Talking Horses Sunday October 3rd 2021

A quiet day on the winner front yesterday, with just The Steelman on the Hitlist with his NB Real World: advised 7/2 (SP 5/4) Well done Steelman.

The blog’s nap ran poorly.

If I’ve missed anyone, please give me a shout via the Winners thread.

The blog’s nap today is Love EW. I backed her at biggish prices for the Arc last year where she was a late withdrawal. Connections have always believed she doesn’t want soft ground, but I’m not so sure. What I am confident about is her need of a stamina test the older she gets. With biblical rainfall forecast, she will get that for sure. 22/1 EW to 5 places with Skybet.

I love Adayar and Hurricane Lane and find it hard to separate them on talent. But I heard J Doyle interviewed today and, unbidden, he mentioned that Hurricane Lane was fine and his wind was ok. That’s the first time I’ve seen anything highlighting a possible problem with his wind, though I might just have misread something that was really nothing. But Paris on Arc day in awful ground is not a place for anything but the soundest in wind and limb.

As ever, please leave your naps/tips by making a comment below. All welcome, especially newcomers; just enter a name when asked so we know who is who. No prizes, but it’s good fun here among some seasoned punters, most of whom spent years commenting at The Guardian on the original Talking Horses forum, which has now been heavily cut back.

If you tip a winner, please use the Winners thread to highlight your result and we’ll put you on the Hitlist next day. There is a Winners Thread for each month.


What This Blog Is For

As mentioned above this long-running Steeplechasing blog was adapted in a hurry when The Guardian announced they were cutting back on their (usually) daily Talking Horses section. Many punters had gathered there over the years to exchange ideas and fancies. Part of the adapting we had to do at the start of this blog was restricting this daily main article to tips/naps, while we found our feet regarding house rules, moderation and stuff like that.

We are now in a position to open this main daily article to all subjects. It can be very enjoyable when something is latched onto by our knowledgeable, quick-witted posters as they indulge in wordplay and jousting. We still want tips of course, from those who want to tip. It’s by no means an obligation.

If you do post a tip/nap, just include it with whatever subject you are discussing, preferably at the foot of your post. So long as you remember to come back after a winner and put the details of that win in the monthly Winners Thread, then we can include you on the Hitlist in the next day’s main article.

General guidance: No swearing, please. We’re not prudes, it’s just that there is wide scope in the swearword lexicon and we do not have moderators (and hope we’ll never need them). Also, please keep discussions on politics and religion to The Lounge section, though brief references to these subjects in the main article are not forbidden.

Thanks for looking in. If you are betting, especially if you follow our tipsters, good luck with your bets, but please bear in mind that this is meant to be ‘fun’. There are many wise heads posting tips here and we haven’t yet gone a day without somebody tipping a winner. But never bet more than you can afford to lose. Small stakes can still produce wide smiles.

All the best
Joe

36 comments

  1. i can’t wait to watch the arc tomorrow . My side bet is Hurricane lane. Here’s hoping D does it again, I’m on. Good luck

    Like

  2. I really hope Dermot Weld and The Aga win … they have contributed so much to racing.
    However, as a saver E/W what about Alenquer? Haggas horses are flying.

    Like

  3. Love is out joe. Temperature.

    Looks like Hurricane lane coming in as the new favorite on the exchange but it’s still early for the market.

    At the very least it’s going to be testing tommrow. At the most a complete Bog.

    My bets will stick to Longchamp and most will he Ew with decent places offered.

    1.50 – Angel Blue 13-2 EW NB
    At Goodwood this colt was sweating up and keen.The race wasn’t the strongest but he liked the ground and I think the step up to 1m will suit given his breeding. Given how many runs early in season He has been given a break to freshen up.

    3.05 -My usual scattergun of AP bets. Adayar win bet/ Raabihah ew bet/ Chrono G ew. Plenty said on these.

    3.50 Grand glory 8-1 ew
    Comes into the race in better form than last year. Ground doesn’t hold many fears. Not sure why she is double the price of the Fav Audarya.
    Tight race though and I fear the 3yos

    4.25 Lady in France 33-1 EW
    Speculative. Could have been aimed at this all season. Ok last run. Handles the ground. Draw ok?
    Suesa win bet also as she must go close after racing on wrong side at York.

    5.00 Nyord 14-1 ew NAP
    Wants the deep ground and comes to form this time of year. Yard been flying and 7F not an issue if it’s really deep which it will be.

    Lifechanger EW lucky 15 consists of Raabihah, Nyord, lady of France and Grand glory. Otherwise it’s a few quid on all of the above and some exciting races to watch.

    Good luck folks

    Like

    1. Well that’s a decent start! Nice work. I was going to follow you in, but I’m stuck in Heathrow, and the paternalistic wifi here refuses to let you access betting sites. Perhaps it’ll turn out to be for the best…

      Like

  4. Sadly I think Love’s been taken out, Joe. Hopefully she recovers and they find some nice quick ground at the Breeders Cup for her to finish her career in style – what a tonic she was last season (not quite at that level this term even if they were much tougher assignments) so she deserves that. On to the 3.05 Longchamp – really one for the antepost-wallahs with the value squeezed out of the likeliest winners by now . Bookies are giving out extra places (Paddy’s doing 5 for example) so a better day for the more speculative fancies like Raabihah or Sealiway (my preferred e/w shout at 40s). On good ground I’d probably go extra on my AP bet on Tarnawa (well said Marya btw) and nap it, will be having a saver on Hurricane Lane though given the likely ‘very soft’ conditions. Good luck to all whichever you plump for! The nap is SUESA in the Abbaye (4.25) – had too much to do last time I napped her in the Nunthorpe, conditions in her favour. NB: Kinross 13/2 in the Forêt (5.00), conditions should be up his street and Dettori on board.

