Horsetalk Sunday November 7th 2021

Still time for Saturday naps to come in. What we have from the day’s racing so far is the 2nd winning nap in three days for Mickle with 4/1 shot Kings Lynn. Nice work, Mickle.

Also, on catchup from Friday, Go Bets Go finished 2nd at 12/1 at Del Mar having been napped EW by Robicheaux7. Well done.

A further update on Sunday to this.

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.


Betfair Naps Table

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

45 comments

    1. Not a bad run at all from yours Joe. I had half an eye on it but seen it drift out to 14s. Saddle slipped and I’d say he should be winning at somepoint.
      McCain yard in good form and his looked too good today. A great run of wins from Minella drama. 6 wins is a dream for any owner.

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  1. Anyone who did an e.w. double on Broome and Japan in the 23.40 at Del Mar yesterday must feel sick as a dog. 2nd and 4th is not the same as 2nd and 3rd with a weirdo Bookie. I pity anyone who did that bet. Anyway, crack on. Tomorrow is another day as Vivien Leigh might have said.
    At least I am on course for the Betfair Chase at Haydock with all expenses included after my Broome nap. I have done the flights already. Robicheaux7 might be my only trouble for the November Hitlist.
    I need an edge.
    I have to do a horrid thing. Chantry House has done me my nothing but good and I have a non creepy thing about his Dad but in a 2 runner field where he has no reason to be fit and this is Sandown after all my nap is The Big Breakaway whose SP should be around 2/1.

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  2. Nap today is farrawaybay (14:20). Special mention to Len Brennan 15:05 ffos las, named after TVs greatest bishop. Just don’t call him Len you little b*****ks!

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  3. I didn’t put it up here, was painful though watching Broome getting reeled in. Getting on ew at 33s was some compensation.
    Nap today. Chemical Energy, Navan 12.40 7/2.

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      1. Under the pre-existing Rules He would not qualify as 2 Horses were PU but I appreciate that this is an organic process and I think any Horse should not be considered as in last place if they go wrong. It is best to reward a Horse who plods in to last place without being pulled up like your moment of madness nap.
        The Rules still state that the last Horse on the flat should get a basic 50 points and an NH Horse a basic 30 points as they tend to fall over more readily without any error on the Tipsters part and I am keeping to that (?Bumpers 50 points).
        However PU Horses no longer count and therefore you are awarded 34 points as 4 Horses finished ahead of you.
        You are well behind on Jonathan who is on 124 points even though he didn’t napped a Loser this month but accused someone else mistakenly and then showed sheer insolence by appealing which doubled his points.
        My nap today finished an impressive 37L behind Chantry House in the 14.10 at Sandown but no points as there needs to be 5 Starters.

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  4. Today’s Nap is Gwencily Barbas in the 3.00
    Pipe horses have been running well without winning and I think he can get on the board. Now runs in Veterans chases which can be Favorable for the 10yos. I fear Wandrin star most who has had a wind op and like to run fresh (saver)

    Also a bet from the left field ….
    I Have an extended family member who part owns a 2yo in Madrid called Nepomuk.
    She runs in the 10.45 In Madrid. She is up against Bribon who is a short priced fav and I’m told will be hard to beat.
    My family member has backed Nepomuk who is 7-1 (more in hope than confidence) and has backed the RFC (2-4) pays 5-1 and 11-1

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    1. Following chat the other day about whether an early winner answering to the same logic as a tip for later occasions optimism or pessimism: do you see a Piper going in at 9/1 (13:55 Ffos) to be a positive sign or bad omen for your tip? (Hope it turns out to be the former)

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      1. In my head I hope it’s a good omen, I’d have liked if it was for the same
        Jockey. I’d imagine a jockey will take confidence from winning rides.
        I don’t think too much into it though – each race is so different and each horse may have a different constitution.
        I do definitely keep an eye on yard form though. I don’t know the exact science to it but we have seen the Tizzards, Ben Pauling, Twiston Davies yards in previous season have a hard time. In those instances I’d never go near the yard and would actively back against their horses that are short in the market.

        Pipes had a decent 40-1 shot place in the sefton the other day and most have been running to form.

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        1. That makes complete sense and seems like the “right” answer: a winner for a given yard is a small indicator that things are well for today’s runners for that yard, which should bolster confidence in later runners. But in some heads at least it has the opposite effect: they’ve had one so far today, so that’s one off their quota for the day . . . As you say, probably best not to read too much into it.

          Absolutely agree about yard form. All sorts of things we don’t know about—viruses, when they have their shots, etc etc etc—that can manifest in a yard having a stinking run.

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          1. Well I was half right. Horse ran really well but ran out of steam over the last. Saver came in which makes it stake back at least

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  5. Nap: Hudson de Grugy 245 Sandown.
    NB: 3.25 Navan Ballyadam should win on talent but he’s odds on so the dick solid Buddy Rich at 7/2 is more appealing.

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  6. My nap yesterday was nowhere to be seen; the nb won at 16/1. Will never challenge EGS for the grand prize with that kind of behaviour.

