Horsetalk Wednesday November 3rd 2021

Three successful naps yesterday – David had HOWZAK AT 8/13, Jonathan Dawe scored with 4/5 chance SHAMLAAN, and Luke H nailed Martha Brae at 15/8. Well done all. See Naps Table Daily Winners for full results.

If I’ve missed anyone, or a late post please leave a comment on the Winners Thread.

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Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

37 comments

  1. Bazalgette in the ‘MansionBet Beaten By A Head Nursery’ at 14.10 at Nottingham.
    Personally I would have laid out ‘John The Baptist’ for this Race.
    Bazalgette ridded London of sewage. His Great Grandson created Big Brother for Channel 4 (fact) and allegedly brought it back.
    I will do my Micky Channon Wheelie around 14.20 even though I am in a serious meeting.

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  2. I see I’ve ‘overnapped’ with a few others on that 2.30 Chepstow race – obviously quite a competitive chase! Other tips then: Mobadra, 5/2, 4.45 Kempton and Raasel 5/6, 3.10 Nottingham.

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  3. Couple of tempters today, but the choice between novice chasers having their first go and an amateur jockeys race isn’t get the staking wheelbarrow out territory, is it? There’s marginally less chance of the unforeseen upsetting on the flat, so I’ll hope that the awful interference suffered last tine by
    Nap Menin Gate 1610 won’t happen again and be lightening striking twice.
    The other was Red Rookie 1430.
    Should the ew double bear fruit I may chuck it on Mobadra in the 1645

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  4. i think we are finding that the daily nap thread doesn’t really work – probably because its not daily. Not a big issue as I like the conversational tone of the main thread. If you’re looking for sage advice you have to go to two places at the minute.

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  5. Yeh I feel it’s maybe not been clear but everyone is to post their daily Nap in the betfair naps thread?
    This Thread is for discussion etc?
    Feel it’s getting a bit mixed up.

    The Haldon gold cup was a good race and as Joe has noted it looked like Hitman just got out stayed.
    We should have done the RFC Joe!
    Nice to see the Tizzards up and running and I think the chat is a step up in trip for Eldorado Allen. Ryanair the Aim for the season. Interesting as he may bump into Allaho or Envio Allen. Who knows it’s too early to guess.

    I’ve taken an EW nap today in Not available in the 2.30 at Chepstow. Bought from the HDB yard and had its first run in the Uk 2 weeks ago.
    I would imagine he will be a bit fitter now and gets some headgear. Not been out the 3 places in his career to date. This race could be quite warm though and I do fear Ammarillo sky.

    I’ve also taken a few quid EW on Getaway Cory in the 1.00 at 12-1 Skybet offering decent places.
    Ran well behind Norley on its first run of season. Norley was Napped by some on here and won next time. Hopefully this one improves for first run and can get in the mix at a decent price.

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    1. That 14:30 looks tasty doesn’t? Fair case to be made for nearly all of them. I’ve gone for Powerston Park EW, but not with much confidence.

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  6. Have to laugh. It’s Safer Gambling Week, apparently. So far this week I’ve been given 2 free bets from B365 & 1 from Betfair. 😀

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  7. Harry Fry means business today with his bumper debutant WALK ON HIGH at Chepstow (3.35).The Walk In The Park gelding is bred to stay well – the dam was rated in the 140s over hurdles and fences and won at trips up to 3m. Fry has few peers at getting one ready first time and this horse wears a tongue tie for his debut just to make sure. He is 2/1 in places now having opened at around four times the price yesterday. Generally, it looks as if Harry’s patchy form of last year is behind him now, as he has ironed out some of the teething problems at his new yard. Metier was one of the few highlights in a season when the yard lost some talented young horses to injury. Last Quarter carries a winner’s penalty having won a PTP bumper at Punchestown (beating an exciting horse called Pay The Pilot who is now with Kim Bailey) and is a nice horse. The testing ground will suit him. He may just be unable to match the Fry horse with that penalty – his amateur jockey claims seven lbs but has yet to ride a winner under Rules.

