Horsetalk Saturday December 11th 2021

Three cracking naps today: mine at 9/1 – Kansas City Chief: Jakebuckfast at 7/1 – Commodore, and Lively Citizen, Robicheaux7 at 7/1. Nice work, fellas.


Frost-Dunne

Thanks for all your thoughts and opinions. I need not say each is as valuable as the next, but we need not agree with the content. As I said in response to Dilton, I suspect it’s been an avoidable car crash that has been blundered into rather than planned. My conclusion: For quite some time, and away from this case, many/most of her colleagues dislike Bryony at various levels. Even thoroughly decent people can justify looking the other way when it comes to someone they can’t stand. This is the fallout.


Naps Table – Singles or Other?

I need a vote on this – in the first line of your comment, just put Singles if you want naps to be restricted to single bets (EW allowed) or Other if you want to allow forecasts and multiples.

Many thanks.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.

This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

42 comments

  1. Saturday’s Nap is Midnight Shadow in the old Massey Ferguson. The ‘Mackeson’ winner has gone up 7lbs, but he has a touch of class and is arguably improving. I’m confident he will be placed, especially at Skybet’s 5 places, but my nap is win only.

    Like

  2. Indefatigable. Cheltenham 3.35. Has a touch of class + goes well around here. 6/1.
    To make it easy on yourself Joe. Singles only, though I think ew ought to be included.

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  3. Coole Cody to use his extensive Cheltenham knowledge and get placed in the 13.50.
    I suspect he will drift out from his current 10/1 as it is not a sexy profile.
    Coole Cody e.w. is my nap.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I got Inevitable Outcome an ivawood 6furlong in last in wolves 14/1 about time i got profits.

      Mogul in Sha its time he won ..

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  4. Dostal Phil in the A.F. Budge/Tripleprint/Caspian Caviar/Racing Post Gold Cup

    I had conversations with a couple of journalists from the RP on track today (at Cheltenham) about the Frost/Dunne episode. This sanctity of the weighing room horsehite needs calling out. Both riders have been badly let down by their ‘unprofessional association’ (PJA). The fact that Frost had to seek redress without the support of her ‘union’ & that Dunne was allowed to make such a spectacle of himself while supposedly benefitting from his ‘union’s’ ‘informed representation’ beggars belief. I’ve a lot of time for David Bass but he also needs to urgently reflect on his “there were good people on both sides” nonsense.
    Riders, be they professional, conditional or amateurs deserve better than this. The PJA is an effing joke.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Providing you are paying your subs you will get your Union Rep to support you.
      One on each side. I am not sure how any Union can be portrayed to favour one member at the expense of another.

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      1. The PJA should have a clear code of conduct for membership. Anyone in breach of the rules should be investigated (membership or disputes commitee) & if they’re non-compliant they should be suspended/expelled, irrespective of being a paid-up member. No union has an obligation to advise or represent anyone that it believes has acted in a manner contrary to its rules, constitution or its values.

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        1. It is the Role of a Professional Regulator to discipline and not our Unions whose role is to advocate on our behalf.
          I don’t know why it is being reported as the PJA not supporting BF or supportig BD and being the bad guys as they weren’t involved before the Hearings.
          Exclusion from our Trades Unions based on your Criteria is a new one for me. Even the Victorians couldn’t come up.with that one when the Labour movement emerged.

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          1. I agree EGS, the role of the union is to advocate on behalf of its members but only as long as the member adheres to union’s rules, values & constitution. I know of countless examples where unions have refused to represent members based on the belief that their behaviour contravened the unions values. If the PJA hadproperly trained & accreditted representatives on track I suggest this could have been avoided.

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  5. (Not being a nap competiton participant)…….I think it should be singles (ew allowed). However, I also think that those who like to give doubles, reverse forecasts, trebles, goliaths, etc, should be free to do so (but outside the competition).

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  6. Very well done to the 3 winning tipsters from yesterday, superb tipping!

