Horsetalk Wednesday November 17th 2021

Two winning naps on Tuesday provided by Rob J and GForce: Rob had Bill Baxter and Gforce Soft Risk. Both returned at 1/2. Nice work, gents.

I see Ruby Walsh has chipped in on the John Warwick case, suggesting that samples of hair and blood which are effectively in storage, should now be tested for whatever was found at Warwick’s ‘clinic’. That sounds sensible to me. There’s still no word on the alleged UK trainers cabal who hired the PI. This ought to run and run, and the authorities would do well to take action long before the jumps season drifts toward Cheltenham in March, though I suspect they won’t.

Barry Orr kindly confirmed today that two badges for the Tingle Creek will be the prize for the Betfair November Naps Table winner. The plan is that I send him the email address of the winner and he will take it from there.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

36 comments

      1. Totally agree, a great innovation, if you can innovate with veterans??

        Anyway the nap is Now Mcginty. My entirely unscientific belief being that the 10 year old hold an advantage in these races and I don’t fancy Daly’s much (we all know what happens next!!). Hope Mr Edmunds can pull off a training feat of some virtuosity.

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  1. Yep Ruby has now added some comment. I think what he has said is fair. Jim Bolger must have some evidence to support his statement but is unwilling to share.
    Maybe he wants to scare others into thinking twice but the only way of doing that really is to catch or expose some of the culprits.
    Also he is fair to ask if Warwick has also been practicing in England ?
    Also it’s what context is the doping in – is it drugs to recover from injury quicker? Not to feel
    Injury or fatigue ?
    If that’s the case then I assume the drug may be out the horse system by the time it comes to its race day or it’s drugs that are not currently tested for. Until they report exactly what chemical it is we will all be guessing ….

    Anyways …. Patrick Mullins certainly has a talent for writing. I seen his article on Sharjah published today in the RP app for free. Very Interesting, loved how he takes you through his pre race thoughts and the race itself.

    Must say I was Kicking myself today. Had two horses shortlisted for my nap yesterday and picked the loser. The Cawley horse Ask blossom Ford won at 17/2. Typical.

    Il have my nap up tommrow and hope I can get on track and pick the right one!

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  2. Nap. Brooksway Fair. Ffos Las 12.50.
    Beat the 138 rated Orbys Legend in his point. So strong possibilities off a mark of 83.
    Has been a bit disappointing, but the 6/1 has now gone, so a bold showing maybe expected.

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    1. Yep, he’s an interesting one. Orbys detested the ground that day in a race when only two finished, but the form is in the book for all to see, and Brooksway’s mark hardly reflects his potential. Trouble his, he’s been backed the last thrice and hardly threatened to trouble the judge. I’d be quite keen if it was heavy – and I mean proper Ffos Las heavy, like it was that day at Knockmullen. And there are one or two others in the field that the Welsh mafia are teeing up for a punt somewhere along the line (yes, Bebraveforglory, I’m looking at you) and today might be the day? The Fry favourite was jacked up ten big ones for his maiden win, the first run after a wind op. Before that he looked decidedly moderate. But these thoracic surgeons are very clever chaps and chapesses, as we know, so perhaps his breathing is as clean as a whistle second time around.

      Good luck..

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      1. Very well done, Robi. A short head in it, but that means the handicapper can’t put him up too much. That was a classic Evan Williams project. And as predicted, the Fry horse was weak under that new mark.

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        1. Thanks Harry. Got 9/2. Thought he had to be kidded home a little. Given a very confident ride. Still on the bridle until the run in. Yes, a short head. Value for a little more I feel.

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  3. Theres nothing that I know about that can make a horse run faster than its capable of.
    All have an optimum speed /class ,its then down to how sound they are and how fit they are physically and upstairs in the mind.

    It’s easy to get a horse race fit ,it really is ,I could teach anyone on here how to do it very quickly ,the trick is keeping the horse there .Sound in mind and body,then entering it correctly . It would amaze you how many horses run unfit ,unsound and poorly entered.

    No matter how good your mechanic is he wont turn an Aygo into a Porche ,same goes with horses.

    Theres well known things that you can do to make that horse ,whatever its optimum speed is, keep going for longer . Preventing lactic acid is very easily done by milk shaking. That shows up if tested very easily. There was a product kicking about 25 or so years ago that claimed to mask it .
    It didnt .

    People were caught tubing horses in the horsebox, even in the stable yard . It’s still a problem in Aussie .

    You can feed a horse bucket loads of dandelions a week before it runs and that will have the same effect as Lasix,they are natures diuretics without all the nasty side effects of the latter .Mixing their feed with beer has exactly the same effect .They wont show up on the test ,your horse that bursts stands a better chance first time out .

    Steroids in all their forms will enable a horse to be trained harder so that its fitter ,they dont make a horse run faster no matter what anyone says .

    They will help an unsound horse be able to be trained by recovering from injuries quicker . However , all have bad side effects when stopped ,all have varying recommended stop dates ,horses have varying responses to those ,you easily get it wrong and then you are stuffed.
    They show up on the tests .

    The Gain feed additive fiasco with the growth hormone Zilpaterol added still has not been explained ,its in the long grass.

    Regumate ,used to control a mares cycle worked very well on both sexes ,its use is banned here ,not in Ireland still I think though that was under review ,you know what that means .

    Caffeine improves horses no end ,they eat for fun on it so you can train them harder , use it until 7 days before a race and then stop and you are fine .

