Horsetalk Sunday November 14th 2021

Naps Table – Nice for the blog to nap the Paddy Power winner as the season begins to warm up – Midnight Shadow 9/1.

The Steelman landed his nap at 9/2 – Knights Salute. And Luke H nailed his 6th nap of the month with Little River Bay at 11/8 – nice work, gents.

As forecast by a few on here, Saturday’s racing was tough for winner pickers. I think Sunday looks even tougher. Having said that, to my eye Put The Kettle On seems strong nap material and is overpriced at around 7/4. Unbeaten here, gathering two Grade Ones and two Grade Twos, let’s hope she does not slip at one of the last 2 fences, as quite a few have done at this meeting so far. I’m surprised the stewards did not take a look at the landing side on both.

I’ve backed Echoes In The Rain for the Champion Hurdle, but she looks very short on her seasonal debut in the Morgiana at Punchestown against some decent horses.

Anything you would take from Saturday for your notebook? I liked Bonntay a lot, and I wonder where Fergal will send her next. I thought the Skelton horse Unexpected Party finished with a fair bit of running left, the race not going his way for various reasons.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

52 comments

  1. Brilliant tip yesterday Joe. Is it after-timing to say I backed it on the basis of Joe (and Greg Wood’s) advice? FWIW I’m happy to go my own way on the flat but am more than happy to follow anything Joe or Dilton might put up over jumps. With that grovelling out of the way obviously the nap is No Ordinary Joe in the Greatwood. Ps I doubt it will resound with many on here but was in tears after Strictly Come Dancing – I was going to advise backing Rose to be winner, then saw how odds have collapsed in last hour (basically backing Arkle in a 3 mile chase against Soba) but it’s money in the bank.

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    1. Aftertiming. Our old friend.
      I have no idea who Rose is or what Strictly Come Dancing is as I am a Wigged High Court Judge who has never heard of the Beetles (sic) but I have to give you 100 points for what you have just divulged in the Aulchiel Booby Prize.

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      1. I had crash wrote it off agaist truck trailer.i was so happy to getting saved by seat belt airbags shot OUT..
        Really scared at but my toes weere moovingso i no leg injury or heàď injury bebgut
        Im wr3ecked

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        1. Naymargus, hope you are all OK now. Must have been a big shock. Don’t worry about the motor (I know that is easier said than done as a car is a fundamental part of day to day life but the insurance will take care of all that). The main thing is you / your health. All the best.

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        2. Hope you got yourself checked over and you are resting up. As others have said, the most important thing is that you’re in one piece.

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        3. Please don’t worry about the vehicle. Any road accident you survive pretty much intact is a cause for high celebration. I hope you are feeling better soon.

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        4. I’ve had 2 near misses with trailers at night.
          The right rear light not working and you can go to overtake thinking it’s a motorbike.
          As has been said like falling off a bike you have to jump back on quickly despite being hyper alert

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        5. Very sorry to hear about the accident. A frightening experience! Never mind about the car, your health and well being are the main things. Get well soon.

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        1. I get the feeing EGS makes up the rules on the fly. I will remain anonymous for this comment as he may add 100 points to my score for the month.

          PS. I’m not napping anything on my trip to Tampa Bay Downs opening meeting next week.

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      2. I needed help last night as I was in a confined space (motorhome) and had no choice ,, courtesy of the one that has to be obeyed , and had to endure Strictly..in the middle of nowhere and no escape…pass me another beer pet…helped me get through it😅

        ictly

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        1. I’ve a similar problem in the caravan. Why do Corrie and Emmerdale take preference over sport? The red wine rack in the awning helps.

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  2. Well done Joe.
    When I first looked on Tuesday, he was high on my list. He always runs well there. Such an open race though, the more you looked, the more you changed your mind.
    You have to think the runner up will win a good race this season.

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  3. Well done Joe on Midnight Shadow.
    Does winning that Race happen thrice in a lifetime?
    I am still on one and don’t expect to see a second.

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    1. Holy hell! You don’t see many winning that easily! Nice nap. Natural History (backed several Gary Moore horses today) made up my complete blank on selections today, but had a good day yesterday. Hope you found some others too, Alan.

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        1. In addition…at Carlisle there is a serious dip where you can’t see the horses…was sure that they all stopped,..jumped off their mounts and shared a couple of cans and have a fag break before they sorted themselves out into who was going to win, jumped back on and continued…lol

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  4. The Cheltenham card seems to have been designed by a computer virus to take our money with the 14.20 showing it might have evolved the power of humour.
    I am going through a 3rd place phase and Rowland Ward who has form figures of 444 appeals to come 3rd in the 14.55.
    For the nap I will go G1 with Sharjah in the 14.05 at Punchestown.

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    1. And tommy brett has 22/1 winner. Jeeeeeez he has 1 for m mullins.
      Sire getaway winners yesterday dunno about today
      Thanks everyone gor well wishes just massive chest PAINS. TKS

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        1. Oh i been in ambulance and hospital all the works.
          Its like war zone in hospital corridors ets.
          Oh im home now chest spasm pains if i move the wrong way.
          I had big car crash yrs ago head INJURYS blood etc this is just from seatbelt airbag SHOCK.
          I will be fine if im patient..tks
          Am debating to put money in paddypowers a win would ease my pains..

