Horsetalk Tuesday November 9th 2021

It’s good to see Bacciodilupo on the November winning nap list with Mega Marvel at 11/2. Many more to follow this month, I hope, Baci.

The blog has joined the fray too courtesy of 4/1 winner Calva D’Auge.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

49 comments

    1. Excellent advice too! I think Cabot Cliffs is dangerous though, perhaps needed the run last time and was giving a lot of weight away. Good luck, should be a decent race.

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    1. EGS mentioned last week that he had a non creepy thing for the sire of Chantry House,

      Alan’s tip above is also sired by EGS’s crush. It’s also trained by the current punter’s pal MH.

      What can go wrong?
      ,

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  1. A chance is taken on Evan Williams entries at Hereford.
    Marbel moon runs in the 1.22 which is a 3m1F chase. Drops into a class 5 and Isobel Williams takes off 5lb.
    It’s a weak race and the horse is handicapped to win. (nap)

    He also runs Peterborough in the 3.25 a 2 mile hurdle. This one has also dropped down the handicap and Isobel rides again and claims 5lb. Again looks like a winnable Opportunity. (NB)

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    1. More to say what has went wrong with the last few seasons.
      Several reasons last year came up regards virus/health. This year not so much.
      I think it’s looking like a changing of the Guard with Charlie Appleby leading the Godolphin operations charge to the top of the owners ranks. The guardian had an article on this the other day. The sons of Frankel and Dubawi bred horses have taken the year by storm.
      Frankel looks he has the crown for tip Sire. I see his fee is 200K now.

      Coolmores Galileo Sons – Camelot/Australia don’t seem to be creating the top top level horses. With Galileo now gone and only a few of his to hit the track it will be very interesting to see how the next 5 years pans out.
      Do They need Wooten basset and SMB to take the mantle?
      They do have a lot of top level Mares to breed from which will have a Galileo bloodline.
      Recently I just don’t think they have had those really top level horses or the globe trotters like Highland reel or magical. Which Is a shame as I loved watching that kind of horse win across the world.

      Are these things cyclical though?

      Only a few years back AOB won something like 28G1s and godolphin struggled. Strategies change and the Breeders are running huge businesses with Risk vs reward.

      Also Look at John Gosden this year. He has not had anywhere near the top ammo he had previously.
      Andrew balding on the other hand now seems to be pretty much a sure fire bet at being up there in the top ranks.

      Again I do not know the ins and outs of breeding/training etc so my view is possibly misinformed. Would be interning to hear some others views.

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    2. I thought it was a fairly lazy piece by Greg Wood – better to be positive about Charlie Appleby (Sliding Doors mention stupid) and reasons for his rise, OR take a proper look at why Ballydoyle have slumped (also unrealistic to expect St. Mark’s Basilica to fill Galileo’s shoes) – also citing rumours, like a jockey, that didn’t happen, didn’t really help.

      Coolmore (the paymasters) have been looking for a replacement for Galileo for a while, and they don’t happen overnight. Caravaggio (by Scat Daddy) tops the list I’m looking at for first season sires in Europe. Churchill is 6th, the next Galileo is down in 12th. AoB has talked up horses like Australia for a while – Broome and Order of Australia are good, but not world beaters. Gleneagles (and others) is decent, but not likely to be the next super sire – and I doubt St. M B is either. I’m no expert on breeding but they’ve had some great mares recently, so maybe they can find the next superstar that way…
      Of the top sires in Europe – Frankel leads the way by a distance (the only one by Galileo in top 12), he has a similar win percentage to Sea the Stars (no. 2, but less runners) and Dubawi (no.3 – more winners, but Frankels have earnt 50% more). Galileo himself is No. 4, but with significantly fewer winners, so you could say his star status was already on the wane… Worth noting though, that Frankel may be getting an advantage with the quality of mares that are sent to him – though I have no stats to back this up.
      I think AoB’s previous season was below par, and every season we seem to get ‘this is the best I’ve ever trained’, but this year there was major disappointment with Battleground and Bolshoi Ballet, and others. I’m not sure his training is to blame, maybe they were just over-hyped. I expect he’ll keep plugging away, trying to fill the gap left by Galileo, until they decide Joseph is the change they need to make (this would happen much sooner if they were owners of football clubs – do Coolmore own any clubs?!).

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      1. Note – I was writing this before Steelman’s post was published, so not in response, and some similar points made.
        I agree that there is a cyclical nature to the up and downs of trainers’ fortunes. As far as Goldophin goes – I suspect that they have benefited from a broader breeding programme recently, though again, have not looked at any stats.

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        1. Good reads from The Steelman and Luke. I’ve too much respect for AOB to suggest he is on the wane, but I do agree that Godolphin and Appleby are the coming force. It’s also interesting that Joseph and Donnacha set up separate stables to their father, as opposed to taking the Thady and Daddy route.

