Horsetalk Friday December 3rd 2021

Naps Table Update – Mickle took up on Wednesday where he left off and nailed a winning nap for day one of the December competition in Macho Mover at 9/2 – nice work, Mickle. On Thursday David and Luke H had winners with Tease and Sieze 6/5 and Jony Max 13/8 – well done, gents.

Reflecting on the settlement of last month’s winner has been interesting. Within the rules published each day on this main blog post, profit was to be the decisive factor, and I think in the end it was settled correctly. But, is it the best way to do it, given that when it is based on returns you get a different answer? The crux is, do we treat every bet as the stake being lost, when, in effect, it is not lost if your selection wins?

Also, how should NRs be treated? In effect, in November, all were treated as losers because nobody posted that they’d had a NR. The idea was that you post on the Winners Thread and are credited with your daily stake. But does this clash with the returns V profits model?

Your thoughts would be much welcomed so we can rewrite the rules if necessary for December.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

25 comments

  1. I have a cobwebbed book somewhere where it is clearly stated that there is not really such a thing as any organised Sport anywhere in the Western World that did not arise in Britain.
    Baseball is the obvious one as the original rules were designed in England. But also Ice Hockey and Aussie Rules.
    Why?
    Victorian and Edwardian Gentleman in these Islands liked to wager in a way that new settlers didn’t and there had to be a clear Rule Book for betting on those Sports. Hence, American Football is British.
    The rules of this naps competition will never effect me as I won’t trouble the judges but I think the rules should just be set by Joe as he sees it and that is the code of entry. I can’t say I have ever lost much money based on the code of entry but what I do to myself when I cross the threshold.
    As I am doing now.
    One True King is the top weight in the 15.00 at Sandown but can win that with another pound in hand and is my nap.

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  2. The method of settling seems fine to me, profit is the measure on which most of us would judge a tipster. I think people should note when they have NRs so they don’t lose a mythical tenner on those days but there’s already scope for that in the current advice.

    I think I was literally a couple of quid in profit last month but that’s my criteria of success! There will always be days when you’ve literally 5 mins to pick a nap – others you can have a proper look. Today my tracker has pooped up a few of interest and im deciding between them in a post booster/flu jab malaise today. Result to follow….

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  3. Road Warrior EW nap at Sedgefield 2.50 Won twice here in spring before going up in class and off to Wetherby where hasn’t done so well. Back to class 4 and still top weight but looks over priced at 10 to 1 or so,

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  4. There seem to be an awful lot of decent horses out today at longish odds. At least they look longish to me. Probably I am missing things. Anyway, I’ll have a bit of Cut The Mustard EW in the 14:40 at Exeter. Not that long ago a Mullins winner, and has generally run in Class 1 and 2 races; surely dropping back to 3 gives a reasonable chance of a place.

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  5. Django Django 3.15 Exeter is the nap,well done yesterdays winners.You can settle the naps any that suits you Joe as you are putting the work in as far as I am concerned.Thanks for your work.

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  6. Robs got in first with Boothill, so in the spirit of competition
    Nap Exeter 1440 Gunsight Ridge
    Like the general consenus I’m happy to go with whatever Joe decides esp as he’s doing all the work. My tuppence is to ask whether anyone would be happy if your bookie kept your stake from a winner or non-runner?
    Cracking novice hurdle at Sandown, rare in that all the runners won their previous race and while I fancy the fav all the others are decent prices esp Fair Frontieres. I’ll have a small wager because I can’t resist but I aint made my mind up yet. Who is trying to find out if they have a decent animal as opposed to who thinks theirs might win?

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    1. With respect to winners, the current way of calculation recognizes that you had a stake on in the first place which the first method didn’t.

      10 quid on at 2-1 wins every day for 30 days. Great 30 quid a day , 900 quid result

      but those 10 quid stakes came from somewhere, so 30 times 10 gets subtracted to leave a 600 quid profit.

      That seems correct to me and certainly NRs should see no 10 quid state reduction.

      I don’t mind what Joes decides – longest name tipped in the month would be fine 🙂

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      1. ‘no 10 quid state reduction’ sounds like something we might see after Boris has his blessèd Christmas party. The poor lad deserves his fun so I don’t begrudge him it. Much as I do not begrudge bookies holding on to my stakes or winnings for whatever reason they can dream up. What you said about not always having time (or inclination in my case) to study the form to provide a nap is very valid though – I wonder if next year at some point we’ll decide to form teams -a team robj and a team gforce perhaps! – to counter that and keep the standard of competition high.

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  7. 2.15S Mister Whitaker NAP – drifting in the betting, but seems to have enjoyed the switch to McCain and going back to hurdling.
    As far as the tipping comp goes, as others have said – do it as you see fit Joe. You can’t be expected to keep track of NRs, so if they aren’t posted on winners thread they are a loser. But it’s all good fun and happy whatever…

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  8. Mark Johnston having a pop at Chris in the latest edition of Kingsley Klarion. His beef with Chris is regarding the Irish ‘unspecified illegal drugs at an unlicensed yard’. – Chris.

    MJ is “saddened that highly respected journalists such as CC pour fuel on simmering embers and turn them into a forest fire. Who said they were ‘illegal drugs’ Chris ?” – MJ

    He also calls out Jim B as well for making accusations, but providing no evidence. It is this lack of proof that has saddened MJ as it has led to unsubstantiated rumour in the media of ‘illicit doping’ and ‘organised doping ring’ in Ireland.

    He finishes by saying he has been on the end of these type of jibes in the past, “he’s a vet so he must be giving them something.” He says that JB should know better, after all he is a successful trainer who doesn’t resort to cheating so why can’t he accept that other trainers can be successful too.

    I’d be interested to hear from egs regarding what the current feeling in Ireland is about all this, especially in racing circles.

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