Horsetalk Monday December 27th 2021

Naps Table Update

Good winners today for me and Alan in the respective shape of Tornado Flyer 28/1 and Jacamar 11/1 – nice work!


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

48 comments

  1. A few here might know how highly I rate Sandy Thomson for working wonders with talented horses who’ve long been off the boil. There’s evidence already he has done the same with Hill Sixteen, beaten a nose in The Becher and I’m napping him to follow up in the Welsh National, where a few look overpriced, not least Venetia’s second string Achille, who can be backed at 50/1 to 5 places with Bet365. Potters Corner too looks overpriced at16/1 to 7 places.

    All the best.
    Joe

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  2. I’ve had a great few thanks to tips on here. naymargus Keeps posting winner after winner. Much thanks and I had a free bet from bet365 I stuck on tornado flyer. Excellent. I’m baffled why 365 keep giving me free bets. I used the account once last Cheltenham and I’ve been given free bets for most big meets since. I’m sure the answer is that they will soon recoup and more but there you go

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  3. 🌪️🌪️🌪️Nap: Largy Debut, 1.45 Leop. On his actual debut he made Kilcruit backers look a bit silly. Good chance for the BBC World Sports Personality to bounce back from the disappointing effort of her KG mount today with another Grade 1.
    NB: Secret Reprieve in the Welsh. Almost looks too simple to pick it, hoping it is in reality! 🌪️🌪️🌪️

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    1. I cannot believe I sometimes have independent thought and not only bet on Tornado Flyer before advised but also Achille as far down the places I could find in the 14.50 at Chepstow tomorrow.
      I have done this with Achille before and he returns some of my stake which is all I ask.
      I am not doing Independent thought in having a bet on Hill Sixteen as I know Joe was more confident Snow Leopardess would thrash him further than she did last time. I just plagiarised him with that bet.
      I also have had a bet on Rakib’s nap Largy Debut in the 13.45 at Leopardstown possibly before he made that same wager as sometimes it is the second smack on the head that wakes you up and not the first.
      I think RB will have a different day and I am with Rakib that no 2 Horse days are the same. For that same reason I also believe Rakib’s Headgear of choice may win today and Alfa Mix in the 14.55 at Leopardstown in 1st time Cheekpieces is my nap.

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      1. I kick myself for betting on emiseal jamarilllo and cathleen o connell but off my ass i won on her in last in gulf
        I been following ex IRISH in usa i hope you got Bipartisanship.
        Now for GOING GLOBAL at 12,20 …
        I guess night time usa RACING is my Specialist subject.

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          1. BIPARTIANSHIP in gulf was 3rd to paddys twomeys at fairyhouse Pearl Galore who ran in lonchamp and del mar i figured someone in usa made a smary buy from mcreerys irish stable. But 28/1 opening price was a dream and a bit off putting . But he has the decent class. I been always looking at p twomeys and what they beat are usually going to win not always mmm chow

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      2. Cheekpieces and championship races (which makes Serpentine winning the Derby even worse)… I’m sure yours will do fine in that field of 20 gajillion! Whether you can spot the right McManus horse matching it to the right hat midrace should be the bigger worry.

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  4. Naymargus,
    Fantastic with Bipartisanship and I never knew there were form lines with P.Twomey Horses.
    He is a man who seems to be on the up.
    Belated Happy Xmas and NY Wishes, blah, blah and I am glad you didn’t need to pawn your brand new car and your House up the mountain due to your success with Bipartisanship.
    The Readers on this Forum will expect results on your specialist
    subject as they are a cruel bunch (not).

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    1. Jeeeeez i backed the winner of going globals race as a saver.
      Lots of ex irish going tnite in delmar .
      A mehmas lincoln somthing is a fav..
      I had a good 3 j valasquez .
      winners..one of the irish was 100/1 shot in galway out tomorrow in usa.
      I need to hire a maid and secretary to make notes.
      An ivawood in lepertstown and a mehmas in wolve to keep eye on..cheers
      Its my best day ever today in usa racing..

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    2. Im watching the trainer vladamir cerin has 3 horses out
      1 hujood in turf paradise.
      2 in st anita.
      He is top class trainer..

