Horsetalk Monday November 22nd 2021

Daily Naps – Gforce lands another nap with 10/3 Tommy’s Oscar – well done. And Rob J follows up his big priced nap from Friday with Run Wild Fred at 4/1 and points out that I missed another of his winning naps on the 7th – Faraway Boy at 13/2 – apologies, Rob, you’ll be thinking I’ve backed someone else to win this!

A reminder again that if your nap is a NR and you haven’t time to put a sub in, report it as a NR on the Winners Thread.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

22 comments

  1. Milton had two out yesterday and I napped the wrong…he once again has two out tomorrow…for consistency I shall be napping the wrong one again…. Sergeant 15:35 Ludlow is the Nap

    Like

    1. Alan,
      I have now had a bet on Sergeant in that Race as the only thing I have ever believed in is the law of averages. You knocked once. I knock twice.
      Someone else will collect on the third knock.

      Like

  2. The only listed Race out there is in the 13.50 at Kempton.
    It is ominous when WP.Mullins targets a Race across the water for a Mare who has already done her Black Type winning thing and seemingly has nothing to gain. Maybe there is something to gain for a Mare whose form isn’t that exciting in recent months.
    My nap is Dragon Bones in that Race as she is an upper and commer who may be meeting her direct rival half ways up the ladder.
    Dragon Bones 13.50 Kempton is my nap.

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  3. Ballinsker (Ludlow 1.25) is hugely well handicapped on hurdles form. He hasn’t impressed over fences yet and his mark has subsided as a result. But this horse was highly thought of when Mick Goff took him to Oldcastle PTP in 2019 and he duly obliged when well backed. Who did he beat? A certain Belfast Banter, that’s who. Not only BB but Harald Hardrad who was off the course after that until last week when he absolutely sauntered to win a bumper for Noel Meade. Yes, you say, but he has to turn round a 58 length beating by today’s favourite at Kempton last time with “only” a 16lb swing in the weights. True, but Brief Ambition was a well handicapped horse that day and he turned over a short-priced one of Gary Moore’s who couldn’t carry a winner’s penalty from a weak handicap chase at Lingfield. So is he still well handicapped with that 11lb hike? If Adam Wedge puts it up to the favourite he might test how far ahead of his mark he still is. Ballinsker needs 3m really and more give in the ground, but he has a chance today to get that maiden chase win.

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  4. Nice one Harry. I nearly picked that as you persuaded me it has a good chance and I’m a bit unenthused today. This may be because the horse I usually ask for advice on my morning outing was on the far side of his field so he just got a shouted greeting. He ignored me so I’ve probably been putting too much pressure on him.
    Nap Ayr 1515 Fearless

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  5. Was on Russell’s in the 13:00 at Ayr 1st and 3rd…got 18/1 on Spark of Madness last night…after a lean spell of tipping her runners was reluctant to nap….that’s the way it goes with Lucinda..

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  6. Lovely to see Dr Sanderson back to his best today. It has taken six runs to lose 23lb of that horrid extra weight. Shall we call it the doctor’s lockdown paunch? Anyway, he looked very much “on it” today, didn’t he. Great to see.

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    1. When asked by Ayr stewards to explain the horse’s improved form, the trainer reported that “the gelding benefited from the drop in grade”. The explanation was “noted”. Er, hold on – when he ran in a Grade 4 two runs ago he was beaten 16 lengths and “lost position 3 out, ridden and outpaced before 2 out, kept on when no chance towards finish”. Since May, while he has been “finding his correct grade”, he has run against 43 horses and beaten just 8 of them, coming stone last in three of those six races and being beaten some enormous distances. He has been friendless in the market, even in the Sedgefield race where he was in the comfortable lower grade race that Haslam had been searching so diligently for. Today – apologies to you all for bothering you with all these facts – he was backed from 14s in to 6/1.

      Paul Nicholls won four races with Dr Sanderson, three novice hurdles and a novice handicap chase, taking him to a high of 139. Today his great odyssey through the lower reaches of the handicap system finally ended when he landed on a mark of 112.

      Go figure, as our American friends like to say.

      Like

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