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  5. I’d agree with Joe – the Skelton horses all had various levels of misfortune ….
    Protektorat finished with zest having been further back in the field. Proschema fell whilst travelling well and Unexpected party would certainly have been closer given less
    Mistakes and a different jockey (sorry pocket is talking here)

    On another note – Milton H winning was a proper highlight and his Horse looks like the best Juvenile this side of the water. I’d say Fire lake and pyramid place ran well to form also so he is definitely a trainer to keep on side.

    Oscar elite is the NAP 1.10 Chelt.
    This is a horse I followed last season and who I think can make into a staying chaser. Tizzard yard is in hot form and I hope he can make use of the weight he receives today.

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    1. The main misfortune afflicting the Skelton horses is the familial loyalty shown in jockey selection.

      As for today’s card at Cheltenham, it really shows off how crap a 5 day festival would be. A hodge podge of races ending with the “oh shit we still have to find another event even for a 6 race card, sod it we’ll add in a bumper and pretend it is Listed quality that’ll fool the punters”.

      As for a nap, well Nige’s are running well and he must fancy a double, Gifford’s is being backed having run doggy last time but the nap goes on Botox Has to see if he remembers how well he won here first up, rather than his nasty fall at Plumpton last time over fences.

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  6. Glad you mentioned the landing areas Joe. How many is that now? Seems unfair for tiring horses to come down after a sound jump in most cases.

    Followed you and Greg for a rare winner in what is usually a great race to watch so early in the season.

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  7. An each way nap today. Gary Moore has a good hand at Fontwell but they won’t all win…Dorking Lad can be a NB while the nap is Ew at Cheltenham for Glory and Fortune 2.55.

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  8. NAP Botox Has EW 2.55 Ch (I’ve taken 6 places at 13-1)
    A real shame I can’t find anything to put in my favoured EW double bet, I’m doing a few short-priced ones in a win combo, but poor ITV races from a betting point of view.
    Having said that I’ll enjoy watching some good horses today, and hopefully some will live up to the hype or repeat old form.
    I too was impressed with Unexpected Party – if not clouting a hurdle and dropping into crowd trouble, would certainly have given the winner a closer race. A little recompense with it in an EW treble, but the win would have been a lot better! I hope Midnight Shadow reappears in December in the same form – without the slip at the last should have been a lot further clear 🙂

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  9. I was considering rowing in with Botox Has or Put the Kettle On as I’ve backed them both, but as the worst placing
    Nap Chelt 1530 Washington
    can achieve is 3rd (EGS take note) then I’ll risk the novice element in the title. I really did say to SWMBO before the 2 horse spectacular novice chase ‘this could be a good watch, anything can happen’. Hope the outcome here is a thrilling 3 way photo and I’ve not put a hex on man or animal.

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  10. Managed, at least, to get some back with the third of my three picks yesterday. Only bet today is No Ordinary Joe in the Greatwood – I can’t imagine Lord Gollygosh sticking this one into such a hot race if it wasn’t something a bit special.

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    1. I’m on that one too Bacci – fingers crossed. Shame my Nap Oscar elite fell. I think he would have been in the thick of it at the finish !
      Hope Bua boy can do the business in a competitive race

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  11. Great to see Yala Enki win there, one of my favorites. Always carries loads of weight and never runs a bad race! Bryony seems to get on really well with him.

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  12. Last year Gordon Elliott broke a run of nine consecutive winds for Willie Mullins in the Morgiana Hurdle, when Abacadabras edged out Saint Roi. And that was only because Mikey Walsh rode an ill-judged race that day. Now the world is back on its axis with the redoubtable Sharjah winning for Closutton again. Still rated a lofty 164 at the age of going on nine, he would be a household name in any other yard. The young pretender Zanahiyr ran OK though massively badly served by the race conditions, but I can’t see him winning the Champion Hurdle this season

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  13. Vanillier looks an ideal type for the NH Chase next spring after his win in the Florida Pearl. Not bad going to win a Grade 2 on only your second start over fences, and he sauntered to victory when the favourite Sixshooter fell when beaten. He obviously stays all day and has a good cruising speed. He is still on offer at 10/1 (from 14s) generally.

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  14. With you on Sharjah, Harry – a really good horse.
    On a negative note, RIP Mount Windsor, who I don’t think should have been ridden to the line, looked wrong to me before that, but can’t know what the jockey felt.
    On a positive note, after a bit of critcism of Harry Skelton, could not begrudge him, or connections, the elation on West Cork winning – impressive after 631 days off!

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  15. I’m almost shaking with the shock. Precisely 20 minutes ago I a tried posting on Talking Horses. OK, I know I shouldn’t, it’s like scrumping apples from the vicarage garden. As per usual it disappeared into this air. But wait – two minutes ago it suddenly reappeared under my name! I imagine it has been torn to shreds, chewed up and spat out by the pointy heads in the moderation labs. After rigorous testing it was found to be totally harmless. Isn”t science wonderful?

    I’m now taking the first train back from Siberia. All Aboard!

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