Horsetalk Monday November 8th 2021

I was impressed by Chantry House today, especially his very professional and mature round of jumping. He already has two Grade 1s to his name and a 3rd to Shishkin in another, The Supreme, which would have been an insufficient test for him. That was one of only two defeats in his whole career, and he us still unexposed given jus 2 runs now at staying trips. Henderson, as always, will manage him through to the Gold Cup where I think he’ll be close to favourite. I strongly recommend taking the 12/1 with Paddy Power if you are happy with the risks in ante post betting – the key one, of course, is losing your money if he doesn’t run.

A few good hits on the naps table today with Rakib making his first November appearance naming Hudson De Grugy, an 11/4 winner as his nap. Rakib also drummed in his advantage with 5/1 NB Buddy Rich. Well done, Rakib.

David’s on the November board for the 3rd time with Desque De L’isle at 5/2. Nice work, David. And RobJ had a cracking nap with Farrawaybay at 13/2 – great stuff, Rob.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

31 comments

  1. Has Chantry House ever done anyone a bad turn?
    I opposed him yesterday and against Shishkin and that’s about it.
    I have read that he is a bit slow and does clangers but can not find this on his C.V.
    My nap is in the 15.45 at Newcastle where Toromona must shorten from 5/2 for a Stable on fire.

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  2. A couple of questions to get some debate going.

    What was the stand out performance by a horse at the Breeders Cup?

    Is CHANTRY HOUSE a Gold Cup contender?

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    1. Loves Only You winning the fillies race was a brilliant achievement but to me ,knowing what a complete tricky nasty bugger YIBIR is ,even after being cut topped that . The way he picked up when got hold of was something I never thought he was capable of earlier in his career as a colt who turned his head when asked and chucked it in. Hes a bit ground dependent as the only time hes been done since being cut was on softish ground but hes got real gears .

      Chantry House . Look at what hes beaten to date ,nothing top notch .Hes a 141 horse so far ,that’s approx 25 lengths inferior to what the normal Gold Cup winner has to run to.
      To give you some idea the vastly over rated Shan Blue who he beat is a 128 animal.The Big Breakaway who he beat in a 2 horse affair has only ran to 126 on the clock. Waxing lyrical about that is premature.
      Let’s see what he does when upped to a stiff 3m 2f before any judgements can be made against better class animals because the one time he met that type ,his stablemate Shishkin he was put firmly in his place ,irrespective of trip.
      Hes then got to find hell of a lot when upped to the GC trip ,the best part of 25 lengths .That’s not easy.

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      1. YIBIR was very impressive. I also thought GOLDEN PAL looked to be the fastest thing I have seen recently over 4.5 furlongs. Don’t know what happened at York. Wesley Ward is talking up it’s chances at Royal Ascot, but there has to be a question mark regarding travelling after York.

        CHANTRY HOUSE jumped for fun yesterday in what can be described as a racecourse gallop. I have some doubts also and 6/1 for the King George looks skinny and the Irish will win the Gold Cup.

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        1. I can’t comment much on the Breeders cup. I didn’t watch it all, but I have watched some of the races. I agree Golden pal is a rocket. I do get what you say regards him traveling – he wants the ground like concrete also which isn’t the case here. Would be interesting seeing him at Goodwood over the 5F. Would he be faster than Baatash record?
          Yibirs burst from the back was also something special. You see a lot of races where the ones who break fast and get a good position win the race but he really had to work in the last furlong.
          I’m not one for the dirt and I don’t know much about it but Knicks Go did the classic easy. He just looked to glide over the surface and wasn’t even off the bridle at all. Must be some horse.

          Chantry house could be a contender. When you look at the AP betting It only takes one or two of the Irish to come out and he is 5-1 shot. I can see the logic behind backing him now for some people. He must be the main JP hope this year?
          Unless Champ miraculously comes good and is able to jump.

          Will Envio Allen go Gold cup or Ryanair? The owners have As Plus Tard who must be a major runner in the GC with another year under his belt. He was my main bet last year and I thought he did well to finish 2nd after a few mistakes.
          Owners also have Allaho who obliterated the opposition in the Ryanair? Does he stay that trip this year or does he step up?

          Minella indo is going to the King George but is he fast enough ? His jumping at times last year was slow and he made many mistakes. I think he evidently loves Cheltenham and stays the GC trip well though.

          I’d love to see Allaho in the king George – he would belt out from the front and it would be catch me if you can. Not sure whether he would stay the 3m but he might at Kempton.
          Who knows what Willies plans are though. Most of his probably aren’t even getting warmed up yet.

          Anyways I’ve not touched an AP bet yet for cheltenham and I don’t think I will for a while yet. Too many imponderables ….

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      2. I think Charlie Appleby’s achievement was the most impressive thing about the Breeders’ Cup – that’s some strike rate he’s got, and I didn’t think Yibir could get to the front from where he was. Betfair wouldn’t include Golden Pal in my combo when I tried to place it (suspended I think) so the win was bittersweet for me!
        Al Boum Photo is going to be given a different prep for this year’s Gold Cup, according to Willie Mullins – I’m not backing either yet, as ABP is getting on a bit – but at this stage I’d rather take 16-1 on him, than 12-1 on Chantry House.

