Horsetalk Tuesday November 2nd 2021

A late add on to October’s Hitlist with Rob J napping Cape Gentleman at 10/3. Well done Rob.

A fine start to the new daily naps table with the usual and very welcome suspects in EGS who napped A DISTANT PLACE at 8/15, Alan, KINGS PROCTOR, 5/1, David, PELTWELL 10/3, and Luke H, MARCHING ARMY, 10/3. Great start, gents – well done. And a great start to for a new tipster to the blog, GForce, who napped OH PURPLE REIGN at 8/1. Cracking winner, GForce – nice work.

If I’ve missed anyone, or a late post please leave a comment on the Winners Thread.


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Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

21 comments

  1. On election days the Shinners mantra is to vote early and vote often.
    I have to vote early as I have set my alarm for 03.58 as I enjoy the build-up to the 04.00 (GMT) Melbourne Gold Cup.
    The bets I have done in reality do not qualify for the November competition.
    Verry Elleegant (sic) needs little extra luck to better her 7th position and finish in the first 5 at 18/5 with bet365.
    Sir Lucan I also did at 11/4 for a first 5 finish with the same firm.
    Robicheaux7 concurs and it must be a first for anyone to anticipate my skewed mind.
    However I need to nap either Verry Elleegent or Sir Lucan. I don’t believe the current rules allow an enhanced e.w. to count though that is how everyone does Races like the National.
    Sir Lucan is my nap e.w. at SP.
    A paltry 7 stone 12. I read the lowest weight to win to win this Race in the 1860s was 5 stone 4 Lbs! Can you train a Flea to ride a Thoroughbred Racehorse?
    I am not making it up. 5 stone and 4 pounds in old money.
    He is a FB to Sir Dragonet and is an avenging angel.
    The same people bought him from the same people to win this race.

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    1. Did well to cling to 6th given he was 3 wide.. the winner obviously ‘entered calculations’ but very hard to back a horse that can’t spell its open name …

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      1. The rational part of my brain (small b) said Verry Elleegant.
        I know. Some unused Monty Python sketch with a French Waiter played by Terry Jones that only the owners understand.
        But the reason I am not rich is because I will always berate myself if a Horse with any Ballydoyle connection wins on my watch.
        That decision to not nap Verry Elleegant has scuppered my chances of winning the November Hitlist before the clocks go back.

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        1. Don’t worry, egs, you’ll be admired for your steadfast principles when you go to the great glue factory/comedy club in the sky…should they ennoble your horse after his slightly disappointing effort this morning, Lord instead of Sir Lucan?

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  2. Joe got in there quick With the nap on Hitman. I think he is a top
    Horse and has a nice racing weight.
    He did have a tendency to make a few mistakes last season and his price is skinny for me today.
    I’m interested to see how Eldorado Allen gets on. It’s early season yet but he ran a career best to come 2nd to Shiskin in his last few runs last year. We all know the Tizzards have had a hard few years but they seem to have started well and I think Reserve tank would have had a say in the finish the other day if he stood up. Also Fiddlerontheroof ran well at Carlisle.
    Would be good to see Joe Tizzard take over the reins and have a great season.

    I love some of these mid week
    Jumps cards – some top races and some hard handicaps too unpick.
    I’ve Napped Balkardy on the betfair thread. He was priced up at 12s and I had my dinner and waited for Skybet to price up with the extra places and went back and it was 6s …. Sometimes I don’t learn.
    Bet 365 BOG 7-1 taken instead. Il be backing all my Naps to £10 Win or £5 ew so will be Interesting how skint I am at the end of the month….

    Anyways I think this race has a few interesting horses in it. Balkardy gets a class 5 race over 2 miles after some very tender handling on his first run of season. He is top weight but I think he has a decent chance.
    Remember the Man is a big price for Bryony frost and he ran a prep race over 3 miles which I’d say would be a stretch. He drops back a mile and I’d imagine Bryony will have him leading the way.
    Get supreme for Brian Barr got 40 days for Non trier – be Interesting if this one seen money. Last ride Was a bit cheeky. This one hasn’t went off a single figure price since his Irish PTP days.

    Looking forward to the Sefton at the weekend. Strange it has moved from December but I can see why they have done it ! Some Interesting runners entered so far – Mister Whitaker entered for Donald McCain. Last years winners Hogan heights and some other Aintree regulars!

    Good luck folks – well done the winners yesterday!

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    1. I don’t think the Tizzards got to the bottom of what was wrong last season did they? I do remember Chris Cook (aka the Front Runner…ahem) counselling wisely against backing them to eventually end the losing streak several weekends running…anyway the consequence is they must have had a bunch of well-handicapped beasts and novices and near-novices who could show a lot better this time round. Brendan Powell seems to be doing a pretty good job too piloting. Maybe he’d be the biggest factor if E Allen (not the E Allen but still decent) challenged today otherwise I’d be with the Nicholls horses. With the form Bryony Frost is in she could get a great tune out of Greaneteen despite the welter burden – I fancy him to be even better this season.

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    2. Spot on with our call on the Exeter race, Steelman Let’s hope the Tizzard redemption lasts through the season. Whatever he runs in the old Hennessy will need a close look, though the De Bromhead favourite will be hard to beat.

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  3. As Steelman says its a cracking little card at Exeter. Nichols has first 4 favourites at about evens and all look too short to me so if they come in, im not on. They are viable alternatives in every race – Horses like Ask Me early in the opener and Honest Vic in the 3rd have live chances. Will pick a few and enjoy the sport.

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  4. Last count 9 articles from Aussie in the G ,most focusing on anti racing themes. When Chris Cook was made an offer he had to refuse by Ed Woodward head of sport the latter denied when challenged he was anti racing when the 11 articles on Elliotts cock up by Greg Wood suggested otherwise . I find it really odd that a bloke who gets his pay from writing on racing seems to be very keen at highlighting the negatives whenever they crop up rather than the opposite.

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    1. Dilton,
      Also a negative Racing article on the Breeders’ Cup today in the Guardian by GW.
      Footy supporters would vote with their feet if they want to read a preview about an upcoming match and are just told that a couple of noted Footballers are up for serious criminal charges right now. Thank God they are not Jockeys.

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    2. Sad to see the Racing coverage nosedive so quickly in The Guardian. Much of the content is just agency blurb, or shared direct from the Ozzie edition. Funny how even their blog on the Melbourne Cup carries some very negative images, and the ‘accidentally opened’ comments section was closed down sharpish. I’m not averse to highlighting problems, but I’m with you Dilton, there does seem to be some anti-racing sentiment behind the Guardian’s direction.

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  5. Can’t see anything to inspire me at a price today but I can see PN disappointing a lot of other trainers by winning the first 3 at Exeter. I’ll nap Outlaw Peter 1255 as the others have been picked. Doubles and a treble will be pointing me to the poorhouse.

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