Horsetalk Saturday November 27th 2021

Saturday Update – Ladbrokes Trophy

The sensible bet would be to lay Eklat De Rire in the Ladbrokes Trophy, but that is not sufficient challenge for a dyed in the wool punter when it comes to an iconic jumps race. The De Bromhead horse looks like he will go off fav at around 7/2, despite no big field experience over fences, not having what looks to be his favoured heavy ground and, crucially, being something of a dodgy jumper, whose slightly stiff back can cause him to use up a fair bit of effort trying to get over safely. He can be keen too, which won’t help energy conservation. As he tires, I suspect he’ll start dropping those hind legs into the birch.

His compatriot Ontheropes is a much, much more promising proposition who looks the part in his travelling style and his jumping. Smaller and more neatly built than EDR, he looks much more athletic too and a significantly easier ride. He really impressed me when second to Monkfish a year ago, and even more so when he won the Munster National last month. He has drifted to 13/2 as I write and he has to be the big bet EW to 7 places (Sky and Hills).

On Thursday I believed his stable companion Annacotty to be over priced at 25/1 and backed him accordingly. But he has gone the other way and 28s is now available. He improved last year for a step up in trip and I think there is more to come but cold logic says his stablemate is now better value.

I’d love to see Fiddlerontheroof run a big race for the TIzzards. He’s always been a very promising horse and perhaps suffered along with a few others from the dull season the yard went through last year. But he had a hard race when winning at Carlisle over 20f a month ago (runner up beaten since) and I suspect his stamina will not hold out at this trip.

I like Remastered, and in deeper ground would give him a fair chance, but I cannot see him beating Ontheropes today.

The EW value at the other end of the scale I’ve already touched on – Fortescue, the Henry Daly runner who’s comparatively unexposed. He’ll stay till doomsday, the downside being he can hit flat spots and if they go too fast early he might simply end up too far back to get there in time. But if he is within striking distance of the pack turning in, he has every chance of picking them off one by one up the straight to finish in the first third of the field. Back him each way to 7 places with Skybet at 40/1.

Good luck.


Daily Naps – catchup on Thursday sees Jamie with a 9/4 winning nap in Arion – nice one, Jamie.

Rakib follows up Thursday success with a cracking winning EW nap on Friday – 12/1 chance Muscika. Well done, Rakib.

And Stonor nailed a great winner in Starsky at 13/2 – fine work, Stonor.

As for Saturday, well, the form book looks the least of our worries with Storm Arwen on the prowl. I am holding off on my Ladbroke Gold Trophy analysis until the morning as there is rain, possibly snow, and perhaps most worrying, strong winds with gusts of up to 42mph – Force 8 on the Beaufort scale (Fresh Gale). The going will be key to a few here – All Eklat De Rire’s wins have come in deep ground (which is not to say he won’t handle faster). I’ve already backed Annacotty, but the softer the ground the less his chance of getting the trip, I feel. Soft or heavy would also make a difference to the likes of Remastered, whose prospects would increase the more the rain falls. One who will appreciate the ultimate stamina test is the young, unexposed Fortescue, and I’ll be backing him EW to 7 places at 40/1 with Skybet along with a win bet on Betfair. He’s a bonny looker with a relatively small trainer these days in Henry Daly whose horses are running well. Hugh Nugent claims 5 and knows the horse very well. I’ll back him whatever the ground; he might not be quite good enough to win it, but he has a strong chance, I think, to run on late up the straight and finish in the first third of the field to earn a payout.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

49 comments

  1. Black Mischief, to my eye, has been laid out for this 1.50 Newbury and at 18/1 is about 3 times the price he should be. He is my nap and I’ve had an EW double with him to 4 places and Fortescue at 50s to 6 places with Paddy Power.

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  2. I will do my old muckers Mr. Malarkey and Copperhead to be placed down to 6 places in the 15.00 at Newbury.
    For the purpose of the nap competition I will do Kitty’s Light in the same race. Win only.

