Horsetalk Tuesday December 28th 2021

Naps Table Update

On winners, Rob J held the fort with Porticello at 10/3, and Jamie got a place from his EW selection Lord Baddesley at 11/1 (available at double those odds this morning when tipped). Well done, gents.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

25 comments

  1. Quite a few Welsh National hopes badly hampered at the start, though the winner was most impressive. Two years in a row the winner has come from the trial chase at Chepstow. I left him out because of doubts about his stamina!

    Anyway, on to today and Leopardstown where, despite these graded Irish chases tending to be won at ‘Buggins Turn’, A Plus Tard looks almost impossible to beat. There’s one who won’t beat him but could easily hit a place at huge odds – Bryony’s mount Franco De Port; I thought he ran really well for a long way last time and over this longer trip Bryony might get him into a rhythm. So, Franco De Port, is the EW nap.

    Good luck.

    Like

  2. Absolutely uncanny that I did Franco de Port at 33/1 e.w. in the 14.20 at Leopardstown long before the blog opened it’s tips as that is the 3rd day running it has happened.
    I know you all did Toronado Flyer. I know you all did Achille down to various places.
    Franco De Port was a G1 winner as recently as last Boxing Day and is in a race with some depth but of the proven mediocre kind.
    I bet De Bromhead has switched the brain of A Plus Tard off till March and whilst I still expect him to put on a show the CGC is THE bet and doubling your AP voucher seems wiser than nibbling along the way to March.
    Even with 20/20 hindsight vision I firmly believe RB made the correct decision to choose APT in the 2021 CGC.

    My nap is Coventry in the 13.10 at Leopardstown e.w. who is currently 25/1.
    He is ex-Ballydoyle and I never understood why Sue called a Colt this name who is by Galileo out of the Irish Oaks winner Moonstone (Dalakhini Damsire) and was never going to be precocious enough to win the Coventry at RA.
    In fact he never progressed and was led out unsold at the end of his 3 yo campaign and I am guessing was gifted by Coolmore to John Halley (who was a major part of the legendary Equine Veterinary Hospital at Fethard who managed to save the life of Galileo in 2008 not once but twice).
    He only trained him for one race.
    It must have been a good training performance as he ran Riviere D’etel to 12L and only the likes of Jeff Kidder and Ferny Hollow get that close to her.
    He was then switched to Paul Nolan.
    The Guardian Newspaper could run their next 6 Racing columns on John Halley which would carry them all the way up to Cheltenham when they might engage readers in an enjoyable way again as they have over Xmas.

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    1. Hope you got m brassils winner.
      Dunno future of Kemboy he can still win maybe if he was held up and farther..
      Am applying for a job in gulf or delmar . Not losing my shirt.
      3 ex IRISH in gulf..

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  3. Some great tips over the holidays so well done all,I need a miracle this month so will go with Elkstone 12.28 Leicester hoping the wind op revives him.

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  4. Although yesterday’s nap did win, rather annoyingly, I had originally napped Golden whisky (which won at 12/1) on the basis that the wedge/ Williams combo always have success at the Welsh derby meet and changed my mind for the safer option at the last minute. Oh well que Sera sera and all that. Once again today I shall avoid napping the obvious Mullins horses at Leopardstown and so it’s a toss up between Sigrid 13:25 (catterick) and mylestown upper 12:35 (Leopardstown). Purely on the slightly better odds I’ll go for mylestown upper (nap). Good luck all.

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  5. As we are without Aussie Moon in the syndicate – maybe we could approach Willie Mullins about leasing another horse; I suggest Galopin Des Chamos or Redemption Day!!! 😛

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  6. Like anyone watching very impressed by Redemption Day. Hard to judge going forward as it almost trotted round, if it can jump a hurdle…I think on a few days when reputations haven’t always held up ( i cant take Shiskins flat spot going forward for example, in a big field? i think APT wont try to come from the back again either ) that was a great performance

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  7. Two at Gulfstream tonight:
    6.58 Daddy Frank (ex-Gosden; had a kind introduction to US racing last month)
    7.28 Harry’s Ontheloose (obviously; solid track form; I expect him to sink the Belgrano).

    Like

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