to truly appreciate the craziness of the course, particularly compared with some of the blander ovals.

      Push The Tempo is the latest candidate for the booby prize.

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  9. Wasn’t the losing a shoe seen as more significant than the course? Vibes are a funny thing but I got the impression that the Appleby team were slightly surprised that Adayar beat Hurricane Lane. Of course Adayar might have kept on improving since and will confirm the form. It will be interesting to see Buick’s selection. I’m swaying towards Hurricane but that is probably because I was with him for a fair amount in the Derby and I’m trying to convince myself I was right.

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    1. I am of course going to quote the great Tesio and ask is he still right?
      “The Thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians, or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby. If you base your criteria on anything else, you will get something else, not the Thoroughbred”.
      The quote probably does not fully stand the test of time. Should it be run on a galloping course? No.The Irish Derby can redeem any unfortunate who doesn’t act at Epsom.
      Epsom is meant to measure speed, stamina (Vincent pointed out that more stamina is needed at Epsom to the Curragh contrary to visual evidence. The times are slower), balance and above all agility and wit.
      If it wasn’t at Epsom it would not be the Derby and not measuring agility and wit.
      Coolmore certainly make it a priority and they must know how to make a Stallion.
      Here are a list of the successful Stallions who won the Derby in the last 20 years; Galileo, High Chaparral, Motivator (if only for Treve), Authorized (if only for Tiger Roll), New Approach, Sea the Stars, Camelot and Australia.
      I suspect the cumulative Stallion fees of the Prix Du Jockey Club winners are higher in that time period and the real way to charge a high Stallion fee is to stand a precocious 2 year old who didn’t race at 3.
      Nevertheless I think Epsom still does what it says on the tin.
      If Hurricane lane (who actually lost 2 shoes, I believe) came back for the Coronation Cup next year would you back him even knowing all 4 shoes stayed on?
      Would you back him in the Breeders Cup at Del Mar or the HK Vase this year where races can be won or lost on the bends with multiple changes of lead foot?
      He is a fantastic Horse and may be the equal of Adayar or better over most courses but Epsom consistently produces the best winner on the day within it’s construct (Yes, I know there are Dancing Brave fans out there).

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      1. All else being equal, yes, I’d back Hurricane Lane at Epsom. And elsewhere, including the tracks you mentioned. He’s a better and still improving horse than he was in June. Tesio’s quote is nonsense, really. His point is a dressed up version of breed the best to the best and hope for the best. To suggest that thoroughbreds wouldn’t exist if Epsom (or The Derby) didn’t is ridiculous.

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  10. Today’s NAP is Modern Artist, 6/1 or so, 6.15 Kempton.

    Well done to yesterday’s winning tipsters. Some very consistent tipping .

    I enjoyed reading the update on the syndicate a few days ago.

    Some excellent instructive posts today on the weekends races.

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  11. My each way Patent on Ruth Carrs runners today one 3rd…… at 20/1 beaten half a length….yet her shorter priced ones didn’t make a place…cynical but am sure that some of her horses don’t run well enough until that next run when it is a 20/1 or 33/1 shot then suddenly romps home.

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