    At Musselburgh there is a competitive mares’ bumper at 3.50, despite the small field. Dooyork has the benefit of a recent run and is a nice prospect for Ollie Greenall. She is a full sister to Zero Ten who has been a revelation for Emmert Mullins on the flat and jumping – he was last seen running very well at Longchamp in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak last month. Dooyork won a PTP and has already run well recently at Uttoxeter in a competitive small-field bumper. She was easy to back that day and looked as if she would come on for the run. I can see her doing well when the emphasis is more on stamina and over hurdles. He might just be done for toe on this tight track. HEREWEGOHONEY is Fergal O’Brien’s only runner from four at the 48 hour stage, so they obviously rate her chances enough to make the trip worthwhile. She won a PTP in a good time and travelled well on the testing ground, showing enough speed to suggest she could pick up a bumper. She looks a really good type for his syndicate to go to war with. I would slightly favour her of the two market leaders. However, I wouldn’t discount Ramble West simply because the McCain horses are white hot at the moment, and Don has described this ex-pointer as a grand mare. She was perhaps unlucky to fall when looking dangerous in her third point, having been runner-up twice before that for Colin Bowe. Finally, it will be interesting to watch Phil Kirby’s homebred Lady’s Present. The yard did very well with her dam Lady Chloe who was a 2-mile winner over hurdles and also won on the flat, so she should be well suited to Mussie. She is a big outsider today but Phil will surely find a race for her. It’s an interesting contest.

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    1. Harry, Great read as usual.
      I don’t want to come across all Greg Wood but is a tongue tie first time out appropriate for animal welfare?
      If the beast is making gargling sounds on the gallops maybe it doesn’t have the correct anatomy/physiology to be a Racehorse?
      So What? None of us are perfect.
      As a concerned Racehorse owner of 2 or 3 off hind white hoofs I would not like to hear about a surgical Intervention on a debut performance.

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      1. I know, it’s a concern. You will quite often see a tongue tie being used on a horse post-wind op – it does depend on what procedure has been done, but trainers sometimes refer to it as “holding everything in place”. It is less common on a horse that has never run before, so this one must have made a noise on the gallops. Harry Fry learned at the knee of the greatest evangelist for the breathing operation, Paul Nicholls, who used to cause a lot of comment with the lorryloads of horses he packed off to the veterinary hospitals to get their wind done. Nowadays it’s like getting your hooves painted. I must say Walk On High showed signs today that the op hasn’t worked: he travelled well into the race off a modest pace but then showed very little off the bridle. Whether it is a welfare issue, I’m not sure. It’s definitely inappropriate to gallop a horse that is thick-winded without addressing the problem. It’ll be interesting to see what Harry does next with this horse. It’s certain that a lot more was expected of him today.

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  8. The fact that the first two winners at Chepstow have gone in at 10/1 and 18/1 makes me pretty pessimistic about the chances of the two selections I’ve actually bet at around those prices in later races. It’s probably nonsense, but I just always have this sense that there’s only going to be so many big-price winners on a card, so if the first two are big numbers, the rest of the day is going to be shorties only.

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    1. Results in the next two, both won by the favourites, provide further support for what I am tentatively calling Cornsay’s Theorem. You wait, it’ll catch on.

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      1. Well Cornsay’s Theorem is certainly holding after the 2.30 race. While not favorite Witness Protection was 3rd favorite. However, I believe the term Cornsay’s Hypotheses may be a better name worthy of a Ph. D.

        Unfortunately your nap Powerstown Park has given you 62 points in the Auldchief Cup (November) having met all of EGS’s criteria.

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          1. My nap was Newlands Park in the 13:30, who did equally badly, so I think I might indeed have accrued a lot of points in the only cup worth winning. (must look back for the canonical statement of the criteria).

            Meanwhile the hypothesis (amendment accepted) helds firm through the rest of the card. Perhaps that PhD will be mine one day.

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          2. Jonathan,
            I have recorded Powerstown Park for 62 points as your nap.
            There is no appeal as the Computer says no.
            The trouble with Cornsay’s Theorem is do People shorten the price later on as get of jail cards or do the Bookies get more generous with their odds after early profit to keep us coming back for more?
            I always leave before the last Race as I can’t stand looking at desperate faces.
            The Theorem is definitely sound as things have to even out.