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    2. Trying not to allow winning or losing bets to effect my judgement, but Modern Games (brilliantly held by WB when the gate was opened by the gate handler and still able to win even though my bet was cancelled), Golden Pal (acceleration out of the gate), Space Blues (best horse but you still have to perform), Yibir (who I backed at Belmont, but thought the straight would be too short to get there), Go Knicks Go (dominated from the start and most importantly beat BB’s horse).

      However, for riding performances I suggest watching the full race jockey cam on Jose Ortiz riding Piazza Bianca

      On a less impressive note I noticed on Twitter that Gordon Elliot was tweeting away at successful connections at Navan, but failed to commiserate with connections of Wide Receiver, fatally injured in Buddy Rich’s race. I’m not expecting a tear stained face sobbing away, but more and more trainers are acknowledging the downside of horse racing, especially acknowledging the stable staff devastated by the loss of a horse.

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      1. Pizzaaa Biancaaa!! My heart was in my mouth the whole way. I think that’s the most thrilling jockey cam footage I’ve ever seen. Thanks JD.

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    3. Such difficulties.
      I think Tarnawa should stay in training as her best is yet to come.
      Chantry House is what is he is and what is my right to complain? Not sure he is GC.

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  3. Inn the Bull 4.00 Kempton

    Take a bit of a Risky bet. Claimer takes off 10lb but has won a few races. The Horse is fresh and had a wind op and the ground will suit. Race isn’t the strongest.

    DN il get back to your discussion point in a bit. About to drive.
    I can see Joe definitely thinks chantry house is one for the GC though!

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  4. Nap Pastel Power 1.10 Wol. A few interesting newbies to feasibly oppose the odds-on fav with. Plumping for this from King Power, SDS still the retained rider on board.
    To answer DN’s question I’d have to go with Modern Games on day 1. Doing what he did after all the start shenanigans was mightily impressive. Interesting to see how he goes next year.

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  5. Would have liked to have gone for Doddie the Great but the odds are ‘ungenerous’. Still I hope he hoses up for all the associate reasons. So it’ll have to be
    Nap Carlisle 1410 Minella Drama
    I’ve got to disagree with Dilton – is that allowed?- regarding Shan Blue. He’s still only 7 and a rising star. OK Cyrname seems crazy but he was still beating Fusil Raffles and the rest by a country mile in the Charlie Hall which could be a sign that the Marsh form can be overturned. For sure he’ll be getting plenty of jumping schooling at the Skeltons and where better to get it?

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    1. Yep ,you are welcome to disagree but the horse is a wobbler and the clock doesn’t lie ,hes had his head knocked of to run his best ,and his best is nothing special .
      Hes badly jarred up now as well and has been let down ,until the spring .

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    2. Shan Blue’s main drawback is his jockey, who has way too many blood-rushes to the brain. He went a mad pace on him at Cheltenham down the back giving the horse no chance of seeing it out. He did pretty much the same at Wetherby last time, tracking a horse who had carted his jockey, seeing the distress signals on Cyrname and, rather than sit quietly (the rest were off the bridle) he crouches and drives the horse like a madman. That was a tired fall Shan Blue took, and I’m not surprised he needs a long rest. Had he not fallen he might have been ruined altogether by Harry, who seems a very nice guy, but, minus the Skelton ammunition, wouldn’t be anywhere close to champion jockey.

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  6. Anyone see Tony Calvin’s tweet of Cottesmore ( my local hunt ) rider kicking and slapping horse ? Just after GE is slowly receding we get this and , yes , racing will suffer by association .

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  7. I loved the BC this year: there was some fantastic racing. Go Bears Go wasn’t the most talented horse at the Breeders Cup but my goodness he ran a wonderfully race in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on Friday. They broke at a blistering pace, especially Twilight Gleaming in typical Wesley Ward fashion, and he won the race in the first furlong as so often in these races on tight ovals. John Velazquez had to make lots of use of Bears down the back but he railed brilliantly into the stretch and then got him to pick up again and ran on through the line. The race caller, who doesn’t normally miss a trick, never mentioned GBG until after he crossed the line in second place. A terrific result for David Loughnane (as it was with Hello You in the Juvenile Fillies).

    Apart from the 2yo I particularly enjoyed the Classic, not normally my favourite race but this year I did go through the form and listened to what the trainers were saying leading up to the race. Chad Brown in particular is a fascinating man – a bit less Gee Whiz than some of the other Americans. He is never less than frank and open in discussing his horses, and was so interesting when comparing and contrasting his two stars Knicks Go and Essential Quality. They are both great champions but entirely different in temperament and running style. They only thing they have in common is that they’re both grey? He is an object lesson in communication skills that many trainers on this side of the water would do well to study. (I exclude Charlie Appleby from that – he was very helpful and deservedly carried off the trainer’s honours after his stellar season.)

    Finally, well done to Matt Chapman for some excellent interviews around the barns in the days before the race. He was his true knowledgeable self away from the pigeon hole they have him in at ITV Racing.

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  8. Quick postscript: Life Is Good was probably the easiest winner of the weekend. I have rarely seen a miler motoring at that high cruising speed for all eight furlongs, a phenomenal demonstration of controlled power.. His sectionals were extraordinary – he ran five of the eight in under 12sec per furlong, which is blistering pace for a 5f sprinter never mind a miler. He was different class to the rest of them – Irad Ortiz looked like he was riding a 750cc motorbike. Ginobili also returned fast fractions but was still beaten a long-looking 6 lengths. He couldn’t live with the winner’s pace over the first half mile. Some animal – Baffert’s loss was very much Pletcher’s gain.

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