Horsetalk Saturday December 18th 2021

Wow! What a day for our tipsters. Alan followed up his Thursday 11/1 runner up with a 25/1 winning Friday nap – Immortal Fame EW, and Dan followed his Thursday 15/2 winner with Friday’s 12/1 winning nap Kazzontherazz. David nailed the top notch Jonbon at 1/1; DN’s Earth Lord won at 5/1, and Rob J‘s Henri The Second won at 10/3 – stunning tipping, gentlemen; top class. Well done.

If I’ve left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on the Winners Thread. Thanks.

Saturday looks a proper challenge. There’s a £70,000 listed handicap chase at Ascot with 13 runners, none of which has won this season.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

35 comments

  1. As Joe has stated..today is a proper challenge…coincidently the same thing has happened again this evening..same race time as yesterday’s tip but this time at Lingfield 12:15.Bella Veneta backed in from 25s to 17/2….does lightning strike twice…impossible to ignore..

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  2. I forgot to also mention a Bravo Zulu to all of yesterdays winners …hope that those who didn’t have a winner today have better luck tomorrow..

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  3. Online, Ryan Summerfiled makes a very good case for Valtor being a top value bet and I will make him my nap. There are tempting looking races today, but so, so tough – for me at least. I could back 5 or 6 in the Long Walk using various lines of form (and attachment!), so I will be giving it the widest of berths. Buzz DeTurcoing ought to go well in the Tommy Whittle at a decent price and he is one of three or four I could get some EW multiples out of: Regal Encore will be a big price again at his beloved Ascot, where he hasn’t been out of the first three in his last 9 runs there; he’ll be one for EW multiples too, given the extra places Skybet are offering.

    Anyway – Valtor it is. Win only (whole duck or no dinner)

    RS Valtor article:
    Mel Rowley has started her career under rules brilliantly and she had another nice winner at Aintree a few weeks ago that was heavily backed during the day. Valtor is interesting here for a number of reasons. Firstly he’s moved here from Nicky Henderson and owners Munir/Soude. Anthony Bromley is their racing manager/purchases their horses and he is actually the new owner of Valtor so must think there’s races left in this horse.

    Secondly his son Ben Bromley is a very promising jockey and has been booked for this ride. Bromley is 9/41 22% so far in his career, a very high strike rate. For Mel Rowley he is 2/11 but 7/11 finished in the first three home.

    The final reason Valtor is so interesting is because back in 2018 he made a mockery of this race when winning by an easy 8 lengths off a mark of 148, when he first joined Henderson. That earned him a mark of 160 which was impossible to win off but he still ran some good races, including back at Ascot when second in a Listed Handicap Chase off 150. He’s brilliant fresh too having won first time out in both 2018 and 2019 both at Ascot so you’d imagine his new yard would have him pretty fit first time out.

    It’s another case of an older horse probably not being as good as he once was, however he’s off 138 now which is 10lb lower than his win here and Bromley also takes off a very valuable 7lb as well so he’s incredibly well handicapped if his new yard can find that spark again. His two career best runs have come at Ascot so it looks significant that they’ve targeted him back here and at a huge price he could cause a stir.

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    1. Valtor now out to 33/1…..Win only (whole duck or no dinner)…would rather go EW and perhaps have a duck leg rather than no dinner….good luck

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  4. It’s nice when they’re a few winners. Maybe some one has wandered along with a lucky 15 and did a few..

    I always like that Joe and others make picks on best race of day… Though yesterday I think I was on that with Jonbon and while it won like a training race with 5 runners I think that’s a chasm to the supreme. First 2 furlongs were covered in that many minutes. Every chance its a great horse, today proved little.

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  5. Having had my biggest bet in 3 years on Remastered in thr Jennesy – and started counting my winnings at the Cross fence – I’m just going to desert him in the Tommy Whittle – am I right to remember Bregawn winning it; similar future, methinks.

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    1. I am not going to desert Remastered, obviously – and am thinking of breaking my new rule and betting it AP for the Gold Cup.

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  6. I never like to catch Horses on the way down as they are falling off a cliff whilst the Handicapper rates it a slow downhill roll.
    I prefer to catch Horses on the up not that I ever spot them.
    I napped a Horse called Valsheda on Wednesday who could only finish second and the nominative similarity makes me include Valtor in an e.w. double with Cloth Cap in the 15.00 at Ascot.
    I think e.w. doubles may be banned so I will just say Valtor e.w. as I am with Alan. A duck leg is enough for me (the Ref on the Guardian would delete this entire thread based on watching too many carry on films and assuming innuendo).

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  7. Well I was thinking about West cork (15:35, Ascot) but DN has already gone there. Also like samarrive in the same race after being impressed by his finishing at Sandown two weeks ago, so despite his 11b rise I will nap him. The 15:00 looks a puzzle and a half, so it will be Ew on regal encore and cloth cap. Earlier on the card, I can’t believe Gordon Elliott has brought pencilfulloflead (NB) over without firmly believing a win is on the cards. Good luck all, and well done to all of yesterday’s winners.

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  8. A chance is taken with Vintage Clouds 2.40 Haydock NAP. Last did the business at Cheltenham in March, due a good run at 25/1.

    Some great tipping yesterday, congratulations to those winning tipsters!

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  9. Good battle there between Champ and Thyme Hill. But do you think Champ should stay over hurdles? I’d worry about him over bigger obstacles…

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    1. At 9, he needs to continue over jumps. Today’s race was a good option for a first run, the Savill’s at Leopardtown looks to be the next race.

      The horse was a very good price today and let’s hope West Cork now does the rest.

      Ant thoughts on Gavin Sheehan’s ride on Nina The Terrier? I like the lad, but he should be refunding all bets for that ride!

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    2. I am pretty sure Dilton posted as long as 2 years ago that the word was out that Champ reverting to Hurdles was not so much Plan B but more like Plan A and a half.
      Maybe I imagined that post.

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      1. Come to think of it, I believe you are right EGS. But it is tempting to put him over jumps. The horse is entered in the Stayers Hurdle, the Ryanair and the Gold Cup. Then the next race is the Savill’s over Christmas. If he takes up that entry and wins, I think it will be the big one. No bet for me.

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        1. Champ is a big, deep-bodied horse but not a quick learner. He looks a difficult ride too but Jonjo Jnr did a great job to stop him running away. They say he can’t go left-handed – he was woeful in the Dipper on New Year’s Day 2020 – yet the next race he came out and beat Minella Indo no less in the RSA. This year he had a rushed Cheltenham preparation, with his only prep race as late as February. Far be it from me to criticise the master trainer, but hat seemed a bizarre race to pick after a year’s absence, over 2m against a pure specialist over the minimum distance in Sceau Royal. In retrospect he ran a brave but unavailing second, with future Tingle Creek winner Greaneteen 10 lengths back in third. I think stepping back up to three and a quarter miles in the Gold Cup saw Champ suffer the dreaded bounce just three weeks after those Newbury exertions. If it all clicks he could still win a Gold Cup if he can just pick his feet up. Too early to put him on a lorry for Middleham anyway.

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      2. Totally different ball game jumping hurdles on a relatively level park track dollying around to going 3m2f uphill and down dale at pace over stiff fences with a dodgy back.
        I thought the horse was brilliant today as he was pulling double turning in but it’s the next 10 days that count to see if the old back problems resurface .It was a brilliant training performance to get him there like that though .

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