    I’ll have Seaston Spirit in the 15:40 at Ffos Las as the nap. Last of eight in the betting, but come on: won the very same race a year ago coming back from much the same length of break, and the jockey’s claim pretty much cancels out the increased weight. That’s got to be worth a nibble, hasn’t it.

    Mouseinthehouse in the 15:05 as an NB.

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  7. I don’t know whether this has trickled through to England, but Irish point to pointing is facing what could become an existential crisis if it develops much further.

    On a day when some graduates of the PTP field have lit up jump racing in Ireland and the UK – Ginto and Notebook at Navan; Chantry House at Sandown; Powerful Position at Ffos Las – the future of the sport between the flags is under threat by anti-hunting/farming activists. It’s quite a complex picture but the simple fact is that this lobby has been putting insurance companies under intense pressure (via social media attacks and through direct messaging to company executives) with scare stories of the risk attached to equine sports in general and pointing in particular. Previously meetings would receive insurance cover as part of a package organised for all outdoor activities in a particular area (a parish for instance – this could mean children’s pony racing, gymkhanas, sponsored horse rides etc). The premiums would therefore be shred between the local hunt club that hosts a PTP meting and the organisers of the other events. Now however, and due to this pressure from a fanatical anti-field sports faction, insurance companies have taken fright and required hunts to but separate insurance – ramping up the premiums while they are at it. Many hunt clubs cannot bear this cost as attendance is down this season, and the financial losses sustained through the long Covid lockdowns in Ireland have been crushing for the entire PTP scene (in contrast to racing under Rules, which managed to get back going with crowd attendance because they had the ear of the government. Last season was a wash-out, which meant that PTP trainers had a lot of stock they could not put in the shop window. Many resorted to hit and hope by running their nice 4yos in bumpers out of desperation, a good way to spoil a horse’s reputation if it finishes down the field in a 20 runner field on spring ground. The whole model is built upon the system of 4yo and 5yo maidens and the adjacent auctions. That is how the top horses achieve the big prices. All of this is now under threat – and the knock-on effects of a broken PTP calendar can only be damaging for jobs in the yards, the feed and bedding suppliers as well as the nursery for keen young riders to learn their trade.

    I think we should keep a close eye on this situation – the people who scream the house down every Grand National weekend are lying in wait to undermine horse racing as a whole and pointing – with its hunting connection making it especially vulnerable – is already in the cross-hairs. To me, jump racing without Irish pointers is inconceivable. Can you imagine a world where only ex-French imports and English horses bought off the Flat are competing in our winter sport?

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    1. I should clarify that the vast majority of Irish PTP meetings are held on farmland, with the remainder on NH courses. Pointing is rooted in the rural life of Ireland, so it is not half as interesting watching these events on professional circuits. To take them away from their traditional venues would be to drain the cashflow that benefits local communities throughout Ireland. The two fixtures cancelled this weekend were to be held on farm courses.

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    1. That’s all pretty worrying, Harry. I had no idea. Do you think it’s a sort of strategic campaign to undermine racing as a whole by targetting the foundations, or do you think that would be to credit the pressure groups with too much strategic vision? And what, practically, can any of us do about it? (a genuine question! I’m sure there must be something, but what I can’t think)

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      1. It’s almost certainly a tiny group of committed activists who are committed and organised and whose world view makes sense to themselves but no one outside their bubble. They are quite capable of creating havoc with minimal resources and evading legal sanctions – like the insulation people in England and their tubes of glue. But these people don’t go out in the wind and rain like roads protestors or hunt sabs. They do their damage from their own keyboards at home without about as much danger to themselves as if they were leaving someone a stinking review on Tripadvisor.

        As to remedies, we have top put the cost of this into context. I gather that insurance for a weekend point meeting is of the order of 15 to 17K. The calendar provides for some 100 meetings on farmland courses, so the overall insurance cost amounts to between 1.5 and 2 million. A trifling sum for the Irish Dept of Agriculture to pick up if you balance it against the economic and social benefits of supporting pointing in this way. The Irish Turf Club is under pressure to face down the wreckers. Hopefully with government support they will do so – and that will entail ministerial reassurance to the insurance companies that the sport is not suddenly riskier and more dangerous than it was before the pandemic. The government certainly owes them one after the lamentable neglect they showed last season.

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    2. Agreed.
      I live in Cork City but work in the Northern rural part of the County.
      Just like the Hospitality Sector there were Ol’ Lads hanging on hoping the Grandkids might show an interest but this Lockdown and all these recovery costs has put many out to pasture with no succession plan.
      Kids used to drop out of University and go back to the Family Farm or run a Pub but I can’t remember the last time I talked to someone who did that.

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      1. Down this way in north tipperary i see the hunt beating out the road on some sundays as i go to bookies.
        All ages groups of humans and horses ponys etc
        No one objects or even notices except me and traffic.

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  8. I’ve unpublished the adversarial comments on this thread. It’s a shame I have to because readers are losing good content too from two knowledgeable people – Rakib and Harrytheactor. Your mutual dislike displayed here publicly is no longer something for me to comment on or try to adjudicate. The only thing I have asked for in return for keeping this blog going is for users to be kind. If you choose not to be, you’ll be blocked for good.

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