Horsetalk Friday November 26th 2021

Thursday’s results saw another winning nap for Rob J – his 11th of the month. Great work, Rob. Good to see Rakib back with a winner in Ceil De Neige 6/5. Alan’s EW nap Trevie Fountain was placed at 10/1 – nice one. And El Gran Senor landed a straight forecast paying 1.56 – Good work.

Oldies will recall this weekend as the Hennessy meeting. It’s good to see that over the years the quality in this famous race had pretty much held its own – a slight downward curve perhaps, but nothing like the drop other big races like The Rehearsal have suffered.

I usually do a Hennessy write up, but it might be a bit shorter than usual this time. I’ll see what today brings. One that has caught my eye and is too big at 25/1 is Annacotty, and with the front of the market looking tight and dry, he might just become a bit of a gamble. More later.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.

This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

23 comments

  1. Reading that Newbury Card today has made me vomitious but we all need to crack on regardless of projectile vomiting.
    4 Horses trading at less than 3/1 in a single Race in the 12.40 is possibly a new one on me and I thought I seen it all.i
    I would ask Clarkson to do a 50/50 and remove the two French soft ground Breds in the 12.40 but I still wouldn’decide and would phone a friend.
    My nap is later on the card at 15.00.
    There are a lot of Horses who may not be on the up at 15.00 at Newbury but so what?
    Mrs Milner is my nap in that race

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    1. One Jonbon (chewed not swallowed) every 35 minutes should reduce vomiting. Side effects may include a slightly reduced bank balance….

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  2. This from the Sporting Life gave a chuckle: “This maiden hurdle appears to have been shoehorned in so we can see the reappearance of Jonbon, Douvan’s full brother, who is going to win everything from the Supreme to the Eurovision Song Contest next year if missives from the yard are to be believed.”

    If the dead eight holds in the 1.15, I’ll be betting something EW against Jonbon.

    For the NAP I’ll try Polish EW 3.35N (Rob J may have already picked the winner).

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  3. My naps over the last few weeks are a cracking reminder to me not to gamble much money! Not that I need one. I’m temped to end BRELAN D’AS good run today by napping it in the last at Doncaster but its a 3 horse race and i anything can happen in those in my experience…Ive a list of horses tempted to bet today over fences but there are all a bit chancy in races where my tracker has thrown up a couple…

    I’ll look elsewhere then and head to chelmsford in the 6.15 and Beggarman for the nap.

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  4. I hope you can find the time to offer an analysis of the Hennessy. Those of us who remember will probably never forget the tour de force posting here in the forerunner of this blog on November 29th 2018 when you went through the runners and finally focussed on Sizing Tennesse, which won at 16-1.

    https://steeplechasing.net/2018/11/29/ladbrokes-trophy-chase-hennessy-preview-with-25-1-tip/

    It was a fabulous, deep analysis, and that is a very rare thing.

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      1. I guessed the Poster straight away and don’t worry as nobody sees the email.
        I think Playlord if he has time should do that post on the weekly Guardian column tomorrow.

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  5. I’d 16s antepost on P Park before the World Hurdle win, so I wonder why I don’t back him out of loyalty.
    Nap New 1500 Mrs Milner

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  6. Bugger ….still up on the bet….there is a Dragon in the 18:45 Chelms..Ruth Carr also has a runner…unusually only one today…is that a tip in itself..

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