    Like

  5. My eyes today will be focused on Uttoxeter. No, not really.
    I have been to every Arc since 2006 bar the obvious exception when I couldn’t visit a large field in the Bois de Boulogne last year but could work in known highly infectious settings.
    I habitually arrive early so I can get my stall out and avoid the alleged mayhem that Greg Wood will describe tomorrow from things he has read on Twitter.
    I must sat that this is the most greyest, dank Longchamp in my memory. Constant drizzle since yesterday morning. Not heavy but no let up.
    Even though I am early I can tell the attendance will be poor and Parisians will not arrive in large numbers in their Sunday best to see one race and then leave.
    Aside from the dispiriting weather I think this is also the worst Arc card ever.
    Goldikova could still leave her breeding shed and win that Foret. I think the useless Ballydoyle maiden could win the Lagadere as if we are back in the Stone Age.
    My nap is in that race; Rocchigiani at 13.50 (GMT) at 18/1 as he has a German Pedigree and we know they all love soft ground and I like to back a May Foal in October.
    The favourite should be taken on as it is a War Front.
    I take on War Fronts anyway even if the official going is concrete as they are really dislikeable.

    Like

      1. The ground is not that bad ,it was riding 4 secs slow per mile yesterday and they were getting through it ok as it wasnt holding .
        The press reaction to it is way over the top

        Like

    1. Could you pop down the straight and let me know if that false rail is still there please .Tom’s going to make a beeline for it if it is .

      Like

      1. Dilton,
        2 years is a long time. I am sitting in an unexpected place and cannot orientate myself and walking down to look for a false rail would be too much but I can’t see one.

        Like

    2. EGS, thanks for the latest information and I trust you have a wonderful day.

      However, since you’re there early I need you to do a small favor. I’d like you to head out to where the runners for the Arc are being stabled, measure their hoof sizes, and get the weight of each horse plus the weight declared for each jockey, then divide the total weight by the hoof size and ascertain the weight per hoof size. You can do it in either lbs per square inch or kilos per square cm, your choice, I will then blindly back the horse with the lowest value. Thanks in advance.

      I backed Saffron Beach in the 1000G and she came second to Mother Earth, Yesterday I backed Mother Earth, and she came second to Saffron Beach. C’est La Vie.

      Today’s nap is TALE OF MINESHAFT in the 19:48 at Woodbine. ML odds 4/1.

      P.S, Would you please stand by the winning post and jump up and down at the finish of the Arc?

      Like

      1. Jonathan
        I think Chrono Genesis has a small hoof but Broome has a bigger one and is that helpful?
        I think you may have a thesis on this. I am not Joking as I never joke. We do need research on Hoof size as I am not happy with the evidence as it stands

        Like

  6. I tried to get some money onto Hurricane Lane at 6-1 in the last couple of days, but all my doubles failed (quite dramatically in some cases), but can’t bring myself to back at 5-2 today.
    My nominal NAP is Adayar (100-30).
    Have AP bets too…. Good luck.

    Like

  7. On a day that feels a little like Christmas, DN’s nails no longer exist as the AP bets could struggle with the going. However, it’s interesting to see Laurent Barbarin tipping BUBBLE GIFT each way, as I mentioned this horse during the week. So, the nap is a SPACE BLUES in the Foret and the NB is ANCIENT ROME in the Lagadere.

    Like

  8. Hi,
    Today’s nap is same as Harrys. Hello judge at evens Kelso 3.00. Let’s hope we are both correct. My NB is Adayar in the big one.

    Like

  9. There’s been money for A Case of You in the Abbaye. I believe he was supplemented for this and had a good look at the form. But I can see no reason he’d turn around the result with Romantic Proposal from last time, and she is now a few points longer than the two-years-younger challenger.

    Romantic Proposal is on her first foreign track today (10 of her last 11 runs have been at The Curragh) so it’s impossible to say how she’ll travel. But A Case of You ran his worst rating since his debut on his sole overseas trip (Ascot in June). Whether that was down to not being a good traveller, we don’t know, but it is a piece of evidence in the puzzle. Both horses are improving, and I think the value lies in the 12/1 or so EW to 5 places (Skybet) with Romantic Proposal.

    Like

      1. Aye … plenty times. It turns out that the old adage A little knowledge is a dangerous thing is spot on here. I relied too much on that poor run at Ascot. It looks like Curragh lover Romantic Proposal is the homebird!

        Like

  10. Well, an exciting Arc, really enjoyed it, with the very soft/heavy I thought we might be in for a shock (though not as bad as last year) – I genuinely thought about a small EW on the winner, but if I’m honest with myself, I thought about bets on 75% of the field!!

    Like

  11. Safe to save I’ve done my Brains today. NB winner helped but Frankie getting chinned on the Filly and the arc going to the outsider has hurt the betting bank for sure!

    A few days away from the bets and il be back ….

    Like

  12. I don’t believe in all that crying in to spilt milk stuff but I I got all that German Pedigre stuff correct on an earlier Race but not on the 66/1 Arc shot even though I was 100% certain it would win (I swear to God even though I didn’t lay a penny on it)
    A bizarre Race that just felt it was going to be one of those 0-0 away draws in the CL.
    I was shocked that Tarnawa finished second as I like her but had lost interest.

    Like

    1. What about that Mendizabal ride on Audarya – had a slight touch of your namesake, El Gran Senor in the Derby about it I thought. Cruising, cruising , cruising except he ended up not even placing!

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.