Horsetalk Saturday November 20th 2021

Naps update – Gforce is still setting the pace with another winning nap on Friday – Doctor Ken 4/7.

Mickle is back with Give Me a Moment at 1/1, and Alan too with Captain Morgs at 7/4. The blog shook off the last two days with a winner in Sarasota Star at 9/4. Well done, all.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.

This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

50 comments

  1. There are more than a few Horses running tomorrow who have been in the last chance saloon for so long the Bouncers have forgot they were there.
    I expect a Playlord masterpiece on the Betfair Chase on the Guardian forum later on and his analyses on BDM over the years are etched in tablets of stone.
    I always wonder when the legs of such a committed runner might go and as this is his manor he is under pressure as if his legs give out tomorrow then they might really be gone.
    A Plus Tard should win but he is also under pressure.
    It is not the fact that he is the first Irish Horse for eons to contest this Race but the Trainer wants him admirably to be one of the few top Irish Horses recently to contest my favourite NH Race; the KG.
    De Bromhead is thinking of the million and is hoping that if it gets thwarted it will be his own Stablemate.
    A Plus Tard has a lot to prove to instil my confidence in this crusade.
    I am going for Royal Pagaille to run in to a place in an 8 runner field at around 9/1.
    Relatively unexposed. Course and distance winner albeit on Heavy.
    I know this ground should count against any French Bred but I am hoping he can be nursed along in to 3rd.
    Royal Pagaille in the 15.00 at Haydock is my e.w. nap.

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    1. I wrote a reasonably wrong Betfair piece in response, but the ether has sucked it into some remote dustbin, never to be found, so I’ll summarise.

      Bristol De Mai most reliable bet in the race using Skybet’s money back if 2nd or 3rd offer.
      Can’t see Rachael bottoming A Plus Tard – this is often a brutal race.
      Imperial Aura bled at Cheltenham and this is blood country.
      Chatham Street Lad should outrun his odds and is an alternative for the Skybet offer
      Last season Royal Pagaille’s jumping wouldn’t have been good enough for this. I wonder what Venetia has done to improve it?
      I believe Waiting Patiently went wrong at Ascot when beating Cue Card and has never been the same since. I doubt a new trainer will help.
      Tom George ain’t feared of these levels, having already worn out a dozen Don Quixote suits in cosplay. I hope he gets a few quid in place money.

      Good luck
      Joe

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    2. M dickinson has runner 8.53 laural park.
      Josie carrol in woodbine as usual.
      I never bet on saturdays but sunday mornings south africa skinned me yrs ago.
      Will i ever learn…

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  2. Royal Pagaille was one of my thoughts … I won’t oppose you but shall be putting it into a lucky 15 ..your posts are always a joy to read… ádh mór with your tip

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  3. Ascot 2.05.
    I feel there are a few question marks against the market leaders here.
    I’ll make the younger progressive Pistol Whipped a sporting nap. 12/1.

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  4. Some good races to look forward to this afternoon. Got a soft spot for Bristol but suspect a plus tard might be too good. Which defi de seuil will turn up at Ascot? Would love to see a return to the tenacity of a few years ago.

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  5. I was going to go for dashel drasher (Ascot, 14:05) (NB) as my nap, due to coarse record, but instead I’ll nap might I (haydock, 12:10). Good luck all

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  6. I’m on Bass rock EW today with Orbys legend as a saver. I see Harry has done a write up on Bass rock and Joe is on Orbys so I hope I’m in the right track with those.
    The rest of the races in UK I’m happy to watch unfold.

    For the Nap table bet I’ve went over to Gowran to the mares race 3.23pm.
    Emily Roebling has seen a bit of money since last night but has some solid enough back form. She Has had her seasonal prep and I’m having an EW bet looking to see if I can hit the bullseye at a potentially decent price.

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  7. Plenty to go at today and I backed plenty last night so I’ll avoid ones that have already gone eg Orbys ew as this race looks made for him (though I also had an ew on Bass Rock) and Pistol Whipped where the money also looks to be down. Several are travelling in hope so I’ll plump for
    Nap 1315 Haydock Tommy’s Oscar
    who deserves an Oscar as he never seems to run a bad race.
    Robj deserves an Oscar for his winner too. Don’t know why DN wants to know how much he put on, but judging by the time he posted I’ll assume he’d spent the evening of libation in the Lindley Taps or Manor House

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  8. Up early to go to the pub to watch Chelsea.

    Nap is RIGGS in the 14:25 at Haydock Park.

    I’m certainly not going to do any after timing on Marion’s Boy at Lingfield, just because my Mother’s name was Marion.

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  9. Barichelo has a good chance now that favourite is out of the 12.10 – ive a few shares in it with firends and it made a big step forward last run. Not mu nap but worth an interest

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    1. Impressive – i was toying with that as Nap this morning but was scared of favourite – with that out race it totally changed things. More to come from that one

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  10. One of the many reasons I failed to back Lord Glitters in Bahrain, is that on Thursday afternoon we went out and had a Devon Cream Tea, it was almost summery sitting outside (under cover), in the Garden Centre, and a bee came searching for honey on a flower next to us… this was clearly a sign!
    So today, I will be backing; Buzz, Bristol de Mai, Bass Rock, and Before Midnight – though I think I will only watch Bravemansgame.

    Another sign (they are appearing everywhere), was on Masterchef, where one of the chefs with Sri Lankan heritage made some great food, and later, flicking through channels, I came across “The Worlds’ Greatest Railway Journeys” – featuring Sri Lanka. Just last month I was looking at places to visit, and Sri Lanka was top of my list – they are opening up after the pandemic, but the public transport is/was still closed. If they start running the trains again, I will be going there early next year. (Unless other signs tell me otherwise!)
    P.S. Hope my simple coding worked.

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    1. Luke H I was in Sri Lanka last year pre pandemic for a wedding. It’s a Must do!
      The train from Ella through Kandy is unbelievable. You can stand at the nine arch bride also and watch the the trains go by drinking from a fresh coconut. It’s quite a spectacle.
      The people are very laid back and friendly and the food is amazing!
      We spent time in Unawatuna where the wedding was and ate our body weights in fresh seafood and cocktails.
      Galle fort area a must see also.
      Travel is very cheap and you can get a Tuk Tuk or car to take you about for a few quid if you or willing to haggle a bit. Or a few more quid if your not …
      It’s sad as The pandemic has hit the country very hard and has completely decimated the tourist trade as they closed their borders completely. As you said they are now opening up so hopefully can resume normal life.
      Good luck if you do go! Let me know I can pass on some ideas

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      1. Haggling is an odd thing – its not a skill you get to use much at home. Whether it be Aldi or Waitrose Supermarkets don’t do haggling and my requests to pay 50p less for a pint have led to my removal from the premises on several occasions. Note – not all bar staff have a sense of humour.

        Must try harder…

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      2. Good to know – thanks Steelman. I’m going to keep an eye on the situation. I’ll almost certainly go at some some point, just might not be as soon as I’d like.

        Like

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