Talking Horses Wednesday October 27th 2021

Good to see David back on the Hitlist at this end of October, after a startling run in the first half of the month. David lands his nap Representing Bob, advised at 6/5, SP 11/10. Well done.

The winners David was knocking in through early October have been closely mirrored by Alan in the last week or two. Another big priced EW won today – Rapid Raider at 11/1 NB. Alan left a wise note and I republish it here:

… this is beginning to get a bit embarrassing another winner NB ew Rapid Raider 15:55 Bangor won at 11/1…just to explain … there are wiser heads on here…I don’t go deep into form, ratings, breeding etc…I follow some trainers and if they don’t have any runners, will have a quick glance at previous form and see if i can spot something that may have half a chance…The first couple of weeks in October were dismal for me but have since then picked up…many of you will have spotted that I don’t do short priced horses and prefer to try my luck on those below the radar…So everyone just be aware that I am on a lucky streak at the moment and it is just for fun..

That’s exactly the kind of attitude I like to see. It’s hugely important to stay grounded as both a tipster and a punter. You are never as good as you think you are and never as bad as you think you are. And it’s vital that we point out, as Alan has here, that there is no easy route to a fortune.

Visitors to the blog who might just be starting out in punting would do well to stop and think about that. Alan is obviously a good judge, as are most of the posters here, but his statement above is not false modesty. Good runs are brilliant, but the bad runs always come, always, to even things out. Keep your betting to whatever you can comfortably afford to lose. If you do have problems with gambling, or believe that you might be vulnerable to such problems, there are various ways of getting help. Please drop me a line via the Contact page, for a start. It’s confidential and I’ll do whatever I can.

If I’ve missed anyone, please give me a shout via the Winners thread.

The blog’s nap again ran an awful race yesterday and I’m hoping the improver Rogue Bear, nap, will win the 1.40 at Nottingham today: 11/8 BOG.

As ever, please leave your naps/tips by making a comment below. All welcome, especially newcomers; just enter a name when asked so we know who is who. No prizes, but it’s good fun here among some seasoned punters, most of whom spent years commenting at The Guardian on the original Talking Horses forum, which has now been heavily cut back.

If you tip a winner, please use the Winners thread to highlight your result and we’ll put you on the Hitlist next day. There is a Winners Thread for each month.


What This Blog Is For

As mentioned above this long-running Steeplechasing blog was adapted in a hurry when The Guardian announced they were cutting back on their (usually) daily Talking Horses section. Many punters had gathered there over the years to exchange ideas and fancies. Part of the adapting we had to do at the start of this blog was restricting this daily main article to tips/naps, while we found our feet regarding house rules, moderation and stuff like that.

We are now in a position to open this main daily article to all subjects. It can be very enjoyable when something is latched onto by our knowledgeable, quick-witted posters as they indulge in wordplay and jousting. We still want tips of course, from those who want to tip. It’s by no means an obligation.

If you do post a tip/nap, just include it with whatever subject you are discussing, preferably at the foot of your post. So long as you remember to come back after a winner and put the details of that win in the monthly Winners Thread, then we can include you on the Hitlist in the next day’s main article.

General guidance: No swearing, please. We’re not prudes, it’s just that there is wide scope in the swearword lexicon and we do not have moderators (and hope we’ll never need them). Also, please keep discussions on politics and religion to The Lounge section, though brief references to these subjects in the main article are not forbidden.

Thanks for looking in. If you are betting, especially if you follow our tipsters, good luck with your bets, but please bear in mind that this is meant to be ‘fun’. There are many wise heads posting tips here and we haven’t yet gone a day without somebody tipping a winner. But never bet more than you can afford to lose. Small stakes can still produce wide smiles.

All the best
Joe

38 comments

    1. The race was won well by East Asia for Ian Williams. He’d looked moderate on the dirt tracks of Dubai. The Sayed Hashish-owned horse is clearly much better on grass (cough).

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  1. Nap: Aliomanaa, 2/1 2.05 Fakenham. Looked very good lto for a certain red-hot trainer.
    NB: Island Falcon 5/2, 1.05 Nott. Appleby has a pair of newbies out too which might explain why this SBS horse isn’t shorter. Betting has to be watched obviously and worth noting that a certain Adayar won this last year so not a maiden to be sniffed at.

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  2. Thank you for the kind words Joe….unfortunately Lucinda does not have another runner until Friday but she only has one out on that day…please don’t back it into evens lol….nothing tickles my fancy today but will leave a couple of fun tips. Grandfather Tom 14:50 Notts EW Nap 9/1 Sky 4 plcs …My wife had a grandfather Tom and i also had a grandfather Tom no science involved.
    I like to follow horses that run well at Pontefract and Show Me Show Me ticks that box,,, 2nd last time out at Ponte .. .never ran at Notts before so who knows … NB ew 12/1 Sky 5 plcs.

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    1. Only a fool would disregard your tips out of hand , Al, whatever the thinking behind the tips. On a similar non-racing rationale I was going to tip Paddy’s Motorbike (240 Fak.) seeing as I almost got hit by one crossing the Finchley Road recently! There really are too many of these ‘steel horses’ roaming around town now. As for the equine variety the price has halved to 5/4 now for its chase debut which is a bit skimpy I think. Interesting race though.

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  3. As I may be typing at the same time as Alan, I have all Fire Precautions in place lest the kinetic energy from his Labtop reaches mine by association.
    Taps running, dressed in full Fire Blanket and will jettison my own Labtop out the window after a CO2 rinse and move to the Munster Zone.