    While I NAP now and again, as I could not avail of the prize (if by some chance I ever did win), I don’t feel I should have a say in how it is operated.

    However, for Joe, single naps (and EW) would seen the easiest option.

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  7. I vote singles (EW OK) only.
    Reasoning (similar to some above): from a competitor’s perspective, it would be grand to let any kind of bet at all count, but I fear that the administrative burden on Joe keeping track of and calculating reverse forecasts, yankees, etc etc etc would be more than we can reasonably ask. So I think we should keep it simple for competition entries. Of course, people can and should advise all sorts of bets besides their tipping competition entry.

    Nap Knight Salute 14:40 Doncaster.

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  8. Here’s an ‘all or nothing’ to consider – Ballygrifincottage 2.25 Chelt. Never run under rule. Never run outside of Ireland. Was an excellent pointer and should hardly notice 10-12 on his back over hurdles. That’s my long shot for free Sunday lunch.

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  9. #mevotesinglestoo
    Nap: Spartan Fighter 4.30 Newcastle (win nap tho I’d advise a rfc with the fav Millionaire Waltz in case the latter can weave successfully through traffic)
    NB: Hamilton for pole at Abu Dhabi. I generally don’t like betting on outcomes that I don’t wish to materialise but Bottas at 10/1 (a juicier 16s earlier in the week) to win the race on Sunday seems fair if the top two collide… there was some good ‘advanced stewarding’ this week warning of possible points deductions if anyone gets too proactive on track -hopefully that’s enough of a deterrent to Red Bull and there’s a good clean fight this time. As for the cricket I hope nobody was too taken in by that Root/Malan partnership to bet against Australia winning -the collapse was all too familiar and predictable, teams just don’t come back from that position except once in a blue moon. That said, 1/9 on Australia winning the series is too short and since most opening Tests serve as quasi-practice matches now because of crazy scheduling, Jimmy and Broad due to take part, two day-night games… there’s mileage in the other two options at 10/1 but England do need to win the next one. Now if only they could switch out Leach for Adil Rashid …

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  10. For simplicity singles (ew) for nap table

    Song For Someome in the cheltenham 3.00 gets the dubious benefit of my nap. Certanly expect a run for my money with that one. Good luck all as ever.

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  11. Some cracking tipping yesterday, well done and I hope pockets were stuffed with money.
    My observations are that if you want to win, set off in front. At least a couple of races yesterday and the first today have involved some awful riding. Chester Williams rode really well to win the first today but to say the others gifted him the race is an understatement. I could rant for ages about horses/jockeys surrendering the rear to no-one and then staying there when they realised there was no way on Earth they could make up the ground eg Commodore was superb but 4 of the 9 pulled up and a couple of others did f all more than complete presumably because that was on the way home.
    Anyway I’ve a ridiculous amount of ground to try and make up myself and tempting as Deyranne de C is I’ll try and get on the board with
    Nap 1405 Donny Sognino
    and I can’t believe I’ve deserted Tommy’s Oscar, which to be honest I haven’t as I’ve backed them both.

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  12. Singles for competition purposes only, but I welcome any other “exotics” for betting purposes.

    CLAIRMC at Fairyhouse in the 15:22 after her interesting only prior performance under rules.

    I also like Carys’ Commodity (Hereford 13;57), Coltrane and Nolton Cross (Newcastle 14:20 and 16:00 respectively).

    Watching Commodore’s win yesterday. Is there a better sight in racing than a grey horse in full flow?

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  13. In a race where there are doubts over trip and ground for a few, Ballyadam looks a strong EW bet at 13/2 with Hills who pay first three. A Grade 1 hurdle winner, and still unexposed in that discipline. (3.00 Cheltenham).

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  14. Not after timing as I’m sure we all keep an eye on Milton’s horses but Knight Salute ran a cracker there in a fine race at Donny to win at 4 to 1, Lovely interview afterwards with an over the moon Paddy B as it was 34 grand to the winner and he said his share will help with Santa Claus!

    Like

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