Horsetalk Friday November 19th 2021

Yesterday, GForce picked up where he left off with another winning nap – Springwell Bay at 8/11 – you’re pouring the pressure on GForce.

David’s well in the hunt with another successful nap in 13/8 chance Armattiekan – nice work, David.

And Jonathan Dawe is back with us napping a nice 10/3 winner in Norley. Well done, JD.

Among Thursday’s comments on the main thread was Harrytheactor’s excellent essay on Brelan D’As, who did the business again. I posted the comment on Twitter and it stirred lots of reaction. You can see it here – https://twitter.com/steeplechasing – just scroll down a bit.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

37 comments

    1. Managed to get 8/1 Highway one O two. Ascot 2.40. Ew nap.
      Harry is correct about the JP Ex Irish horses.
      Blazer at Catterick tomorrow. 20/1 would be massive if they were serious.

      Like

    1. I do indeed. A succinct story that still has massive implications for racing in general and Godolphin in particular. I would highlight two morsels to chew on:
      “Keith Chandler, president of the British Equine Veterinary Association, said some of the drugs seized [from a Dubai govt plane at Stansted and from on of Darley’s stud farms in Newmarket] should be ‘kept under lock and key in a safe’. He added: ‘They really are medicines that should not be on the premises of any horse owner, no matter how experienced.’
      And secondly, the reminder that one month before the drug seizure from the plane, the Godolphin trainer M al-Zarooni received an 8-year ban for administering anabolic steroids to 22 horses. “The British Horseracing Authority, in a report on the affair, said he had acted ‘autonomously’.”

      Sheikh Mohammed instructed his junior wife Princess Haya to conduct an internal investigation. The ruler of Dubai divorced the Princess under Sharia law. She was not notified until a later date. Meanwhile the BHA are still a bit vague on the definition of the word “autonomously”.

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      1. I was thinking of Sir Ivor the other day and Vincent sending him off to Winter in Italy after his 2 yo season was finished.
        The theory was he didn’t need to shed a shaggy coat the following Spring and that may give him an advantage.
        Godolphin used to pack off their 2yos to Dubai in Winter under the same premise.
        They no longer do this apart from those who are to run at the Dubai Festval.
        My theory is that Dubai Vets and their Horse Racing Regulatory Body were standing up to his methods without fear or prejudice of the consequences and he knows he has an easier ride in England.
        For the first 20 years of Godolphin’s existence we were led to believe that the Horses were trained by Sheikh Mohammed with an ex-Policeman in a nominal role plucked from a Police line-up.
        How the Horse Racing Journos and Broadcasters loved that.
        He is even a master trainer of Falcons and assistant Trainer to a Camel stable.
        How they lapped it all up. The most common word used in connection with him and maybe still is ‘Sportsman’. The 2 most common words were ‘True Sportsman’.

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        1. I know what you mean. I remember when racing was on the BBC (oops – showing my age there) and the likes of Peter O’Sullevan and Julian Wilson getting all misty eyed about “The Boys in Blue”. It was as if they were plucked from obscurity by Stock Aitken and Waterman and reborn as the heartthrobs of a nation. Everyone loves a fairy tale. But the Brothers Grimm were behind this one.

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  1. There’s a few that are far too short a price to nap, so in hope he can defy the weight on his return (can’t believe his last run was February, where’s this year gone?), I’ll nap Mr Washington (15:25, Chepstow). I’d expect him to place, but in the interests of the tipping table I’ll go for the win.

    Like

  2. mm. Quite a few small fields again which i like to watch but makes the races a bit trappy looking at winners. The likeable Getalead is out again today but it had a hard race a few days ago and im not going to add to its burdens by napping it – will be impressed if it can go in again tho. I’ll nap Gaolios for Nichols in he chepstow 14.20. The naps table is interestinng, i can imagine in the last few days of November there will be a few big priced naps that could scoop the prIze!

    Cheers also to Harry for yesterdays excellent post – “Tell Richie its his Gold Cup” is a particularly good line

    Like

  3. Agree with the comments above regards Field size and trappy races. Well that’s my excuse for my dismal performance recently …..
    But a few decent priced winners and the NAP table can flip in it’s head!

    Need to heavens to open for a few few weeks in the UK and Ireland to allow the proper big guns to come out. I see plenty comment from Mullins/ Henderson yards etc that they are weeks behind due to the weather.