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    3. I been kicking myself as to how i had the car accident on such straight road etc.
      I drove back the same way today in THE DARK and lots oncoming traffice and its dangerous.
      So many also badly lit tractors on roads.. cheers my nerves are improving…

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      1. I had an accident years ago. Some one went into the back of me. Wrote the cat off but we were fairly unharmed. It took a while to feel safe again. I was wary of other drivers for a long time. Hopefully you’ll feel better soon.

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  5. Avoiding napping the obvious willie Mullins horses (Leopardstown) and the two big favourites at kempton, I shall go for Porticello nap (Chepstow 13:40). Well done to yesterday’s (big) winners!

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    1. Also forgot to mention Deise Aba e/w in the Welsh national, didn’t do itself justice in the London national, but finished well.

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  6. I think the part of betting on horses which I most enjoy comes at the beginning of the day when I am considering bets. Anticpation. I like to write the horses’ names down in longhand on a piece of paper and ponder. When it’s a special day or festival, the enjoyment is greater. I always think that anything is possible and I rarely back favourites. Days like yesterday encourage me. The only kind of nap I like is a long odds one like Joe’s humdinger yesterday. I was very lucky yesterday, but I won’t aftertime. So today it’s another blank sheet of paper. I have bought a new bottle of Quink and I am using an italic pen (second hand) which MMe Q gave me for Christmas last year. All these details are part of the enjoyment. Oh yeah, winning is good, too. But so are compelling races. It’s all going to unfold again. Enjoying the moments, the drama. It’s an endlessly unfolding pageant like, at the best of times, life is.

    Good luck and savour the enjoyment, wherever you find it.

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    1. Good words Quai. We all like the money, but the working out is also a joy. I also now write down my bets in Collins Cathedral Analysis Book. It’s important to know where you stand ….. or fall!

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      1. Cathedral Analysis. Soaring vaults. Flying buttresses, (if not bolsters). Heavyweight stuff!

        Flippancy aside, I know that type of meticulous recording is the first stage of having a chance of staying ahead of the bookie. I couldn’t do it. Nor do I have the retentive memory, nay encyclopaedic, of some who post on here, (e.g. Harrytheactor).

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        1. I use the 69/3.1, red cover.

          I have to do it Quai, but I only use it to know where I stand financially and I do not review it as a form book.

          I separate NH from the flat; France and Ireland from the U.K.; keep a weekly and annual tally (with a separation for both codes).

          I do go out😉

          I would be interested to hear others systems.

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        2. What use to amuse me was real sensible punters going to race meeting and backing just 1 horse they had a word about. Or waiting for Mullins in the last race.
          When i use go i had to have bet in each race and in uk races
          Thats why im a sorry mess.

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  7. Morning all. Just a couple of talking points possibly from yesterday.
    I’d be interested to hear peoples thoughts on the rides of Rachael Blackmore & Bryony Frost in the KG. Surely they had watched the previous races & seen how hard it was to get home in that ground. Was it the wisest thing, tactically, to go off at that breakneck pace ?

    Also, did anyone see the 3m 2f chase at Fontwell where the leader,Nessfield Blue, pulled itself up after the last & just came to a stop. the others walked over the line. Not good optics for NH racing & they were very lucky that Nessfield Blue didn’t keel over.

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    1. yeah – that Fontwell race was an awful sight. The horse had literally had enough, those that passed her looked no better. it must have been really heavy. Not conditions you want to see horses run in at any kind of distance. And agree that both the jockeys in the KG blew their respective chances inside the first mile or so…

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    2. Strange rides indeed from the two jockeys. I would be interested to know whether they were riding to orders or took it on themselves to do this. We know that Frodon likes to lead and, perhaps, the thought was to unsettle the horse by taking it on.
      My gut feeling is that it was to orders, as Rachel is too smart.

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    3. I’m guessing Racheal took it upon herself not to let Bryony dictate things again. Though I think Indo ran too bad to be true, for it to become an issue.

