Horsetalk Thursday November 4th 2021

Some fair comments on the main thread yesterday about confusion of threads in the posting of naps. Let’s go back to having the naps on the main thread. I will remove the Post Your Daily Naps thread.

Just make clear it is your nap, and please, also, when reporting its success on the Winners Thread, mention the SP; it helps reduce my work.

Two tipsters got on the naps board yesterday: Luke H followed up his Tuesday winner with another one – Mobadra at 11/4. You’ve made a nice start, Luke. And Mickle landed a place for his EW selection returned at 5/1 – Wrenthorpe. Mickle mentions that Wrenthorpe was 9/1 this morning, and I realise it’s frustrating not tipping them at a price, but it applies to everyone and the swings and roundabouts will level things out in time.

I suspect from reading the main thread that not all winning naps for Wednesday have yet been posted, so I’ll update this thread when they have.

If I’ve missed anyone, or a late post please leave a comment on the Winners Thread.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


About This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

29 comments

  1. Thursday Nap – Chef D’Equipe 3.05 Newbury

    This one looks overpriced at the current 16s with Bet365 (though the nap will be at SP). Although he hasn’t won here, two of his top 3 Racing Post Ratings are at Newbury (2nd both times, one of them in this race in 2019). He had a wind op in June. There’s a chance the Hobbs yard is just losing the edge on its excellent start to the season – only 2 places from its last 10 runners, but I’m hoping there’s just enough sharpness in it to get Chef D’Equipe home.

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  2. Absolutely spot on about the swings and roundabouts of the price Joe. Wasn’t complaining as such just trying to explain why I’d gone EW. Will go for Obey The rules in the Ludlow 1.05.

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  3. First rule of placing money on horses. You bet when you consider it right to do so and based on your thorough analysis of a race. The whole concept of a daily ‘punt’ is what the betting industry relies on.

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    1. A difficult concept.
      My Son loves Hurling and detests Gaelic Football. It turns out he has flair for the latter and is wasting everyone’s time in the former. He finds this depressing.
      I know I will make some money once the Ballydoyle Horses have been put to bed by December as I can weirdly predict Winners when I am totally dispassionate.
      The trouble is it will bring no joy.
      I got in to this game on the back of The Minstrel and Alleged and Tipp Allegiances on my Maternal side.
      My son prefers to be crap at Hurling than talented at Bog ball.
      I know I will no longer need to fret much after next Breeders Cup weekend aside from HK and Japan but fretting about Mother Earth in the Mile, Love in Filliy and Mares Turf and the Holy Trinity of Broome, Japan and Bolshoi Ballet in the Turf is part of what keeps me going.

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      1. I can watch both hurling and bog ball. I’ve attended an Aussie Rules game in Melbourne with almost 100,000 others – both bizarre and enjoyable.

        The one I am looking forward to this season is the Dublin Festival of Racing.

        Dispassionate and joy are key words from your comment. I can understand, although it’s not for me, the daily low stakes punt for interest and something to do, providing it remains low stakes, and one can afford both loss and win. But then again, it’s still worthwhile to follow a race, without a bet, with one or two tracker horses who you don’t fancy against the favourite, distance or ground and see them come in placed or running a decent race. The joy is in your analysis being borne out.

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      2. Are you watching p twomey in del mar might be icing on the cake.
        I use be mad my nephew never played games . But they had no sport clubs where he lived in isolated rural place.
        A young guy i know always wanted a CANOE we thought he was mad..

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            1. And don’t discount MO FORZA. I have backed SPACE BLUES again and I may cover this with MO. However, if Twomey’s horse wins I will raise both a smile and a glass.

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  4. The 2.30 did end up being an interesting race after all and one il keep an eye on.
    My selection finished Not Available Nabbed 3rd at 16-1 and probably wants a longer trip. I thought the chase experience he had would pay off and it did in the end.
    Red rookie looks a nice horse and could be a bit of a machine on softer ground.
    The Evan Williams horses for the Ruckers were not off to my eye today and no doubt will have a target set.

    Onto my Nap for Thursday.
    Il likely regret taking a Nap in a Pertemps qualifier but I like the Look of STONEY MOUNTAIN EW.
    Has run fresh before for Henry Daly and after a failed season last year I hope he can come back with a bang for the Jamie snowdon yard. They have been in decent form recently.

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  5. I am going straight in with the Beginners Chase at Thurles at 12.10 for my nap as I want to be done and dusted by Lunch Time.
    Are all Horses at Thurles not Beginners? There is a 10 yo in that Race and will he ever acquire the knowledge to graduate to a Finishers Race?
    WJ Austin won this last year with The Chapel Field at 7/1.
    I know most of you were on that.
    I also know most of you were on the WJ Austin trained Crack on Corrie to be placed at Sligo on 22nd October at 16/1 and to win at Fairyhouse at 11/1 on 2nd of November.
    She will be a cracking foundation Broodmare.
    Unfortunately the great man is not represented in this Race today and I have to channel a Sage on this Forum who suggests JP Ryan may be going under the Radar.
    Double Jubilee e.w. is my nap.

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  6. I’d like to nap Elle est Belle but the price is way too short for a tipping comp so I will go with
    Nap Cup of Coffee 1230 Ludlow
    This is a race with great potential as C of C has jockey RT and Bryony is on the odds on fav. The post race ‘well done’ respect handshake or Fallon and Webster revisited? A simple ‘is that lead in your pocket or are you just pleased to see me?’ could help things along..

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    1. GForce, I’m glad I am not the only one that views a maiden hurdle at Ludlow to be the obvious starting point for a nap bet!!

      I can’t help but think that if the favourite was much cop, she wouldn’t be off to Ludlow either, so I’m very keen on Jaunty Freya. Ran well over the course behind one of Henderson’s last year and 12s will do for me.

      I think Eckley is an under rated trainer so prices can be favourable, equally John Groucott who has one in the next that wasn’t overly challenged in its last race and could make up a nice double to start the day.

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      1. Sure you are right in your observations. In a world of fine margins I’ve noticed a few mutterings about PN’s horses then Froden stars and Silver Forever has just stuffed Imperial Alcazar so perhaps it is maybe a case of giving the juveniles ‘nice introductions’. I thought a couple of those who ran at Exeter could be stable stars and had big reputations but they didn’t deliver. I’m not counting Cyrname as I reckon his head isn’t right for now.

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  7. NAP Manaafith 3.55 Chelmsford
    Hoping Stoute’s horse will not be pushed too hard first time out, but it’s a Novice race so anything could happen.
    Despite some nice picks on here, still down this week, as my Melbourne Cup selections (all over 20-1) could finish no better than 8th 😛

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  8. Before the kids in America start running in the juvenile races at Del Mar tomorrow I am selecting SMARTY WILD in the 15:05 at Newbury as my nap.

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  9. Dublin Four: is that a postal district in the Irish capital, a sixties showband, or people who suffered a miscarriage of justice? Or maybe the only horse that can stop Valleres winning the 3.05 at Newbury?

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