Horsetalk Thursday December 9th 2021

Sterling Wednesday for four tipsters: . Jakebuckfast Grand Turino 5/2: Luke H without Conviction 5/1: David Don Herbager 3/1, and Rakib Shoot To Kill 11/2. Great stuff, gents, well done.


New Site

Many thanks for the kind offers of funding for the proposed new site. Perhaps we should also take the time to decide collectively what you want that site to be like. We could make membership by invitation only, which would ease a number of the site rules in place here and allow people to discuss matters much more freely than on an open-to-public site. It would effectively be a private club.

Please let me know your thoughts on that.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

34 comments

  1. My 2c,

    Would happily chuck in a few € if it helps! I rarely put one up (wish I had put Santa Florentina up ew this eve), but read every day, and there are some jolly good eggs on here.

    Closed groups tend to keep balloons away and free from those who annoy!

    That said, there is very little if any ‘attrition’ between contributors here the now.

    Be nice to have a more ‘traditional’ forum with sections USA racing, Irish, French etc. But that has its downsides as info gets spread around and you often miss stuff.

    I’m a fan of what OLBG do, not sure if that’s controversial or not, but there are amongst the muppets a few excellent heads on there.

    All the best Joe, and excellent work in creating and maintaining this blog 👍👍👍👍

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    1. Thanks Craig. I tried OLBG a few years ago and after publishing a post there which I later published elsewhere I got a stern note from an admin at OLBG saying it wasn’t allowed. You can imagine my reaction to someone claiming copyright of my work to further their business! Anyway, never went back.

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  2. I know Guily Billy is no price in the 12.35 at Tramore but will put it in a double with Shes Some Doll in the 14.45 as my nap.

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  3. High Counsel 3.00 Warwick for a big priced nap,well done yesterdays winners.I will donate to the new site Joe,I do not have a strong view on if the new site should be open or closed.

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  4. I put up Leopolds Rock a month or so ago, when he managed fourth at Sedgefield. Wise heads suggested I’d gone a race too early. So here he is again, heading the market in the 12:40 at Newcastle. I feel I now must follow up and nap him.

    RE closed/open: a risk with a closed shop is that the membership eventually dwindles to nothing (people do bow out for one reason or another). But then it’s not clear where the new membership would come from even if the forum were open—it’s not like the Guardian is going to allow Joe to advertise BTL (or will they?). So perhaps closed and invitation only would be best. In the end I think the right answer is: whatever is less work for Joe (moderation vs keeping up with membership).

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    1. The wise Cornsay hath spoken! Didn’t seem like there’s a good, easy solution re paying – maybe we should see what the ad-filled version is like first and then if it’s intolerable go to the ad-free.
      That 12.40 race looks tough btw but the money being down must be a good sign for a Kirby horse – so many with similar profiles though. Wheelbahri’s name amuses me and is attracting support -a very powerful combo.

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          1. The odd thing is I’m actually having one of the most sustained successful betting spells of my life the last couple of weeks—backing three or four most days and finding at least a couple of winners most days (all tiny stakes but it’s nice all the same). But reliably the one I put up here is the one that doesn’t win that day. Of course I am very reluctant to name any others in case the same thing happens to them.

            Liked by 1 person

  5. Lime drop in the Taunton 1.35 should really be the nap. Reminds me of the great Bob Hope movie where he plays the Lemon Drop Kid who sells fake tips at the local racetrack. Rob has already took that so. I’ll nap Our Jet in the 12.50 for the Skeltons.

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  6. re open or closed forum . i don’t mind it being open – you can always get new blood in that way, GForce for example joined in last month and has had some cracking input . There’s nothing i’d post behind closed doors i wouldn’t put here..

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I agree, David, it must be open. How, if not open, would it be possible to attract fresh and innovatory thinkers to put the oldsters on their mettle? I’d be loath to put walls up. The reason that civilization(s) developed quicky was the result of the close proximity of inventive and creative people. Small, isolated communities tend to see very little change, no doubt a good thing in some ways, but also potentially a negative. Chairman Mao (!) said in 1957, ” “Letting a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend is the policy for promoting progress in the arts and the sciences and a flourishing socialist culture in our land.” This later got modified into “Let a thousand flowers bloom” which was used a title for Anselm Kiefer’s artwork , “Let A Thousand Flowers Blossom” (Tate Modern 2000). Kiefer (IMHO) wanted to show the brutality of totalitarian regimes. A problem which we are still confronting, perhaps not so far away, either. We cannot put up walls to escape from our common human identity. The future of our species depends on it.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. Ship of the Fen -3.00 Warwick
    I’m off to Cheltenham tomorrow. I had a glance at the decs earlier in the week & the card looked a bit sub-standard for the venue. However, tomorrow’s first race looks a belter. Skelton’s Hartour d’Oudairies received quotes for the supreme after his facile Warwick victory & Tizzard’s Jpr One was similarly impressive when beating Lustrell Lad & I Am Maximus at Exeter.

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    1. I was not aware that my contributions would not be welcomed. I’m sure your very happy with Bryony’s stonking result today.

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  8. Fancy a few today, which the way its going could be expensive. Looking for a sign I bought a couple of limes this morning and Limetree Boy and Lime Drop, first choice, have already been picked. Pay the Piper was next but the price is prohibitive unless you believe in the interest rate theory/comparison. Why would anyone sane back against Skeltons at Warwick?
    1325 War Italian Spirit

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    1. You managed to not nap two winners there – i only ,missed out Lime Drop. I’m sure you bet them tho, short as Psay the Piper was.

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  9. I too would be wary of making it subscription only; as mentioned above – how would any new blood be attracted? It might lead to a slow decline if people slowly lost interest and new ones weren’t added. I’d be happy to make a contribution to the yearly costs, but if Joe decided to go subsription only, I’d sign up too.

    Liked by 1 person

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