Saturday Update – Ladbrokes Trophy
The sensible bet would be to lay Eklat De Rire in the Ladbrokes Trophy, but that is not sufficient challenge for a dyed in the wool punter when it comes to an iconic jumps race. The De Bromhead horse looks like he will go off fav at around 7/2, despite no big field experience over fences, not having what looks to be his favoured heavy ground and, crucially, being something of a dodgy jumper, whose slightly stiff back can cause him to use up a fair bit of effort trying to get over safely. He can be keen too, which won’t help energy conservation. As he tires, I suspect he’ll start dropping those hind legs into the birch.
His compatriot Ontheropes is a much, much more promising proposition who looks the part in his travelling style and his jumping. Smaller and more neatly built than EDR, he looks much more athletic too and a significantly easier ride. He really impressed me when second to Monkfish a year ago, and even more so when he won the Munster National last month. He has drifted to 13/2 as I write and he has to be the big bet EW to 7 places (Sky and Hills).
On Thursday I believed his stable companion Annacotty to be over priced at 25/1 and backed him accordingly. But he has gone the other way and 28s is now available. He improved last year for a step up in trip and I think there is more to come but cold logic says his stablemate is now better value.
I’d love to see Fiddlerontheroof run a big race for the TIzzards. He’s always been a very promising horse and perhaps suffered along with a few others from the dull season the yard went through last year. But he had a hard race when winning at Carlisle over 20f a month ago (runner up beaten since) and I suspect his stamina will not hold out at this trip.
I like Remastered, and in deeper ground would give him a fair chance, but I cannot see him beating Ontheropes today.
The EW value at the other end of the scale I’ve already touched on – Fortescue, the Henry Daly runner who’s comparatively unexposed. He’ll stay till doomsday, the downside being he can hit flat spots and if they go too fast early he might simply end up too far back to get there in time. But if he is within striking distance of the pack turning in, he has every chance of picking them off one by one up the straight to finish in the first third of the field. Back him each way to 7 places with Skybet at 40/1.
Daily Naps – catchup on Thursday sees Jamie with a 9/4 winning nap in Arion – nice one, Jamie.
Rakib follows up Thursday success with a cracking winning EW nap on Friday – 12/1 chance Muscika. Well done, Rakib.
And Stonor nailed a great winner in Starsky at 13/2 – fine work, Stonor.
As for Saturday, well, the form book looks the least of our worries with Storm Arwen on the prowl. I am holding off on my Ladbroke Gold Trophy analysis until the morning as there is rain, possibly snow, and perhaps most worrying, strong winds with gusts of up to 42mph – Force 8 on the Beaufort scale (Fresh Gale). The going will be key to a few here – All Eklat De Rire’s wins have come in deep ground (which is not to say he won’t handle faster). I’ve already backed Annacotty, but the softer the ground the less his chance of getting the trip, I feel. Soft or heavy would also make a difference to the likes of Remastered, whose prospects would increase the more the rain falls. One who will appreciate the ultimate stamina test is the young, unexposed Fortescue, and I’ll be backing him EW to 7 places at 40/1 with Skybet along with a win bet on Betfair. He’s a bonny looker with a relatively small trainer these days in Henry Daly whose horses are running well. Hugh Nugent claims 5 and knows the horse very well. I’ll back him whatever the ground; he might not be quite good enough to win it, but he has a strong chance, I think, to run on late up the straight and finish in the first third of the field to earn a payout.
Betfair Naps Table
Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.
Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.
For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.
You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.
If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.
Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.
All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.
This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.
We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.
You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.
The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.
Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.
So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.