Horsetalk Sunday December 26th 2021

Happy Boxing Day or St Stephen’s Day if you prefer. Not the best quality of racing really for such an iconic day. Anyway, I’m sure you guys will find winners. Have a good day.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

49 comments

  1. I should nap Ahoy Senor (having just backed him for the 2022 Gold Cup), but am well behind so will go for one in the King George – the only imo who looks proper value – Tornado Flyer. I’ve said elsewhere I find him a fascinating entry given his profile of being winless for 2 years, beaten in his last 9. How odd it would be for any trainer to put a horse like that in such a hot race, let alone Mullins. On form I cannot pick anything in the race, so I’ll rely on Willie’s judgement.

    After Newcastle Hughie Morrison said Not So Sleepy had suddenly changed in his yard over the summer from an always-on lunatic to something much quieter. If he can put his new character to good use again, it would be nice to see him build a consistent string of form. I’ll back him too, but the nap is Tornado Flyer (I believe Dilton was quite keen on him for Cheltenham).

    Good luck.

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    1. “Value” bet, Joe! Redolent of the old days. In the end, when all things are equal, put your faith in Wille Mullins’s judgement. Chapeau. I don’t know what Dilton’s view was about it today, but he certainly recommended it previously.

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    2. Well done Joe and I can assure all that that Dilton was on TORNADO FLYER from early doors. The only doubt for the double was Mr Wood putting JACAMAR up as his next best!

      Happy days.

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    3. Many thanks all for the kind comments. TF was more welcome than normal as I had a rare maximum bet on Ahoy Senor :(. I suspect they won’t go right handed with him again and I’m confident we didn’t come close to seeing his potential today.

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  2. Hope everyone has had a lovely Christmas..chilling with a Bowmore … time has flown since the forum was set up and before we know it Christmas will be here again…Special thanks to Joe for setting this up and thanks to those who have got the syndicate up and running..looking forward to the next 12 months…On to tomorrows racing, still undecided … good luck with your tips.

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      1. After his last race…I knew what was going to happen…last couple of furlongs, extra gear and go…lovely to watch it all go to plan..

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  3. A day for a long coupon with place bets for me.
    I will factor in the ‘bounce factor’ for Ferny Hollow in the 14.20 at Leopardstown and will take Couer Sublime as the place bet.
    Tornado Flyer has been placed on the only 2 occasions I have backed him and it will only take 2 stinking performances from his betters for him to finish 4th.
    I think Asterion Forlonge is over rated but it might not take much to win this KG.
    As I am trailing in the naps competition I am going for Awkwafina e.w. in the 14.08 at Limerick as my nap who is around 20/1.

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    1. I tried to count how many horses g Elliott has out about 30.
      I dunno where to start.
      Im so tired of opinions on jockeys in media.
      Every day i try to see whats my next win.
      So i will put the house and new car on GOING GLOBAL del mar.
      Im not messing about anymore.
      I think i will become a horse my sister tells me AOB stable has the best best food ever.happy Xmas . It think m brassil has 1 okish

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        1. 2 exirish in Golden Gates minsky black minsky .
          Still POWERS not put up price on GOING GLOBAL IN ST ANITA..I must avoid m tabor i got 11.1 winner in 5 .3o gulf..
          Too many baffert favs tnite.

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            1. So many ex irish in st anita tnite
              I dunno where to start as no prices on powers.i just figure if some guy had the moolah to buy from over here and ship to usa.
              In the 9,05 4 ex irish running ,lincoln place is a MHEMAS..

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    2. Wouldn’t take much? Trolling the Gold Cup winner a tad there! A biblical f-ton of rain in the SE over the last few days means the 3 miles will take some getting.
      Nap: Minella Indo for the King George.
      NB: River of Dettol (approximate spelling) , not because of any bounce factor for Ferny H. but giving that much weight to a quality chaser looks tough. Anyone fancying Ferny today should be putting their house on him winning at Cheltenham instead.

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    3. That’s a race to put me off cheekpieces for life…A Plus Tard for the Gold Cup on that performance by Indo too. Nice to see Asterion do his party piece …🤡

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  4. I’m with Joe regarding Tornado Flyer but won’t nap it as he has done so.
    For sport, I’ll NAP KO KATE 3.50 Limerick (you’re no lady!!).25/1 or so as I type.
    Good luck with your bets.

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  5. Good luck with all your bets over the holidays and all the very best for 2022.
    This is going to be a quite informative day, particularly over in Ireland.
    No nap for today as I am as nervous as a kitten with the Acca.

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  6. A Yo Ho Ho to all. Hope everyone had a fine Xmas – hint – Boxing Day is a good one to avoid the bathroom scales…

    Loads of racing about obviously with Kempton the obvious jewel. i quite fancy Minella indo.for the KG but plenty with chances – i’ll nap one in the last of the day at kempton 3.40 An Taillur who doesnt owe me anything..

    Good Luck all

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