Horsetalk Thursday November 25th 2021

Rob J and Gforce battle it out in the naps table; Rob with Oscar Robertson on Wednesday at 6/5, and Gforce with 5/6 chance Skycutter. The blog’s nap Merry Mistress won at 3/1.

I see old Nicky H is up to his tricks again with Shishkin, now a NR in the Tingle Creek on Dec 4th. He just hates to risk the unbeaten ones.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

19 comments

  1. Despite my observed collapse in the stable’s form, a derisory 2 from 10 over the last week, I’ll
    Nap Ling 1345 Duke of Rockingham
    who I reckon could finish 7th and still have run quite well such are the runners from other stables. As its Olly’s sole runner I really just hope they turn up- that’s this horse and jockey not the opposition!
    I tossed a mental coin between this and Whiskey Express who I hope will be another signpost of stable resurgence, but the unsurity (1 from 11 past 14 days) is the point, isn’t it? I aint got a clue if Yogi B has been helping with this one, but for some reason I expect so! The Fry news bulletin says he’d like to see some rain for his horses so it is to be seen if the exciting Boothill turns out on Friday.

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  2. I think to say the stable form has “collapsed” is unduly pessimistic. Olly has had 9 wins in the last fortnight, and has had a winner and five seconds in his last seven runners. The Duke is a solid favourite on that basis. He’s another horse Olly trains for the Whateleys who have quickly become the leading owners in the yard. Olly’s gain is very much Philip Hobbs’s loss. I wonder what happened there?

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      1. It was a joke! Most stables would be delighted with a 20% strike rate. I made a similar comment when a horse failed to win after they’d had a 4 timer. Its one stable where if you back one of theirs, you know its ‘always trying’. Think that one would have won too if it had jumped a bit better. Needs a bit of practice!

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        1. OK, I never know when you’re joking, GForce1.

          So, it was another silver medal for the “ailing” Murphy team. He has plenty of useful novices this year – same as last year, but some of those disappointed. Even the good ones need racing experience and can run well without winning.

          I don’t care who they are, I don’t know any racehorse trainer in the country who is “always trying” (apart of course from Mark Johnston). Or rather, there’s a difference between always trying to win and always trying to do what’s best for the horse. Young Master Murphy has two great advantages: first, he has a dad who is expert at sourcing good young horses in Ireland, and second, he had a very good grounding at Gordon Elliott’s. And the biggest compliment he paid to his mentor was not setting up his training operation in Ireland.

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  3. Mister Allegro is interesting in the 2.25 Taunton. The 3yo has good juvenile form (against he likes of Sonning and Genuflex) and gets lumps of weight in this all-age handicap. I like the look of 17/2 in the without the fav market, or 6/1 without Guernesey and Drgiannini (both Hills). I assume Honeyball must reckon it’s worth the potential risk to his handicap mark if he beats some older handicappers.

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  4. Mr Parr looks like he is trying for at least an each way double today. The nap is the first leg, Lady Isabel Lingield 1.45pm.

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  5. Late to the party. Will have a quick stab at one which I’ve not had much time to look at.
    The throstles EW 17.35 wolves NAP

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