Horsetalk Friday November 12th 2021

Gforce, Mickle, and Stonor – sounds like a detective agency – all on the winning naps table for yesterday. Gforce a catchup with Shiroccos’ Star at 9/4, Mickle with Chilli Filli at 11/4, and Stonor with Catch The Cuban at 9/4 – fine work, gentlemen.

Our wee filly ran no race, never looking happy: don’t know what’s up with her, but she lives to fight another day.

On the proposed Ten To Follow syndicate, I was too optimistic time wise and I think it’s best left until next year. The deadline is Saturday, so we’d never get everything together for then. Apologies.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

31 comments

  1. Can’t wait to see the exuberant jumping Gin On Lime tackling the stiff Cheltenham fences. She has mopped up this summer and really honed her skills. Now she takes on a Grade 1 winner on unfavourable terms, but even so, My Drogo will have to be on his A game to beat her on his fencing debut. Rachael is back on board Gin On Lime; returning to the scene of her dream week in March, can she do it again?

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  2. I am with Auldchiel in my n.b.
    In real life I have done an e.w double with BDF and Alpha Des Obeaux in the same race.
    However I need a very desperate nap for the purpose of this competition.
    Bun Doran must be in with a shout in the 13.45 at Cheltenham e.w. to be placed. It is 12s. It will not win but might get your stake back in 3rd place.
    The only time I ever went on Holiday as a Child between the the age of 8 to 17 was 2 to 3 day trips from my Parental Home in Leitrim to Bundoran in Coastal Donegal where you always what the temperature of the sea was like but responsible Adults never quibbled about that stuff.

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  3. Chelt 1.10 Neon moon EW Nap

    Unexposed 5yo for the pipe yard. Could be anything. Skybet offering plenty places but I hope he is good enough to get in the top few and he could be one to follow this year.
    Skatman looks a good horse and Art approval ran a nice race at cheltenham on seasonal debut.

    Also Thrown a quid or so ew on the following too,
    Moon over Germany, potters corner, howdyalikemenow (NB)

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    1. Aha! Neon Moon is in my tracker. I think Pipe could win a good race with him but can’t decide whether today’s race is right for him. Yes he seems best when fresh (tick), probably needs a middle distance trip and nice ground (tick, tick), but he has done best on a flat track (Ballingarry PTP, Wincanton) and struggled on undulations and steep finishes (Knockmullen PTP, Chepstow, Cheltenham?). He also on a stiff enough mark for what he has achieved over hurdles. He may come on for the summer break and the wind op may continue to stand to him. All in all, for me there were too many uncertainties for the win bet, but betting down to six places at 11/1 looks the way to go.

      (I expect these colours to be seen in the winner’s enclosure at Worcester in the 2.10.)

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      1. Thanks Harry – I hope we are right. Skybet a 7 places is fair and I think he has a great chance to hit one of those, Maybe hit the win which I agree will be tough.
        I know the top 3 In the market have been well Supported so it will be Interesting to see how the race pans out. They are now all around the 3-1
        Mark which isn’t appealing much to myself.
        Agreed on the 2.10 also … I’ve had a little bet myself.

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  4. Moon Over Germany caught my eye in the 1.45. He looks too big at 40/1 and worth a wee bet on his debut for Robin Dickin (from De Bromhead). He’s been badly out of sorts for some time, but he won the Grade 3 Red Rum Chase in 2019 by 10 lengths from Lady Buttons. Last year he was 6th in the County Hurdle, beaten 11 lengths. Needs a resumption of form, but it wouldn’t be the first time a yard change has worked that oracle.

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    1. I agree Joe. Have taken a small ew and a skybet win bet with cash back if 2/3rd

      A lot of horse for the 40-1 but it comes with many imponderables…. His mark, running fresh? New trainer ? Wind op?
      I think he needs to sit in the pack/off the pace and try get in a rhythm as there looks to be some serious pace in this. The Moore horse in particular is a keen going one.
      Fingers crossed though it would be some winner! 🤞

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  5. Bun Doran arrives off the back of a wind operation (you never can tell if these are minor or major can you??) Into a race he has won before, with Cheltenham form that includes a third in the Champion chase. Double figure odds look generous, unless he is as gone in his wind as I am!!

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  6. Don’t know if I got side tracked by the cricket cheering on Pakistan (sorry Slowhand) – I’d backed an England v Pakistan final so wtf do I know?- but I settled down to my Cheltenham ruminations. Somewhere there must be a decent bet on a Fergal hurdler that had been laid out. First race, first appeal. 10s, loads of places, that’ll do. 6s was the best! Was it now value? Perhaps wait until the BOG offers on the day? Its either still a good bet or more likely a poor bet at bad value. Anyway:
    Nap Chelts 1330 Art Approval
    I selected 3 and they had all diminished in price before I could get on. Fools seldom differ. Elsewhere Black Poppy would be an appropriate choice. I expect it to be napped in the Grauniad.

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  7. In “The Boot and Shoe” Greystoke to get a reliable internet connection…was hoping to get some feedback and tips re Nicky Richards horses…but the locals are keeping schtum..Weekend in the Lakes always a good excuse to find a pub with good Wi-Fi connection….good luck with tips today

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    1. You could ask if any of them was on yesterday’s 33/1 winner at Sedge! Not many of Nicky’s start at that price on a northern track, never mind win!

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        1. Yup, great sit – but that looked like another mistake from Harry Skelton, did he need to challenge on the outside there. I don’t think so.

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          1. Agreed luke. I don’t think he had to go when he did.
            Interesting he did the opposite of what ruby said he would do as he was commentating. Ruby would have taken the inside again and went after.
            In fairness It was a light fall from My Drogo, almost like his knees went a bit from under him.
            He jumped well overall for his first round and had jumped better than Gin and Lime who just couldn’t get a rhythm at all.

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            1. I don’t think Harry is a bad jockey. A bit of bad luck today, matches are tricky! Rachel sat great.. You see her looking at him and thinking. STAY ON.

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              1. I don’t think he’s bad, just suffers from a bit of a rush to the head near the end of some races, when he knows he’s on a good one, and sometimes they slip up, in my opinion. I think he’s lucky Dan is his brother, as he gets chances some other jockeys would love to have, who are possibly better. I don’t want to denigrate any jockey, but I think, all things being equal, the very best, might not make those mistakes, sometimes…. hedging my bets!

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  8. Pretty smart bit of training by Charles Byrnes to win a Grade 2 with a novice on its hurdle debut – especially an away game like Cheltenham. You would have to bear Blazing Khal in mind for the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett next spring.

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