Talking Horses Tuesday October 19th 2021

Mickle maintains his lengthy Hitlist run with winning nap Stag Horn at 4/7. Well done. Rakib tipped a nice winner in his EW selection Astrophysicist, advised at 9/1, SP 17/2. Good work.

If I’ve missed anyone please leave a comment on the Winners thread.

The blog’s nap Royaume Uni won at 4/7 (advised at 11/10). Tuesday’s nap is Gleno at 15/8 BOG in the 2.40 Exeter.

Good luck

Joe

36 comments

  1. Yesterday it was reported that Ponte was good to soft when i placed my tips but watching a couple of races it appeared to be more soft verging on heavy….anyway that’s my excuse…might be better tipping seahorses if the weather for the next week is to be believed..

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  2. Naturally I did Royaume Uni as I wasn’t born yesterday. 4/7.
    I think Joe may be winning his own competition and that is an uncomfortable feeling. 4/7. It is my possibly my favourite starting odds aside from 13/8.
    Are Mickle, Rakib and David all on form? Do they want to win the October Winners list or not?
    I am going for broke as I do.
    There is no other outlet than the 13.45 at Gowran Park tomorrow. She is by Deep Impact and her name has a weirdly Native American rather than Japanese name as Sue Magnier loves the the Navajo Tribe.
    Navajo Warrior in the 13.45 is my nap.

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    1. EGS, 2 definite Dragons running tomorrow which should lose (#8 and #9 according to your theory of 9 consecutive losers before a winner). But, I need a ruling on the 8:30 at Kempton. Is Lady Pendragon a dragon or merely masquerading as one?

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    2. Am I on form? Bear with me while I ponder that tricky question…thats the nap btw: Bearwith, 13/8, 6.00 Kempton. Trying to be eco-friendly and save the planet, the nb (each-way) is a recycled nap from last week, Midgetonamission, 13/2, 5.30 also at Kempton. Not with Mr Buick who failed in his mission that day, coming second to the favourite in this race. They reoppose on the usual shifted terms so something about value…

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  3. There were a few short winners about yesterday at Plumpton and I bet a couple but napped the wrong one. Toss of a coin sometimes.. The coin tosd for tomorrow is between 2 jonjo horses at Exeter. Pens man in the 305 and La tillan in the 2.10…coin in the air, it spins and lands heads. The latter is the nap then.. Doubtless have an interest in both

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    1. I thought that was victory to the handicapper re Sergeant’s race. He wasn’t caught napping. All that cheekiness we noted the race before and they still got put up 8 lbs! That and maybe a bit of extra flat speed from the other horse made the diff.

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        1. Mitch went to soon ,had to really the way he was travelling and the way the pace collapsed , the horse has one run ,hits the front and stops . He will be better up in class off a lightweight with the stronger pace to help him settle early.
          Weve just bought his half brother at the Baden Baden sale for 20k.

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    1. As a child in the 60s (not of the 60s), every Sunday on the BBC Light Programme I used to listen to one of the various comedy shows. I may not have understood the subtleties of The Navy Lark and Round The Horne, but I knew enough to realize that The Clitheroe Kid was an utter load of rubbish.

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  4. I’ll go EW (4 places 11/2) Bontia B in 3.05 Yarmouth – think it should go close to winning and (famous last words) the 4 places make it a bet to nothing.

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  5. Best of luck everyone. Just noticed a couple of failed naps from the last few weeks are also out strutting their stuff again : Youceeyouceecee at Gowran Park 3.30, a measly 9/2 compared to the 33s (which went down to 14s in a sudden plunge before the off, just failed to rally to a place) lto. And Plastic Paddy 4.00 Newc., 9/4. Will give them a chance to redeem themselves in an e/w double.

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  6. I think it is obscene that Bookies qoute Native Trail as 8/1 co-fav as they did with Pinatubo in the full knowledge he was 1,000/1 to show up.
    Godolphin may have a Derby runner Life in Motion just about to start at the obscenely early time of 11.20 (12.20 French time is still ridiculous) and I think it is possibly better than a G3.

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    1. Or not.
      A Race won by a Horse named after a skin disease.
      This is not a second language lost in translation issue. Rosacea is the accepted Internatinal Latin name for a debilitating skin condition and should not be the name of a Horse.
      He did win well, though.

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    2. No we don’t mention the P word these days, egs. 🤫 Life in Motion went backwards in the straight. Maybe the later start time of the Derby will play to its strengths more or like me needs a coffee to get going in the morning… possibly a sleepy fellow. Re Native Trail Appleby seemed pretty sure in a RacingTV interview that that and Coroebus wouldn’t step up much in trip next year. It’s not an exact science though is it. You’d think Goldspur would be in their thoughts more of course and the other one in that tight Newmarket finish.

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    3. Just to be contrary EGS (as if!) if we take your view that Native Trail has got little chance of winning the Derby (I agree btw) then wouldn’t it make more sense to price him up at 25/1/33/1/40/1 or whatever in order to attract speculative punts? Surely the 8/1 means they’ll take very few bets on something you think is 1,000/1 to show up. Or does it work that because he’s relatively short some people will make ante-post bets blind? But surely Ante-post betters are by their nature fairly clued up? Or is it that they’ve taken £2.50 ew and have cut accordingly? Genuinely a bit confused.