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  3. A day of involuntary wind ops for the horsies and jockeys. Resilience rather than talent might be the order of the day but both will be handy. EdR was tipped earlier in the week at 6s antepost which was just as well now he’s been hammered down below 4s. Ew nap will be Cloudy Glen in the same race – nice tribute to the late TH if it sneaks a win.

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      1. Cheers, man. Maybe if I’d gone for the win but I’m sure Robj and Gforce are safe- to be fair I’m happy with mid-table respectability, and especially when the weather is like this I’d rather watch from home with races punctuated by another boil of the kettle than be at the track freezing my wotsits off (no offence, Betfair!) 🫖🫖🫖. Hopefully, it’s ok come the Christmas meeting at Kempton…

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        1. Impressive. Once in a lifetime stuff.
          I don’t think Robj and Gforce or myself will be sleeping easy tonight knowing another big winner from yourself can usurp us all.

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          1. A mehmas lincoln place in first race delmar and tabor calista in 9,14 just watching
            Vladamir cerin is my new guy to follow in delmar many ex irish going del.
            Many friends are not backing horses these days kind of BORING lull. Guess its covid effect.

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          2. Merci . Are you in the mix too, egs?! 😱 These truly are strange times…I think I need to pull a few of your straight forecast rabbits out of the proverbial…🎩

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  4. Cloth cap Nap (Newbury 15:00). I would normally go Ew as I’d expect to finish top 7 (with sky), but in the interests of the betting competition, I’ll go all out for the win.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Still can’t get really interested – but have been waiting for Remastered, tipped by Greg Wood I see, so he’ll do for me in the Hennesy – then again, no rain?

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    1. Having a goodish ante-post voucher about Remastered for the Welsh National I am not overjoyed to see him rerouted to Newbury. Still, David Pipe won’t be too bothered what I think.

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    1. Mickle skybet 5 places 11/2, surely thats an EW to nothing on Aye right? Given the rain there has been also!
      I hope your right with the Nap as I’m on it and recently that’s not a good sign !

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          1. Happy days Mickle. Had a decent EW bet on that, couldn’t see it out the 5 for sure. Brings me back in line with a few horrid selections the last few weeks! Onto the rest of the day now with hope

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  6. Up at Newcastle. I imagine it’s a day for Hardy souls. Those who have been there + done it.
    Takingrisks in the 2.05 ew 20/1.

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  7. First Saturday off in a few weeks! A few bets to be had and some nice races! Newcastle looks to have been hit with the worst of the storm and rain. A few I’m Playing to pennies. Big price going for the last gasp at the Nap comp as I’m far behind now.

    Court master EW 1.15 Newbury
    Aye right EW 2.05 Newcastle
    Annamix EW 3.00 newbury NAP
    King Dargent EW 3.35 newbury NB

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  8. NAP Eklat de Rire 3.0N
    Most likely winner to me (pretty obvious as it’s fav!), but I’ll do at least one more EW.
    We’ve got 55mph winds here and disruption on main road (lorry breakdown) – I’d expect a few horses just won’t make it to the races today…

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  9. Great to see the Irish horses coming over – is H de B going to be champion trainer over here?- when poor old Aye Right is snowed in. We’ve a few inches here and it is determinedly not thawing. Good excuse to sit around and enjoy the racing as most local footie will be off. Backed loads and had to restrict myself to 3 in the Hennessey. I’ll get the nap over with early
    Nap Newbury 1210 Elle Est Belle
    who was beaten 4l by Nina last time, and she is now 5lbs better in! I just thought EEB was much better than that performance and don’t think Skeltons would have another go if they didn’t think so too. ………… picks up box of tissues to remove egg on face.

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  10. You have to conclude that the best bet today is 13/8 Honeysuckle for the Champion Hurdle. There is nothing on the horizon that looks a threat to her. Even the 8/1 second favourite is the now retired Sharjah! (Isn’t it time the bookies took that price down?) If Lady H wins as expected tomorrow she is going to be odds-on tomorrow night.

