Horsetalk Monday December 20th 2021

Naps Table Update

Two winners on Sunday, each returned at 5/6: Eahba for Rob J and Concereo for David, who starts the new week as he finished the last. Well done, gents.

Sadly Valtor’s 4th on Saturday at 40/1 does not count for El Gran Senor, who napped it EW. Only 13 ran in the end and standard place terms mean first three home.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

35 comments

  1. The 13.30 at Lingfield caught my eye as it is rare to see a field priced up with a 6/4 fav. top weight shouldering 12 stone 7 and giving 29 pounds to the 2nd fav. at 2/1 who is bottom weight.
    No science in tipping a Horse in that Race and also little in the listed 16.20 at Deauville with my nap of Miss Marble trained by S&E Crisford and trading at 5/1.
    It is a 52,000 euros added race which I believe exceeds the total purse on all 7 Races at Wolves.
    The opener at Deauville is also a 50,000 euros added race.

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    1. My sister astounds me as i spend hours every day studying form.
      I said to her to day did you back any thing ? she had 3 bets all winners coopers 8/1 shot .
      I was thinkin will i visit her early in the day and just follow what she BETTING And charge for her info..its purely luck she follows nothing im sick now .
      I better try your french tips..b gud

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        1. My sister lives near him and she says its all so quiet there.
          I see MHEMAS had good win today.i tell everyone to watch them and i never am on ..
          Thank god for holly doyle in last..

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  2. Where are we on the Dragon theory (is it every 10 runners ?). Anyway in order to advance the Dragon cause Dragon Springs in the 1:00 at Lingfield

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    1. The theory is that all theories are bunk but useful crutches for a while…it is a Dragoon Springs of a horse (whatever that is supposed to be) but since the word is obviously derived from dragon I think we can safely admit it to the Hall of Fame if it wins. Best of luck ..🐉

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  3. Lizzie Loch 2.15 Musselburgh is the win nap,I am hoping the wind op works.If all 8 run I will have a few bob EW on her but the nap is win only.Well done yesterdays winners.

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  4. Nap : Oscar Clouds 1.45 Muss. 🎬☁️🐇
    NB: Operating 4.30 Wolverhampton – 👯🔵🍊🔵 this runner is a bit of a Christmas ‘Easter egg’ being a Gosden twins runner for Coolmore (Tabor silks) – perhaps some experts will know if that combination has happened before 🤔 …good luck to all your fancies 🎄

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    1. Rakib, there was a 2 yo Coolmore/Gosden Colt two years ago.
      I can’t remember his name but it was a single word nice name.
      It was at Ballydoyle but was shipped to Gosden perhaps for a change of scenery.
      He won 1st time out and I think 2nd time as well and had quotes for the Guineas but proved limited when stepped up in class.
      I don’t think he raced at 3. Clearly APOB did not make an error of judgement in letting him go.

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      1. Ah, just the expert I was thinking of . Not a massive error of judgment. Op seems to have a good profile, for the immediate all-weather job in hand anyway…whether it has similar limitations later in life who knows, understanding War Fronts aren’t your cup of oolong anyway. I thought the Beckett runner was the chief threat but that’s drifted. At 11/4 currently there’s room for a late market move somewhere towards evens if Op. is a good thing.

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  5. Unlike the napping giants on here, I have been going through a fallow period of ploughing an unproductive betting furrow recently. No green shoots, let alone a harvest. I had a crystal clear dream last night that Gosden had a winner. Consequently, I have backed Operating and Eternal Summer separately and in a double 16.30 and 18.00 at Wolverhampton respectively. They are not naps, just a dream. Eternal optimist more like. A figment of my imagination. What a wonderful word.

    I wonder if anyone saw the Racing Post John Francome interview on You Tube with Maddy Playle? I think it might be paywalled. He thinks most NH jockeys are not so good and haven’t been trained properly. Of course, he’s way ahead of the game on his thinking about use of the whip. His attitude to life is admirable, I think. A pleasure to listen him.

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    1. I seem to remember you (or maybe someone else) posting a tip from a dream on the guardian site and it coming in. I think I’m going to have to follow

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        1. Yes it was about a potato pyramid and Montague Don. It was the Goodwood handicap in July 2020, Just Hubert. It was not a dream where I saw the race or heard the winner, far from it. It was a complete fluke based on convoluted connections made after I woke up, just a bit of fun.

          https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/142655724

          Last night’s dream was just that Gosden had won. But who knows when? Last year, this year, next year? There’s no form to go on. At your peril if you follow such foolhardiness.

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      1. I once shared a true story concerning my mother. We were very close with a shared love of horseracing. She had a vivid dream that woke her up, it was about a race won by a horse named Aughfad, so vivid was it that she wrote down the name. The next day she rang me at work to ask me to see if it was running anywhere but I couldn’t find it. Knowing that she occasionally had these visions I kept looking until a few days later I saw it entered at Chepstow. I backed it for her it won at 33/1. They ran it not long after and I backed it for both of us, this time it won at Doncaster at a lesser price. I never ignored her fancies no matter the price she was very lucky.

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        1. An encouraging tale. I think today’s result is hard evidence that my dreams are thoroughly unprophetic. But I could not take the chance.

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    2. I enjoyed the interview. Francome was always a grafter as well as a good jockey. He’s also smart and his opinions on racing are worth listening to.

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  6. I am returning to the UK today to spend Christmas and the New Year in the Uxbridge area, Covid willing, I am going to Kempton Park on the 27th and meeting the esteemed tipster Rakib there, In case he’s not in his usual form I look forward to any tips for that day. I think it’s my first trip to KP since 1990,

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    1. Wishing you a safe journey, a Merry Christmas, and a happy time at KP. While I’m at it – Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone here!!
      (Feel more Christmassy now I’ve just done a big shop today and put up the Christmas tree yesterday!)

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  7. Lee Westwood is not short of a bob or three, but in the time honoured phrase he “paid for Christmas” with his winning bumper debutant at Musselburgh, Call Me Harry. Owned in partnership with David Armstrong, this well bred horse was well prepared for the race today and heavily backed to turn over the Nicky Richards filly at the head of the market. He could defy a penalty before going hurdling.

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