Horsetalk Wednesday December 1st 2021

Edit: Dec 1st:

David made the point in the comments that I have calculated the final figures below based on returns – and that is wrong. It should be on profit, in which case Rob J is the winner based returns of 428.34, minus 300 in total stakes = 128.34. Gforce’s returns 412.22 – 300 = 112.22. My deep apologies to Rob and to Gforce – I lapsed straight into my old bet settling phase and just rattled through the settlement on prices. I should have taken much more time to consider. Sorry.

I haven’t heard from you yet, Gforce, but I will happily pay for 2 badges for Sandown for you if you want to go. Rob, I’ll email you shortly.

November Naps Table: – honourable mention to yesterday’s winning Napsters – Mickle with Maywake at 5/4, and Jonathan Dawe with SCHIAPARANNIE at 11/4: well done, gents.

On to the winner of the first naps table, which was a battle royal between Gforce and Rob J, both of whom deserve a massive round of applause. In the end GForce won it by under £4 and wins the Betfair badges. Gforce had 12 winners for a profit after deduction of losing stake (£10 for each losing day) of £232.22. I know quite a few who’d settle for a tenth of that return on investment – fabulous tipping. I’ll drop you an email, Gforce to organise the Raceday tickets – if the Tingle Creek doesn’t suit, I’m sure Barry Orr will arrange an alternative.

Rob J, a hell of a fight; you had 10 winners, suffering a deduction of 20 days losing stakes to Gforce’s 20.

Kudos too to two late joiners in the comp – Rakib, and Mully, both of whom tipped Cloudy Glen each way. Rakib had a profit of £151.58, and Mully a slight loss due to all the deductions from joining only in the last week.

Big thanks once more to Barry and Betfair for sponsoring this, and, hopefully future competitions. —-Edit to add, please drop a line below in the comments if you think I have miscalculated anything: I have sheets for all competitors.

A new December competition starts today; just post your selections below this daily blog post as you have been doing.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

40 comments

  1. Well done gforce, I think I actually had a couple of non runners that I didn’t note on the tipping page,which may have swung it in my favour, but I shall respectfully bow out and concede to your excellent tipping this month. Enjoy the tickets, you deserve it!

    Like

  2. Well done the top tipsters.

    The profit is a bit less isn’t it as the stake money is being counted in those tallys as profit.

    In my head the deductions should be 300 in terms of calculating profit. 10 quid a day.

    That may make Rob J the winner on my calcs.

    Like

  3. Well done to both.
    I thought Rakib with the Hennessy winner, Alan and David were in with a shout but Gforce and Robj were powering away all November.
    I know there is now a turf track at Haydock to bet upon but it looks really snaggy particularly the 2 elite races.
    I am going back to the Polytrack now that I have smelt the cordite. Dundalk. I am tempted by Old Tom Higgins in the 16.10 but my nap has to be Chargo in the 14.40.
    I have no idea why an unraced Highland Reel is running over 7F on this surface in December but 6/1 indicates JP Murtagh may have more intimate knowledge than me who kicks off my December nap.

    Like

    1. To be fair I was only a few lengths off bridging the gap with Magic Tricks and today’s nap. There are probably hard luck stories on both sides though.

      Like

  4. The mighty Gforce wins the day, or month rather. Well played! 🌞Commiserations to the rest of us.🌚 It might turn out to be the most ‘honest’ win because I think we’ll all get better at ‘gaming the system’ a bit more and including short price favourites when needed to keep things ticking over.

    Like

  5. On to Dec then, not a great looking card, so I will nap another brown bear (haydock 13:15), despite the form of the McCain yard.

    Like

  6. It’s the beginning of the month and a new naps table, plenty of time to catch up if this doesn’t go in or it’s gonna be a helluva start to the month..Nap is Sutton Manor 12:40 Hay 12/1.

    Like

  7. Super work by the winner, the runner-up, and the honourable mentions. And thanks to Joe for running the thing.
    I’ve barely had time to glance at a card the last couple of weeks (and I’ve been in the wrong time zone for UK racing), not that it would have made much difference to the competition. But to inaugurate a new month, I will wade in (sort of) with Mcgowan’s Pass EW in the 15:20 at Haydock.

    Like

  8. Qoya EW NAP 3.0 Lingfield.
    Congrats to GForce and kudos to RobJ. Maybe a big-priced winner in the Welsh National might help take it at the end of the month… Good luck folks.

    Like

  9. It’s a new month so here we go.

    Seymour Sox in the first at Haydock as that’s the only race I will see today!!

    Well done to GForce et al for November.

    Like

  10. Leo has selected Knowheretorun at Kempton in the 18:30. I’m hoping the horsebox driver does that job and that the similarly named KNOWWHENTORUN will not just line up for the correct race on time, but also win after 11 failed attempts.

    Congratulations to Gforce and Robj on their excellent tips and for Joe for keeping track and organization. Note to self back their naps.

    I look forward to the results of the Auldchief Booby Prize for November.

    Like

    1. Jonathan,
      I know your American Computer refuses to acknowledge the spelling of Organisation no matter what keyboard key you press. I doubt living in Florida for no matter how long can have knocked the West London boy out of you.
      The results of the Auldchiel Booby Prize did not require much organisation; I write the winning naps on the back of a matchbox but sometimes I lose the matchbox.
      It was like transfer deadline day yesterday with David scoring 65 points for Ulysses who showed the enthusiasm you expect for a Stallion brought out from the breeding sheds (even SMS couldn’t have reinvigorated him) and myself with 59 points on If You Can Dream (a Horse who only dreams of being out in the Paddock stretching his legs in a brief frolic from time to time).
      I have decided to erase the points awarded for posts admitting watching Strictly Come Dancing and false accusations to other posters of scoring Booby points as I feel adequate contrition was shown.
      This leaves Luke as the winner on 113 points. Remarkably the two winners were on consecutive days and his bid for the hat trick did not do badly when coming I think 14th in an 18 runner field.
      So, the 3rd Auldchiel Booby Prize goes to Luke. Welcome to the club Luke and I am getting the Green Jacket ready.

      Like

    2. The horsebox driver shouldn’t have any problems getting our selection to the track: He’s in stall 10, so he’s practically out in the car park anyway.

      Like

  11. Congratulations both rob and gforce, I followed a few of both of your winning tips since the blog opened so thanks as well.

    My nap is yorkindness in the 3 at lingfield e.w. I’m more trying my luck with these than anything else. Thanks for allowing me to take part.

    Like

  12. Hi All, many thanks for all the kind words esp Rob, more than magnanimous in defeat after putting up such strong competition. I hope more are encouraged to join in and a big thanks to Joe for organising it.
    Apologies for the late post and I’ve missed my intended nap which romped home 3rd so I’ll take a stab at
    Nap 1520 Haydock Enemy Coast Ahead
    not picked on form just that the trainer/jockey/owners seem to be having such a splendid time right now!

    Like

  13. Is having your initials on your racing colours like having special car number plates – or is it a whole lot more vulgar than that?

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.