    Milton sends one Bari breeze to catterick in the 12.10. Quite a journey for one horse and it’s a massive step up in trip. I’ve had a quid or two Ew.

    My Nap is Getmegold for the Tizzards in the 3.50 Chepstow. He also steps up in trip and Has had his first run and hopefully be ready to win in a race like this at a decent enough price. Jockey takes off 3lb.

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  4. The Olly Murphy stable has hit the wall – no winners yesterday! ok Hendo’s filly gets 12lbs but Go Dante must be as near a sure fire as it gets; tempting as it is I’ll forego that and
    Nap 1220 Doctor Ken
    who is a bit short taking in opposition from a host of top stables. Sky were offering 2s the double which seems fine but now its 13/8, which must say something.
    Or perhaps not!

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  5. Nap is SMARTY WILD at Ascot in the 14:05

    I see Belfast Banter (maybe the still racing grandson of talking wonder horse Simply Great) is coming up for sale in an online auction next Tuesday. He would make a wonderful Christmas Present for me.

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  6. Lord Glitters at 40/1.
    He comes up on this forum as a regular e.w. tip and I hope some of you were on. He was trading at 11/1 when I looked last night which was just enough for me to hold back the e.w. bet. If it was showing at 12/1 I would have placed the bet, made him my nap and turned the competition on it’s head.

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    1. I looked at the race about 2 minutes before the off. He was 28/1 on Bet365. I thought that was big + an had an ew bet on him.
      40s bog. Weekend has started early😊

      Liked by 1 person

      1. 50 points for Aftertiming Type A where a winner is posted after the Race Result unbeknownst to us all beforehand.
        I awarding myself 25 points for Aftertiming Type B where a poster states how excruciatingly close they were to backing a long priced winner unbeknownst to us all beforehand.
        I don’t how the SPs work in Bahrain and how did bet 365 decide on 11/1 last night and then settled at 40/1.
        I think the big wins in this competition may be predicated on a Horse that drifted not on Stable confidence but some flaw in how the odds are returned.

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        1. I’d like 10 points for looking at the card when I got up this morning, selecting LG and then finding out my betting site did not allow me to bet on this race.

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          1. No. I think that is cruel. It happens to me in many European Countries where you are allowed to bet on random numbers but not on some action over which you have conscious control and know it was your own fault and not some strange person rolling a tombola.
            So I am deducting 50 points from you particularly as you admitted Simply Great was a talking horse which leaves LukeH as the leader on 139 points. He missed out on a Hat Trick today but gave it his best shot.

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              1. Thanks EGS – I am winning at something… the hat trick was so close… coulda, woulda, shoulda – – After your pick of Magny Cours, I looked at the card in Bahrain, and if I hadn’t been going out, if Magny cours was shorter, I might have bet on the race, it’s possible that of all the others, I would have picked Lord Glitters!

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  7. I’m looking forward to one of my favourite races in the pre-Christmas part of the season, the Stayers Hurdle at the November Haydock meeting. Some wonderfully tough horses have found the perfect test to bring out their main quality – their an ability to stay every yard of just shy of three miles at a hot pace, often in awful ground. Just look at some of the winners: there’s the Pipe pair Dynaste (he made a stirring impression that day, probably his finest hour) and Grands Cru; the super smart Diamond Harry; that wonderful future chaser from the much missed Malcolm Jefferson, According To Pete; and don’t forget Alan King’s Halcon Genelardais who won it en route to landing the Welsh National, a terrific training performance. In recent seasons the race seems to have been cornered by specialist staying hurdlers who may not have gone on to be higher rated chasers, such as Baradari, Sam Spinner and Paisley Park, not forgetting another Pipe handicapper in last year’s Main Fact. So it takes a good one to win it, as the cliche has it.

    Looking at the winners’ list I’m not sure my ante-post selection quite ranks with any of them but at least he stays well and is unexposed: BASS ROCK from the Alastair Thomson yard. He is very adept at laying one out and has been in a bit of form in the past few weeks. The horse impressed at Ayr last time and took a hit for that, but he is an improver having been campaigned with bigger days in mind. The second horse came out and franked the form on Wednesday, beating a handicap blot of Newland’s. His jockey Ryan Mania is on the crest of a wave just now too. I do like Orbys Legend too, who did me a good turn at Chepstow. While he wouldn’t be certain to get this trip, especially if they go a searching gallop, he has a touch of class about him. A race to savour in a very attractive programme at Haydock.

    Liked by 1 person

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