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            1. I intended the theorem as categorical rather than conditional, i.e. “no more than two big winners on a single card”, rather than “if the first two are big the rest are small”. Though obviously the second is entailed by the first.

              That’s a stroke of luck for Jonathan, awarded points for a horse he didn’t actually nap. Good or bad luck, I can’t say either way.

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              1. Cornsay,
                Do you think Newton cared whether his Theorems were categorical or conditional?
                You are stuck with your Theoram.
                I knew it existed but couldn’t find find a name for it.

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              2. I have a similar conundrum. If I fancy one later in the card and its trainer has a winner in an earlier race, does that make me more or less confident about my selection? It could mean that a) it is more likely to win than before (because the trainer is in form), or b) less likely to win because the odds against a yard double are bigger than for a sole winner. As a glass-half-empty kind of guy, I tend to settle on b) every time. Let’s call it Sod’s Law.

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                1. That damn Sod has beaten me to it. But yes, Harry, that does seem an instance of the general phenomenon. More research needed.

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            2. EGS, I think it’s cruel of you to award me points towards The Auldchief Booby Prize when I didn’t even give the horse as a nap, and especially cruel as there is no right of appeal. I expect you to write a Dostoevsky style novel where I am the anti-hero continually being subjected to punishment and being awarded non-existent prizes for competitions I didn’t even enter.

              I suspect you have been sitting in an orchard testing Newton’s Laws of Motion, and too many apples have bounced off your bonce from considerable heights.

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              1. Jonathan,
                I am a humble Arbiter.
                You judged Cornsay mistakenly and you earned your 62 points.
                By appealing under a false premise I have doubled your points to 124.
                At what point in your life did you not realise Kafka was not writing fiction

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    1. Well napped, Simon. He looks on a nice mark doesn’t he. I should add a second congrats for your Steph e.w. double project at Gosforth Park last night, 12/1 and 14/1. Shelling peas comes to mind.

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      1. Thanks for the kind words H!! He won well didn’t he. The Stoute horse was visually exciting wasn’t he, looked quite green early in the straight and then more impressive the further he went.

        As for the Hollinshead horses, the bulk of the money was wasted on win singles but at least expenses were just about covered with the place double.

        All the best.

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  9. Sir Michael Stoute had a cracking colt win on debut at Notts just now. Desert Crown defied a big market drift to win impressively, seemingly relishing the soft ground like many of Nathaniel’s progeny. Although his dam Desert Berry was a miler, there’s plenty of stamina on the sire’s side so he should get 10-12f. There could be interesting times ahead for him. Ryan will be ruing missing this one.

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  10. On naps, my tracker threw up two that looked nailed on today Representing Joe and Raseel. The former was 2 to 1 last night so looked a better nap.as Raseel was about 8/11

    Come raceday Rep Joe comes in to 8/11 and loses 9 never going well enough to win for me) – Raseel drifts to about evens and wins. Sighs.

    Be watching your bumper tips with interest Harry!

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    1. I was sure Raasel would go off shorter too -as it was the result was quite close, possibly not liking the soft ground so much but still cosily ahead. One to watch next season.

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    2. Hope you watched for fun only, David. They were both pretty informative races even though results didn’t go as I’d hoped. I think Lorcan Murtagh overdid the waiting game at Chepstow on Walk On High having travelled sweetly through the race. If he had been more decisive and asked him to put the race to bed it might have given Hullnback too much to do to come from way off the pace. The winner was very green and pulled hard early on but Paddy Brennan has beautiful hands and settled him really nicely without fighting him too much. He looked like an aeroplane there in the last half furlong but Paddy found some better ground up the stands side which helped. Nice performance. At Mussie the bumper was won by the McCain horse – he was quite right to be sweet on her. The race was blown apart by the tearaway tactics of Lady’s Present, and it wasn’t surprising that the mare with the most experience was the only one to be unfazed by it. You could say the same about the jockey too as Brian Hughes is probably the least ruffled guy in the weighing room these days and knew exactly when to make a move to reel in the leader. Herewegohoney ran well enough and looks OK, while Dooyork was never at the races and needs to go over eight flights of hurdles now. It was like the first day at big school for those two.

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