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    4. Frodon has to dominate to have a chance of winning, so Bryony had little choice but to get to the from no matter the cost. Minella Indo was, with hindsight, perhaps a fluke winner of the Gold Cup. From memory, Rachel makes very few mistakes when faced with a choice and she turned Minella Indo down in the Gold Cup. There’s a chance too that MI has yet to recover from his exertions that day; he looked kind of lifeless first time out this season. Anyway, I doubt Rachel did anything wrong and Bryony would have been slated had she tried dropping off the hot pace then losing. You’re right about exhausted horses racing on, arguably worse to see than fallers.

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    5. Jamie Moore has to be the hardest riding jockey in the weighing room at the moment, and Nessfield Blue clearly pulled himself up on the run-in. But don’t forget that he won over C&D in October and Gavin Sheehan gave him pretty much the same sort of ride. He’s a bad jumper, runs around between fences and needs some rousting. Jockeys really earn their fee on those types. At Fontwell he was the favourite and go back into contention having lost his place on the final circuit with some ragged jumps, so Jamie was entitled to keep going on him as long as possible. I certainly won’t be backing the horse any time soon. Actually seeing horses as tired as that is quite disturbing when you’re there – far worse than on the telly. So you’re right, it’s not a good look but you’re going to get it when the ground is like a tatie field.

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  8. Kimberlite Candy ew in Welsh National – I know it doesn’t count for the competition but I’ll be on the 7 places at William Hills.

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  9. When you’re ready chep 13.05 should be todays pick but after Joes heroics yesterday a big price is needed so its Potters Corner in the Welsh national for the nap.

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  10. Can’t resist a small EW on Miltons Genuflex in the 13:40 Chep …33/1 Sky 4 plcs….ground is going to be against but then it may be the same for a few of the others..

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  11. Today’s Welsh National is as beautiful a puzzle as you will find in staying handicap steeplechasing. On form, a number of them could be bet with the confidence of getting a big run. I believe preparation will be the deciding factor today rather than form on its own. Ten of the runners won or were second last time out, but some got involved in hard races – Highland Hunter and Deise Aba come to mind.

    I’m looking for something of quality with a quieter prep and the first to fit that profile is Mighty Thunder, the Scottish horse who suddenly found what he was made for when stepped up to extreme distances. I’ve a slight concern that he might prefer better ground, though he acts well on this and he ought to be involved in the finish.

    Ramses De Teillee is another who looks to have had a quiet build up, and the Pipe yard has a fine record when fitting a horse with headgear for the first time. This grey horse makes his cheekpieces-debut today and he is on my list.

    So too is Achille, ignored by a few because they assume stable jock Charlie Deutsch has picked Hold That Taught, but Venetia said yesterday “Achille has shown he stays these distances well and we hope for a good run from him. He got a tendon injury at Cheltenham two years ago and did well to come back from that. Hugh [Nugent] has won twice on Achille so it was obvious he should ride.”

    Bet365 took a very chancy view on Achille yesterday offering 50/1 to 5 places. That was double the best price elsewhere. He’s now 14/1 across the board.

    Discordantly is worth considering at around 22/1, if nothing else on the same basis as Tornado Flyer was yesterday – an unusual looking entry form a very savvy trainer who says this has been the plan for a long time.

    On old form at the track Potters Corner looks to have a fine chance now that he seems back from the wilderness with his excellent run in the Cross Country last time. But the heavy question mark hanging from his neck is how he will treat these park fences. Tiger Roll’s rejuvenation came via Cross Country races, but he was nowhere near that form level over conventional fences and I wonder if Potters Corner will take a similar view to these comparatively boring fences.

    The one I think is capable of seeing them all off is Hill Sixteen. He looked hugely promising at the start of his career before badly losing his way. He looks to have changed owners over the summer and the new ones had the brilliant idea of sending him to the genius that is Sandy Thomson – The Rejuvenation Man who quietly works his magic with lost-cause horses from his quiet base near Kelso.

    On his second run for the yard, Hill Sixteen failed by a nose to catch the Snow Leopardess in The Becher last time. I’m hoping he will go one better today, and he’d be the winner for me, though I’ll have EW bets to 7 places on Mighty Thunder, Ramses De Teillee, and Discordantly, having backed Achille yesterday EW. Good luck.

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