Horsetalk Wednesday November 10th 2021

Naps Table – on catchup from Monday, a cracking 9/1 winning nap for Alan in the shape of Well Above Par. Alan followed up yesterday with another one, the 9/4 winner Mr Yeats. Great stuff, Alan. Well done.

Luke H has been a regular on the table this month and scored again with Salley Gardens at 11/4. Nice one, Luke.

David was disappointed at the 2/5 SP of his winner Move The Chains, but I always think of a layman standing outside a betting shop. You say to him, ‘Give me a fiver and I’ll be back in five minutes to give you seven quid’ He’d be delighted.

I need to look more closely at the Ten to Follow, which starts at the weekend. Best solution might be setting up a team name and those who fancy it can enter under that team name. I’ll update the TTF thread shortly.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

45 comments

    1. I reckon Canelo is the nap in the same race Joe. It never ends well when I go against the sages but there has to be a first time eventually!!

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      1. If anyone has a nap they really need to win, perhaps to break a losing run or pay for a year’s school fees, my public opposition is available for a very reasonable fee.

        Nice pick Joe!!

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  1. Two horses running for Mike Grech and Nicky Henderson at Exeter, I Am Maximus (1.10) and Gallyhill (2.40). They are both fruits of Grech’s link-up with Henrietta Knight a couple of years back. Hen always went horse shopping in Ireland and now she has more time again she is busier than ever sourcing young stock, assessing pointers at the sales and advising clients. She is one of the best judges of a horse in the business, and these two she found for Mike Grech are typical of the stamp of jumper she likes best. I AM MAXIMUS is bred along the lines of Goshen, by Authorized out of a Poliglote mare, so like that horse will probably be an out and out two-miler. He won on his only outing in a Cheltenham bumper in October 2020, beating My Drogo no less. My Drogo turned out a month later at Newbury and looking back was one of the bets of the season at 100/30, starting his four-race unbeaten run and his 150+ rating. Maximus then was prevented from running again by one or two niggles, and today he starts over hurdles. He jumps very well – Hen had him schooling before he went to Seven Barrows. It’s a big field but you can discount most of them, and the useful Luttrell Lad has a penalty to carry, although last time he lost nothing in defeat by his stable companion Camprond in the Grade 2 Persian War. If Maximus gets beat today NJH will probably ship him off to Fakenham or Ludlow and he’ll be 1/5. Is it coincidence that a right-handed track has been chosen for his hurdles debut? Has Henderson been lying awake at night worrying about him hanging right like Goshen? He is a superstitious man, Hendo, so I wouldn’t rule it out. Maximus showed no such kinks at Cheltenham, however, and stayed on powerfully up the hill. 4/5 could just be a steal.

    GALLYHILL is a different proposition. The trainer has been saying to everyone who’ll listen that this horse needs fences and three miles already. Well he’s landed him in a trappy little 2m3f novices’ handicap for his chase debut, and has been given what I consider a pretty stiff mark too, at 136. What has he achieved so far? Having won his PTP (in a very slow time on bad ground, but jumped well), he crossed the Irish Sea and debuted in a 2m Newbury novice hurdle where his reputation preceded. He was pretty hard ridden to land the odds of 30/100 that day, but the race has thrown up plenty of winners. Then he went to Ascot in February and started 13/8f 2m3f novice hurdle. It was a Saturday and I couldn’t see him being beaten and backed him accordingly. But he looked lacking in toe even over the longer trip and got seriously outpaced at a critical stage, running on all too late to collar Midnight River who was conceding weight. I recall being bitterly critical of Nico DB on TH that afternoon – routine pocket-talking, you could say, but I still think he fell asleep at the wheel. Aaaanywayyy . . . He was well put off Gallyhill next time out in the Sefton at Aintree, always remembered for Ahoy Senor’s crushing performance. Gallyhill made a noise during the race and was sensibly pulled up – he’s had wind surgery since. But you see my point: 136 for what he has achieved has to be based more on reputation and potential (and astronomical price tag) than on the nuts and bolts of his form. We shall know more today – the sight of those Haldon fences may bring him to life (even over this inadequate trip) and will take wing. He has a stern test in this his chase debut: Coconut Splash gave Chantry House a race at Wetherby, and Jay Bee Why has been the apple of Alan King’s eye for a year and more. He has done well over the summer, evidently, and this is his trip. But it would be lovely for Hen Knight if Gallyhill justifies her faith in him, though: he was bought as a foal by the Costelloes in Co. Clare and that’s where one blessed morning long ago she first set eyes on Best Mate. Comparisons are odious, as they say, but you know what people will say if he dots up today . . .

    Two fascinating prospects to watch, and all part of the fun in this, my favourite part of the jumps season (Oct-Dec) when it’s all about hopes and dreams and before the disappointments begin.

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    1. Very good Harry. I realise that these two may have cost a bit as they came from people who know the time of day, but compare this to the steep prices yesterday for the foals at Tattersalls.

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      1. Mike Grech has always been Mr Fat Wallet at the sales, and especially so just after the dispersal of the Grech & Parkin partnership horses, which is when he engaged Hen Knight to be his personal shopper. That partnership ended, so far as I can gather, because the costs had become unssutainable and the returns insignificant. They had bought a lot of horses at top prices in a short time only for many to disappoint or go wrong. Money can’t buy you love – nor overnight NH success.*

        Possible exception: Cheveley Park in Ireland. But even then the project is being wound up following David Thompson’s death.

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    2. Well well well. What was I saying semi-seriously about Nicky Henderson and his night terrors about I Am Maximus hanging away his chances, like his close relative Goshen? Well it wasn’t hanging RIGHT that was the problem, it was hanging LEFT on this right-handed course. Added to that he was clueless, jumped scratchily and was as green as spring onions. Apart from all that, it was a good run . . .