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          1. APOB has to work within his Appraisal meeting and Performance Indicators.
            It is not about developing Horses that we care about even I think that is his inclination.
            The fact that Ballydoyle have been utter crap for longer than I can remember is pretty irrelevant to his Bosses.
            Appraial in 2018. Get a Deep Impact on the Stallion Roster. Saxon Warrior. Tick. Also a No Nay Never. Ten Sovereigns. Tick.
            2019. Get a Stallion on the roster by Invincible Spirit. Magna Grecia. Tick.
            2020. Get an American Pharaoh. No tick.
            2021. Get a Stallion by Siyouni. SMB. Tick (although they had covered that with Sottsass anyway).
            I know what the updated Coolmore Stallion fees are as they are hot off my desk.
            You might be surprised to learn that since the death of Galileo, Wooton Bassett commands the highest fee at 150 Grand and 2022 is a year for APOB to work alongside that Stallion.
            No Nay Never comes second on 125 and will remain a prolific Sire of 2yos and not really a concern anymore for APOB.
            The surprisingly good news is that the fee of Camelot has rocketed to 75 grand which is more than “the best ever” SMB on a meagre 65 grand.
            This fee is on the back of Luxembourg.
            The fee of Australia also went up 8 grand to 35.
            The fees of Camelot and Australia are very reassuring to me as I like to see Horses being competitive at 3 or 4, ideally beyond a mile.
            I am hoping that the Mares that were sent to Galileo now go to those two Stallions whose Foals might win the Derby or Arc and not the Commonwealth Cup.

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        1. Tabor was involved also. There’s a great story of the pair of them watching the 1999 Champions League Final in Monaco. The end of the game neared and Tabor went for a smoke on the balcony while Magnier went to his cellar for a good bottle to drown their sorrows. When they both returned the match was over and they had missed the ecstasy of those two late goals.

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  2. Nap Movethechains 14.07 Lingfield in the hope it wins and drifts a bit in betting on a day when there are quite a few contenders that look nappable in tricky small fields…..

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    1. For example the first favourite on each jump card looks a good thing – i’ll do a small stakes treble and see how many come in!

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  3. Nap is Fury Road at 12.45 at Fairyhouse. Pretty short at 4/1 for a Horse PU on last 2 runs.
    Alas this as a day for aficionados of the Sport.
    He is the only Horse who I know name of today and I checked Amiens and Finger Lakes in the States which I always thought was a virtual reality track or some euphemism.

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  4. O’Moore Park to turn over the expensive Glenglass (3.50 Fairyhouse). Also expect a good run from Contemplatemyfaith (2.37 Lingfield). Although he has been purchased as a future chaser, he must have a chance in this field. His second behind the smart My Mate Mozzie reads well now.

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    1. He had to work quite hard there – Khan had to go the long way round and Paddy had to keep him up to his work on the bends. Just as well he stays every yard. It might have been tight up against a better jockey than David Maxwell. That ground is only just on the soft side of good.

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      1. Agreed. I didn’t think Mr Yeats was going that well 3 out but it stayed and stayed and won running away. Khan was hard to see winning by as far as well. Not been a bad day

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  5. It’s time for another Eckley nap and as everyone’s favourite jockey Robbie Dunne has not stepped aside, nor has GForce napped another in the race, then today could be the day. Timeforadance in the last at Hereford is today’s nap.

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  6. Greg Wood revisits the misplaced rumour that Coolmore were lining up Colin Keane to replace Ryan Moore as stable no.1. He concedes that was “wide of the mark” so way mention it? In the Breeders Cup Turf on Saturday Keane gave the hot favourite Tarnawa a lamentable ride. She was never involved at any stage. If that had been a race in the British Isles he would have been up before the beak to explain himself. It was if he was infected with Demot Weld’s pessimistic assessment of the mare’s chances because of her draw in the 13 box. He chose just the wrong moment to bustle her along at the end of the back straight so she was being pushed out wide on the home turn, basically giving Yibir the perfect toe into the race. Maybe the firm ground was against her, but I was sure Keane’s inexperience was clear to see there. Note also that the first, third and fourth were drawn 10, 12 and 14.

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    1. I agree that Colin Keane has been given an easy time because relatively he is helping Horses up the table for Europa League Places without the pressure of challenging for the PL or CL.
      Every Jockey looks good until they are in the hottest of hot seats.
      Then the Ballydoyle mob like me turn on them.
      Only Fallon has avoided my bile since Lester retired.
      I know little about Keane as there isn’t much reason for me to concentrate on him but I wouldn’t open the Champagne if he was appointed as he will likely go the same way as all the others. He has ridden single figures for Ballydoyle and it wouldn’t surprise me if Ioritz Menzibal has ridden more who might be of more interest.
      I support the Glazer Club and it is admirable what Wilf Zaha and Moyes have been doing since leaving that enterprise but that is their level.
      Maguire and Shaw have had 2 succesful successive International competitions but are not up to the true level required..
      Everyone gets little scrutiny when they are showing “promise” but the next Ballydoyle Jockey is likely to disappoint the Ballydoyle mob even more than Ryan Moore.

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  7. Just in the nick of time I noticed that my old pal Neville’s Cross was running today and got a couple of quid on. I wonder if that’s it for the season: last year he won a couple early in the autumn, sat out the winter, and returned with mixed success in the spring/summer. But maybe the chasing experience built up in those warmer months presages a full campaign this season.

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  8. i’m heading out soon to see the excellent Irish Troubadour Declan O Rourke in Glasgow. Thanks to Milton and a few tips here – cheers Luke – it will be a nice bottle of Red with Dinner.

    Cheers all

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  9. Ruth Carr has had a winner for a couple of months…her new acquisition run in the 17:30 New’c may be worth a small ew at 12/1.
    Reigning Profit
    New October 2021. Previously an expensive breeze up buy this 2yo son of Profitable has had 3 pleasing runs in Irish maiden races and is another who will fill into his frame.

    Like

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