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      1. I agree.
        Quotes of 100/1 if you sign up to a new account seems the sensible thing for a Bookies but you can always get really foolish punters.
        I backed Magna Grecia after his debut for both the Guineas and Derby just before checking he was by Invincible Spirit.
        He was 33/1 for the Derby and I thought I was buying money.
        Pinatubo would have been around 5/1 for the Derby and it is no less shocking that the 8/1 on Native Trail. This tactic can rope in a lot of mugs.

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  7. Nap is CAPTAIN VALLO in the 14:50 at Newcastle (around 7/2). Alan’s NB Jordan Electric is 7lbs better off for a 3 lengths beating in their last race and may be better value.

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  8. Also spotted this…plus they are drawn next to each other….not sure if there is any real draw bias at Newcastle but at least they will be on equal terms from the draw..

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  9. Sebastopol (Exeter 1.00) 2/1 nap. Winning pointer, jumps well, loves top of the ground, quite possibly in-form Tom Lacey’s top novice chaser for this season. And Mick Pastor has beaten nothing in a series of egg and spoon races.

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    1. I watched that Race on Bet365 which confirms my belief that those who trade on in-race live odds are aged under 6. It is around that age that you finally grasp that the Horse leading may not be certain to win and a Horse like The Minstrel or Alleged are biding their time and running in slipstreams.
      Sebastopol took the lead 2 or 3 times by 2 lengths and each time the 6 year olds contracted his odds to 2/5 despite Mick Pastor clearly travelling better.
      A knee jerk reaction each time and something for me to consider for future betting purposes.
      I may never be capable of winning a monthly Hitlist but I can compete with 6 year olds.

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      1. That’s six consecutive silver medals for Sebastopol. Is this a record?

        In the next race Soul Icon won again, following up a maiden win two weeks ago off BHA 73. Now this has echoes of Keiran Burke’s legendary exploits with Hunt Ball ten years ago. Just to remind you, he ran up a monster sequence of handicap chase wins, beginning off a mark of 69 at Folkestone (1lb out of the handicap) and culminating in a win (his seventh in four months) at Cheltenham off 142, for which the handicapper slapped a 12lb rise on him. (He met defeat only once, at Plumpton by three parts of a length when on desperate ground he received a poor ride by an amateur jockey.) This new mark forced him into graded company, and he then ran third in the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl, when he probably didn’t quite stay the 3m1f trip. His handicap mark that season had seen an overall rise of 86lbs! Not surprisingly he was saddled with crushing burdens in the mid 150s the following season, winning just once more before going to the States on a fruitless mission, never finding proper jumping ground out there. Ultimately he came back and joined Nicky Henderson who tried manfully to rekindle the spark but the horse was beaten by the handicapper. The master of Seven Barrows finally sent Hunt Ball back over hurdles for a brief and glorious coda, and the old boy won his final three races, all novice hurdles at short prices!

        I’m not saying Soul Icon will do the same, but Keiran Burke has the ability to improve an ordinary horse out of all recognition, so watch this space.

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        1. Harry,
          I am afraid that is not how it works.
          You have already committed yourself to saying Soul Icon is the next Hunt Ball and that is your entire reputation on the line.
          I will hold off till his last 3 Novice Hurdles but do not be surprised if you get grief on this Forum in the interim from those less patient.

          I was struck by the form of 222222 (to infinity) of Sebastopol and I thought it cruel to enter a Horse in a 2 runner race who only has learnt one thing in life.
          Great grub when you go home if you make sure you come 2nd.
          Too much Carrot and not enough Stick. Only a trailing Alligator may provide the necessary stick.

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          1. I know that as a disciple of Coolmore you must have the patience of a saint. But not St Sebastian, though, as Sebastopol doesn’t mean ‘Sebastian’s city’ as you would think. The lovely lad who became a target for the bowmen of Rome actually hailed from Sivas in modern-day Turkey. Seb definitely came second in that confrontation.

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      1. Sebastopol is going to be a running theme as nobody on this Forum ignores a 2222222.
        I will do all my best on this topic but I know there are wiser heads who can do more to provide the same level of Science I apply to things like Dragons.
        Sebastopol is now a Cult Hero already and broke the Internet twice.
        It might sound a tad grandiose but I have always identified with St. Sebastian and yes there has genuinely not been much fun going right back to Coolmore since 1984.
        If Luxembourg doesn’t provide hope this Saturday l.

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  10. Was on Lucinda Russell’s Engle Rock 16:35 New’c 14/1 but didn’t post as she has let me down so many times recently…also had a saver on Cam Hardie 3rd 80/1

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  11. I agree.
    Quotes of 100/1 if you sign up to a new account seems the sensible thing for a Bookie but you can always get really foolish punters.
    I backed Magna Grecia after his debut for both the Guineas and Derby just before checking he was by Invincible Spirit.
    He was 33/1 for the Derby and I thought I was buying money.
    Pinatubo would have been around 5/1 for the Derby and it is no less shocking that the 8/1 on Native Trail. This tactic can rope in a lot of mugs.

    Like

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