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      1. Gallyhill did what he had done over hurdles at Ascot, found himself outpaced when the leaders quickened away. He looked a bit clumsy at a couple of fences and I think would enjoy deeper ground as well as a sterner test. He was a tired horse when he fell two out. Not a great day for Messrs Grech, Henderson and De Boinville.

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  2. 3.00 Banger Llandinabo Lad EW NAP

    Wind surgery after last run. Best form of these last year. Trainer has had two sound places at Carlisle and this one has run well fresh. Claimer takes off 5lb.

    1.30 Banger – legends Gold EW NB

    7yo Mare who seems to run well fresh. Nice race weight.

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  3. NAP First Charge 8,0K (going for three-timer on AW, Hollie on board, but Yagood feared.)
    Interesting to see Ryan Moore at Kempton today – I can’t see a standout horse he’s riding.

    Winning nap yesterday, but SP was 7/4 I believe and Joe has made it 11/4, so need a point deduction!

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  4. Quick update on the Irish PTP insurance story.

    Just to correct my figures on the cost of insuring point meetings: the premium per meeting is in the range of 1600 to 1700 pounds, making the season total (100+ meetings; this number is weather dependent and replacement fixtures can be arranged) for insurance 160,000-170,000 approx.
    The latest is that the Southern Region has negotiated its own deal with one London insurance underwriter for 27 meetings at a premium of 36,000 pounds. This is the only region that is properly structured so is able to negotiate as a body. Their strongest argument was that they had never had to make a claim in over 20 years. But this leaves the other regions currently without insurance and reliant on a deal being brokered by the agriculture ministry.
    Furthermore, the strong PTP scene comes under the same umbrella organisation and funding source as in the Republic, but for insurance purposes is in a different jurisdiction so negotiating cover for them is more complicated – particularly with the govt in Westminster being a bit febrile at the moment re. Irish affairs post-Brexit.

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  5. Sabrina at 15.40 at Exeter is my nap trading around 3/1.
    A long time since Modiadem has posted.
    Probably named after Audrey Hepburn in the 1954 Film.
    Surprisingly no ABBA reference to the name that I can locate.

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    1. Great minds, EGS. I was thinking about Moida only this morning, and wondering how long it was since we last heard from him. I do hope he is OK. He did have some health issues. I associate him with three things: 1) being a very shrewd punter; 2) being so thrilled by his membership of the Pentland Hills syndicate; and 3) taking the bookies to the brink with his football accumulators, including one evening when he kept a “ball-by-ball” commentary going as the whole thing was rolling up on 15-game acca, if memory serves.

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      1. He refused to lay off that bet which led to much division of opinion.
        He held his nerve and realised whatever he was responsible for doing days before he had capacity at the time and must take any loss on the chin like a man.
        I also associate him with meticulous pre-thought when Racegoing or making a bet.
        There might be fun involved but it seemed like a side effect to a very serious business.
        Obviously, hoping he is maintaining his health.

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          1. What the eff! I am in trouble with Guardian mods once again. What on earth have you done this time? I hear you cry. I passed on my good wishes to Moida – he hasn’t posted since August and I was getting concerned – and hoped Sabrina will come on for the spin today after her long absence. Well, that was red rag to a bull, wasn’t it. Meanwhile, red cards are flying about as the topics of Zarooni and Coolmore’s jockey arrangements were being aired. Michael is laying about him in inimitable style. It’s like déjà vu all over again.

            I’ve complained to my BFF at the G as per.

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            1. Harry,
              Auldchiel gave wise advice. Re-Register yourself as Larrytheactor on the Guardian website.
              Think of yourself as a Spitting Image of Olivier. Say “Dahling” in every post. Wish Moida “a broken leg” before Sabrina ran pretty ok at Exeter today.
              Don’t mention the name of the Scottish play.
              I think you can go incognito but your fatal flaw will always be your knowledge of PTPs.
              The Refs. might spot that.
              I think you require a code for Points.
              I was thinking maybe you should refer to is as Jousting.
              So in the last Bumper Race at Hexham or Sedgefield on a wet and windy Tuesday afternoon give your usual analysis which we all love but just say that the Horse was placed in 2 Jousts in Ireland, etc and not Points otherwise the Guardian Refs might recognise you.

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              1. There was a right royal joust between the winner and the second in the last event at the Fairyhouse Tilting-yard yesterday. The chivalric honours went to Sir Jamie of Codd, with the young scion of the King (claims five) beaten off in second. Sadly all my treasure had been laid at the feet of “Pa” King, and the bold Sir Jamie and his evil lord and master, Duke Elliott of Cullentra, made off with the spoils.

                [Just practising]

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                1. By Jove, you’ve got it!
                  I feel like Rex Harrison winning that bet.
                  You can now go back to the Guardian website and resume.

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          1. I have thought about the women you meet at Petrol Stations and have factored in Bernadine but I completely missed out at St.Cloud today.
            I was going to build up a coupon today based on M.Barzalona at the same venue because the discussions around the successor to Ryan Moore at Ballydoyle were so fresh in my mind.
            We know how these things work out.

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  6. Nap Exeter 1540 Shirooco’s Dream.. Will my faith in Tizzards be restored?
    Excellent stuff Harry, your thoughts are always welcome and appreciated

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  7. If I don’t mention this and it does well…the blog will have the …aaah missed that one….so for a fun one …Hollie Doyle is on Lady Pendragon 19:30 Kemp

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  8. A Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore first time out 2 yr old at 33/1 or so???

    EW NAP Love Someone 5.00 Kempton….

    You never know!!

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