Horsetalk Monday December 6th 2021

Naps Update: a fine Sunday’s racing saw three successful Napsters: Mickle, with 13/8 winner Kavanagh’s Cross, David with Wor Verge at 9/4, and DN with the brave Allaho at 7/2 – well done, gents.

Huntingdon: we’d spent a long time believing First Flow wanted deep ground, when it was actually a stamina test he needed. Could be an interesting season for him now, especially if they can get his jumping together.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

36 comments

  1. I understand that Kim Bailey was of the opinion that First Flow needed further, while David Bass thought he would not get it. Well, that’s settled then.

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    1. I missed out the “S” apologies for that. Looks like the rest of the field missed an half fit ALLAHO. The horse will bury any who oppose it.

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  2. Not the most satisfactory John Durkan again – fences omitted down the back due to the sun probably helped Allaho (in those lesser spotted second Cheveley Park silks) because he’d lost ground shifting out to the left a lot during the race, Asterion always looks an accident waiting to happen and duly obliged with the race at his mercy seemingly. Envoi doesn’t seem to have his old racing resolve sadly and wasn’t remotely in contention when they got into the straight. Disappointing from the Fakir too. That Allaho was still able to win with a bit in hand despite bungling the last shows it wasn’t a great race. Biggest plus side of yesterday was the belated return of many of the Mullins stars – Ferny Hollow returned promisingly enough, Energumene did nothing to suggest he won’t be a serious Champion Chase contender, and Concertista will be hard to beat in mares chases though whether I want to back her at the likely short odds each time is a moot point – still smarting at her being nabbed by Black Tears
    last Cheltenham 😭.
    Anyhoo . Monday’s nap: Wakool 2.15 Muss.

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  3. It seems that Scottish place names have been successful over the last few days. We’ve had Bothwell Bridge, Lossiemouth and, today, Restandbethankful – and some of us are aware that the Restandbethankful, although beatiful, is bloody difficult to pass – so tomorrow’s nap has to be Overhaugh Street (which, I believe is in Hawick) in the 12.30 at Ludlow. For why? Well, I haven’t a bloody clue doing it any other way.

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    1. I had assumed Roscommon was running today and I am delighted it isn’t running today so I need to look abroad.
      My nap is Overhaugh Street as recommended above by Auldchiel. With all the Scientific certainty we love.
      12.30 at Ludlow.

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      1. I see dispute with the syndicate involved with kemboy on newspaper. They had 28 horses in the syndicate..a lot of money involved…

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  4. I got 6 to 1 last night on On the platform in the Ludlow 1.00 – now at 3s so that can be the nap, Miranda should win the 1.30 there for Nichols too…

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  5. SWITCH HITTER, Ludlow 14.00, 11/4 is the nap and ridden by everyone’s darling. I can’t see why COLLINGHAM is so big against SKYCUTTER in the 12.45 at Musselburgh. However, Mickle may well be right, as he normally is.

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    1. Odd race DN. Was iffy about napping Skycutter because of price (cue Value debate) and would normally happily look for ew value against short priced fav but had decided was going to follow Skycutter until beaten/limit reached – still a bit of an unknown after race – at one point Skycutter looked like winning by a couple of furlongs, not so at end. Tired? Lack of concentration? Doesn’t really get trip and will be found out in better race? We’ll see. Good luck DN.

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      1. I think it may be a lack of concentration after having such a long lead and almost switching off. I would have liked to have seen COLLINGHAM put SKYCUTTER under a bit of pressure by jumping alongside. Brian Hughes, who I have a lot of respect for, decided not to go with the leader and he was almost right.
        Good luck also to your good self.

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  6. After the unexpected demise of yesterday’s sure thing
    Nap 1330 Ludlow Puffin Bay
    who was set up for a decent ew but as one has frustratingly come out the field is down to 7 so it’ll be a fun bet on the nose

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  7. Hope it’s ok to post here but just voted for Rachael Blackmore as the Beeb’s World Sport Personality – though it’s hard to see the Irish as ‘foreign’ -or ‘international’ rather- these days now we see so much of their racing! https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132
    Seeing the other contenders not sure that’s much for her to worry about, definitely can’t believe anyone would go for Max Verstappen especially after the numerous dangerous shenanigans in yesterday’s rather-too-thrilling race in Jeddah -he’s really getting beyond the pale. 🤒 Things are becoming reminiscent of Damon Hill’s first attempt to emulate his illustrious father when Schumacher took him out deliberately at Adelaide in ’94 -I remember staying up in the wee hours to watch that race and that was seriously gutting. Luckily, LH has a fair few titles in the bag already if the worst comes to the worst next Sunday and Mad Max goes for a total Senna-esque wipeout…

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    1. Raducanu was about 1/20 and I thought about a bet on Lewis at 20/1 last week, but he’s only 9/1 now on Betfair Sportsbook – my small stakes not really worth a bet at 11.5 on exchange to then lay if he wins world championship. Rachel at 1/2 on Sportsbook and nothing available on exchange!
      I’m completely with you on Verstappen – even on highlights there seemed to be 3 times he went beyond fair racing limits. Though it was quite ironic, that in the end he gave up the lead, when possibly he didn’t have to (though time penalty should have stopped him winning).

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      1. Yes, he outwitted himself in the last instance but his tyres were getting shot and there was the looming penalty so it didn’t really matter much at that stage. It was just a miracle that Hamilton was able to continue and drive fastest laps with the damage to the front after that horrible ‘brake test’ – what’s the horse racing equivalent of that, losing an iron perhaps or the whip flying off?!

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  8. I’d like to think it will between Blackmore and Thompson-Herah (a more than fair claim to being the fastest woman of all time because Flo-Jo was ai it).

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