    I am happy with the run of the most beautifully bred yesterday and expect the same today from another although I never thought it would come to a 17.00 at Dundalk.
    The FB to Snowfall finally takes a bow. His Maternal Aunt is Found. The Queen Bee is Red Evie who was as tough as nails and not surprisingly raised by a foster mother. I am not sure if the foster mother was horse, cow or gorilla but either way it was the makings of her.
    It is to Newfoundland I find my nap.
    I think Newfoundland must have set the World Record for the the number of times a 2yo has been withdrawn at the 48 hr. Stage.
    I have watched his every withdrawal from June onwards in every single Irish 2yo Race from 6F up.
    A Deep Impact at Dundalk A.W. on his debut when you are tired of waiting for him. An obvious nap for me.

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  4. Having a stab at a few of Miltons – look well placed In their races and all will like the ground.
    I see Rakib has made one his Nap
    Also.

    2.05 Aliommana 9/4
    3.40 Mi Laddo 11/4 Nap
    4.15 Fire lake 7/4 NB

    Can Paddy Brennan do 10st2? He is trying for Mi Laddo , as I see Mitch is at Fakenham for his rides.
    Might be a few lbs over.

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    1. Yes, nipped in there quick Steelman knowing he’d be popular, sorry! Surprised Fire Lake has drifted a bit – you’d think she’d take the beating after her first showing.

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  5. I’m sure i said a few days ago Miltons were worth betting blind particularly as he doesn’t run about 6 a day..

    Today he runs 10 , 8 in afternoon jumps. The little i know eh. Most have live chances and are obviously running well so I’ll dabble in them i suspect.

    The Nap is Rogue Bear at Nottingham in the 13.40 at 6/4.

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  6. EGS would have a view in this. The Tattersalls Horses in Training Sale this week has shown strong trade, particularly from overseas buyers. But to me the most surprising sale from the Coolmore consignment was TIGER MOTH, a 5yo entire with stallion potential, winner of a Group 3 and one other race from just six starts, most notably his brave half-length second in the 2020 Melbourne Cup in which he started second favourite. How much did it take to secure this 116-rated son of Galileo? Just £20K. Yes, just twenty thousand of your English pounds.

    You’d pay more for a thirteen hands skewbald cob at Appleby Horse Fair. Maybe he’s had a new paint job to hide the rust underneath?

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    1. Harry, the trouble with Tiger Moth is he could never hold down an NH Stallion position not just at Coolmore but anywhere. Particularly as he is a Galileo who have flooded the NH market.
      I am not surprised Stradivarius will stay in training next year as although he will get on a NH roster at about 5 grand a pop he might not get sent more than 50 mares.
      Tiger Moth would have got next to no mares no matter how low the fee and was simply not commercially viable.
      I regret not buying him, gelding him and putting him out to pasture on the little land I own just so I could say I owned a Horse with that record.

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      1. OK then, you could geld him, pop him over some poles then prep him for a punt next summer over hurdles at Cartmel. He could go down in the annals as the best bred horse to win at the Cumbrian track bar none.

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        1. If I bought him I would use all available commercial opportunities.
          Kiddie rides on Blackpool Beach.
          Any stable looking for a Pacemaker that the opposition might respect.
          I never factored in Cartmel but I would be there like a shot even if Tiger Moth treats an obstacle like Luxembourg treats a flat surface.

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  7. The 5.00 Dundalk maiden mentioned by EGS for the debut of Snowball’s own brother Newfoundland will be worth watching, not only for a first look at this well bred but obviously backward colt (no fancy entries for him that I can see), but also the debut of Ger Lyons’s Trent, who is out of a half-sister to Special Duty. Almanera for Joseph O’Brien wasn’t beaten far in John The Baptist’s race at the Curragh. And I’ll be watching closely the debut of Michael O’Callaghan’s I Am Joking. This upwardly mobile young trainer has had five winners recently, four of them in maidens. His horses seem to need a run or two before they are ready to win (as noted by B365, who have marked him up at 16/1 when he is 17/2 with Unibet), but their progress in early races is worth following.

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  8. Trainers will tell you that the worst thing about the job is owners. Yes, they pay the bills but sometimes they need to show a bit of patience. Take the 3yo Libby Ami in Rogue Bear’s race (N 3.40), for instance. The owners are on to their third trainer with this filly who only made her debut in August last year. They have won three races with her but they must think she is better than she is and that David Shaw can wring so more improvement from her. She’s on a career high mark already, and he’s trying the hood today. No pressure, Dave. I wouldn’t pay for a fancy name plate for her box just yet.

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  9. A big drift for Atholl Street this morning (F 2.40), but he has the make and shape of a chaser and this is his ground and trip. Paddy’s Motorbike needs further than this sharp 2m. It’s 6/4 each of two in this three runner field, but Atholl is the one for me.

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  10. After reading about Rakib’s fear of ‘steel horses’ and being the proud owner of a Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R I searched in vain for a Ninja related horse.

    Finding the cupboard bare, I am instead taking the easy way out and based on the warning by EGS yesterday of the upcoming Apocalypse am napping FIRE LAKE in the 16:15 at Taunton, one of the many MH horses out today.

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    1. Fire Lake sounds like a place inhabited by Dragons to be fair…I think there were a few in operation at Sha Tin today (first and last races) but I’ve lost track of them completely!
      PS I don’t think Dragonfruit who won yesterday counts for Dragon Members Club purposes, being more fruit than dragon. A minimum of 50% dragonness is a must.

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    1. I dare, thanks for the heads-up! A few pennies each-way for that 🐉 (looks the right price sadly) and a few pounds e/w on Mabo, 16s looks big .

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