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    1. Paddy offer 15/8 she wins tomorrow and the Champion Hurdle, though the 40s about Monmiral winning today and the CH appealed more, purely on the basis that if he can beat Epatante under these ridiculous gender allowance conditions he will be much shorter for March.

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  11. Paul Nicholls seems to be in two minds about training Monmiral for the Champion Hurdle and Aintree, saying next year will be his time and that will be over fences. I think Epatante might run him close today if reports about her wellbeing are correct, but after last season you would have to be sceptical. There is such a dearth of top quality two mile hurdlers you would think it would be tempting to have a go for the Blue Riband with Monmiral. Today will tell us more, but Monmiral looks like a 2m4f horse at his stage. I see Honeysuckle having a Hurricane Fly type reign as champion – even without the mare’s allowance she still looks the best around. Shame that it is hard to be sure how good she is when the allowance queers the pitch.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I know it’s a boringly predictable response when anyone puts up a shortie ante-post for Cheltenham but what are the chances of an injury preventing this? Seriously does anybody know? What are the actual stats on injuries etc to NH horses? Do better horses by their very nature stay sounder? Dilton? I really don’t think I’d have the guts to go in ante-post on a NH horse at 13/8. Fortune favours the brave, if you’ve waded in all the best Harry.

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      1. ps ignoring my ramblings about injuries, what price would a fit and fancied Honeysuckle go off at Cheltenham? Given the course market and the aversion of most punters to back odds on I’d be thinking evens at least, possibly 5/4 with some chancers going 6/4. Just my view of course and if Honeysuckle canters in at 1/2 then I’ll be keeping a low profile.

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      2. A days a long time in a horses life ,anything that can go wrong always seems to happen to the good ones because they put it all in .

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    1. Absolutely, been some good picks today and good races. Joe’s analysis on the big one was good too – unfortunately I backed Fortesque at 50/1 6 places rather than 40/1 7 places, and main bet was Eklat de Rire who did pretty much what Joe said!
      Aftertiming – I would have backed Not So Sleepy at 18s but he was much shorter when I placed my bets on Betfair and went with Silver Streak.
      Cloth Cap in EW double with another at 16s got me over 90% of my money back today though 🙂

      Fine tipping gentleman.

      Liked by 1 person

  12. Brilliant racing at Newcastle especially the Rehearsal and the Fighting Fifth. The feature chase was a real war through the blizzard, with Aye Right winning it through sheer guts and stamina to add to a classy round of accurate jumping – bar the last where he got into the bottom. I’m surprised he could see the fence at all through the white out, never mind see a stride! That allowed Good Boy Bobby a hint of a chance, but Aye Right is as tough as they come and saw it out. Great for Harriet Graham to win a big race with this horse. I thought she might be snowed in this morning as her pla xe is up by Carter Bar. Ann Hamilton was not so fortunate at Capheaton and had to pull Nuts Well, a similar stamp of an old fashioned three mile chaser to the winner. The race took me back to The Thinker’s Gold Cup, another triumph for the north with arctic conditions the backdrop to a gruelling race.

    Then the Fighting Fifth was a desperate three-way finish with the returning Epatante travelling supremely well and just getting up to dead heat with the enigmatic Not So Sleepy, who looked rusty at the hurdles but still has that flat-race quality about him. He is pretty good when he can be bothered – today he received a peach of a ride from Johnny Burke who kidded him along with the odd slap down the shoulder while Aidan Coleman was giving the mare some dreadful overarm hits even though she was not shirking the fight (I’m not convinced he was within the permitted guidelines there as the hits were very close together). Mind you, Daryl Jacob was pretty hard on Sceau Royal too. JJ came out of the race with a Mention in Despatches in my book even though he had to share the spoils.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Two great races and I was there freezing the proverbials off. It was great to see AYE RIGHT win after so many close calls last years and congratulations to those who napped the horse today in this blog.

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