    Every time the rep comes around in his van theres another wonder product available that’s fully legal . It’s a licence to make money.

    Heres the thing though.
    In the states recently a drug developed in Mexico was outed by a whistle blower which was then tested for and found resulting in all hell breaking loose with trainers arrested ,banned etc .

    Baffert got caught out for one .

    Now that drug was freely available worldwide via a couple of characters who marketed it as undetectable and supplied a masking agent . It was a steroid with a lactic acid inhibitor apparently and it turned average horses into better ones because they had a stronger muscle mass thus sounder , could have the shit galloped out of them at home making them very fit and therefore could gallop longer without tying up. Many pulled their ring through on it and rolled over at home.

    The rumour has been that it’s used “abroad ” and why the bloke admitted he had drugs with him that shouldnt be in the country and were going with him to Kuwait should be more of a worry than his routine laser treatment which hes very good at .
    Very clever people are developing these sort of drugs all the time to stay ahead of the testers .

    Anyone with a brain knows how to jab horses in racing so why would horses be transported to a location ,other than to receive the laser treatment. , if you are training on the needle you can do it yourself in private without anyone else knowing. It doesn’t make any sense .

    As for 56 boxes being logged, they drop off , drive out ,return to collect and drive out , 4 chances to get photographed, 2 main ones when arriving each visit. The bloke treats ponies upwards ,not just THBs.

    As Ruby said ,Bolger should put up or shut the friar tuck up . ( that’s for Michael by the way )

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    1. Dilton,
      Great post as ever and sadly the first line is most appropro as I wouldn’t want to be a Horse living in a World of the Snake Oil Merchants out there.

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    2. Very informative Dilton – it does make you think a bit that if its easy enough in other ways to fiddle a horse why the Cloak and Dagger? There’s a book plot there for Joe!

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  4. Rob suggested yesterday that there were bad cards and I agree.
    There is an argument that this is the worst week of weekday Racing for the year for someone like me but I know there are horror shows to come in December and January.
    Today all real meetings seem to be cancelled and there is just virtual meetings and I never bet on them.
    I once tried to visit Warwick Racecourse but all I saw was fake Jousting at the Castle.
    It doesn’t exist.
    Hexham has Good in the going. That meeting is being done today by a computer on a virtual reality basis.
    The Racecourse I know does exist is at Reims as I saw it with my own 2 eyes. I didn’t pay to enter as the line-up had nothing in it from Ballydoyle but I did briefly see it from afar.
    I have recently been testing my theory that very low brow French Trainers and Owners selectively prefer to lay out Horses with a Joan of Arc related name to either Reims where she effectively Crowned the Dauphin or Compiegne where she was caught by the Burgundians (I don’t why I said that with a Sid James accent).
    Nothing has really struck me at Reims today (pronounced Vance or Rance dependent on which part of your upper airway you are choking) apart from a very loose reference in the 13.12 where Gloria France runs but I generally like to seek out some hotter name than that. It will have to be my e.w. nap.
    What did strike me (like Joan) was the entire Racecard.
    6 of the 8 Races are only contested by Horses with the same initial Prenom.
    It is exclusively G,H or I.
    It must contradict European Law as why not A, B, C?
    I know you think I have (suddenly) gone mad but can someone verify my already triangulated methods that there is a Racecard at Reims built solely on a Horse Name?
    Horses didn’t asked to be brought in to this world and they find themselves prodded and poked about by cowboys but I think competing on the basis on the 1st letter of your prenom takes the biscuit.

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    1. I know this one as in early days of lockdown in intruiged me when france was racing before UK. Its like a reg plate on a car and signifies year. Foals from 2017 say have to start with an F, 2018 a G etc.

      It cuts down your naming options and only apply to some horses but that’s the reason

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      1. David,
        You should have never revealed this to us before and have been witholding information which is a mortal sin.
        How did a Horse called Zellie win the Prix Marcel Boussac Boussac recently when she must have been born around the time of the 2CV creation?

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        1. it only applies to some horses…The internet tell us….

          For A.Q.P.S. – Autre Que Pur Sang (translated means other than thoroughbred) horses, which includes trotters, anglo-arabs, as well as what are known as “half-breds”, each year requires a horse’s name to begin with a designated letter of the alphabet.

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  5. Ooo, this is like being back on Talking Horses. It’s great to see some old faces. I’ll have a little dabble at the tipping if I may today? 3.10 Ffos – Dysania E/W. From reading Charlie’s website – he likes the potential of this horse.

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  6. Nap is MOLLY CAREW ew in the 14:00 at Ffos Las

    I am heading to the UK for Christmas and New Year. Assuming I’m allowed out I have a ticket for Kempton Park on 27/12 and more importantly a ticket for Chelsea on 29/12.

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  7. More tricky cards. Ayr was a good meeting yesterday from what I caught – a few good finishes.

    One or two ponential naps already picked so I’ll go with Bonnet in the last at Warwick, though the money for the NTD newcomer is an obvious concern.

    Luck all

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  8. I remember backing The New One on this day many years ago on her debut in this Warwick junior bumper – someone had given me the tip. I think they like this Madam Malarkey too, so we will see if she turns out half as good as TNO was.

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      1. That is 59 points for you, Luke in a 10 runner field.
        Harry gets no points as like in the game of snap you have to shout nap and Harry didn’t but you did.

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