Horsetalk Wednesday December 29th 2021

Naps Table Update

David scored with Representing Bob at 9/4, Jamie with the impressive Klassical Dream at 7/4: Nice work, gents.


Betfair Naps Table

Starting November 1st 2021, Betfair have kindly agreed to provide two tickets each month to the winner of the naps table for one of their sponsored racedays.

Please post your nap each day using the comments section below this thread. All welcome. You need not post every day and can join in at any point in the month, as one big priced winner could win you the prize, which is settled on the tipster showing the biggest profit at the end the month. But, bear in mind that on days your name does not appear on the Daily Naps Results winners list, you’ll be assumed to have picked a loser.

For example, if at the end of the month your name is on the list once with a 25/1 winner, you will have your £250 profit from that nap deducted from assumed losing stakes for each other day. Assuming a 30-day month, your total stakes would be viewed as £300, returns as £260, for a loss of £40. I hope this makes sense. If you can think of a better way or a way to express this more clearly, please leave a comment below.

You need post only the horse’s name, but feel free to elaborate on your reasons for picking it.

If your selection secures a return – EW naps are allowed – please post the result in the Winners Thread stating it was your nap and mentioning the SP. Non runners will be settled as a break even day.

Profit will be calculated to a £10 stake on each selection. EW selections will be staked at £5EW.

All naps will be settled at SP, so please do not include an early price. This will help maintain clarity and reduce the chances of disputes. We will use standard place rules a la Tattersalls to settle EW naps. Otherwise I need to start checking place offers, non runners affecting it, etc. Doubtless some will suffer because of this, but I think it will even out in the end.


This Site

This site is open to all. It’s free and there’s no need to enrol formally, but if commenting, please choose a username when making your comment.

We discuss horse racing mostly, but have a Lounge if you want to bring up any other subject.

You are welcome to enter our Daily Naps Challenge – a fun competition for which Betfair kindly donates two Raceday tickets every month for the winner.

The rules for the site are basic: be kind to everyone, and please don’t swear. We are not prudes, but we do not have a moderator other than me – Joe McNally, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time monitoring the site. If you see something you want to report, you can do so confidentially using the Contact page. Play the man and not the ball, by which I mean you can castigate heavily someone’s point of view, but do not castigate the poster personally.

Finally, there are some hardened and skilled tipsters here and each has their good and bad runs. When one starts a good run, it can seem to the less experienced that all prayers have been answered, and a holy grail of winners has been found. But please never make that assumption. It’s not the way things work in betting, for anyone. Sharks flogging baited tips would have you believe that this holy grail does exist. Well, there is a collective punting experience on this site numbering, I’d say, close to 500 years. Not a single tipster here will tell you that reliable profits can be made from betting racehorses.

So, this is not a mild and dutiful problem betting disclaimer. I’ve been in the business since 1971 and have seen any amount of God’s misery caused by betting beyond means. Punting is a brilliant pastime, but a horrible compulsion, a fantastic servant, but a dreadful master. Never bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile … and there’s plenty of big smiles in small stakes.

Good luck

Joe

35 comments

  1. Petit Mouchoir has been placed in the first 3 at 22/1 up to 28/1 in 3 of his last 6 Races.
    Alas, in the equivalent race last year a stupid NR scuppered my place bet on Petit Mouchoir but he owes me nothing.
    Also, Alas, places are down to 2nd today once again.
    I will still do him to come second to Saint Roi in a SF whose reputation deserts him in sight of a Racecourse.
    Saint Roi is my nap in the 14.20 at Leopardstown.

    Like

    1. i’m sure there’s an Irish equivalent of the Scots Rammy but watching those Leop races with 20 going round top corner thats a rammy. Anything can happen. Id ban any rider in last few days at Leop for a week on grounds they must have done something 🙂

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      1. I think the slow, slow, slow, quick, quick style (let’s leave it all to 2nd last, lads) of the Leopardstown Xmas meeting lends itself to Argy Bargy (I failed at Irish and that is as close as I can guess as to what a Scots Rammy means)
        It is why I have never found Leopardstown at Xmas enjoyable.
        I think the Dublin Festival staged at the start of Feb has a truer pace since its conception and measures something more than Leopardstown at Xmas.

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        1. Argy bargy close enough I think. I wonder if there is French for it.. I’ve a whole o level in French, not gained yesterday. Don’t recall many fighting words.. ( caution slight ww2 joke, may cause offence).

          EGS, song wise declan o rourke from Kinwara is your man if don’t know him. Have a listen to arrivals his latest. Not the Smiths but great song writing

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          1. My Brother keeps buying me Trad music for my Birthday and Xmas and I have never had the guts to tell him can you please take it back?
            It is certain that I have a Declan O’Rourke CD still wrapped in plastic and will search my highest top cupboard.
            I saw The Smiths twice in Cork City, the first occasion before the release of their debut album but their songs were already on the Radio.
            I was surrounded by John Peel Nerds like myself and realised this was a narrative of interest for other people than myself.

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        2. My brother, the quieter man you could ever meet, was once arrested on a Friday night in Glasgow. Gobsmacked, I rang the police to ask why he was being held. The desk sergeant said, ‘He was in a rammy up a close’ (Close is a narrow alleyway, normally between/among tenements.)

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          1. A close is a ‘ginnel’ in my language: as in (about a bow-legged man) ‘”he couldn’t stop a pig in a ginnel”.

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              1. It’s probably the only discernible effect they have had on the club so far. By the way, Eddie Howe has announced he is looking to replicate the Keegan strategy of “if they score four we’ll score five”.

                “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.” (Bette Davis)

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  2. I’ve given the nap. NB is Red Tornado 12.42 Kelso. I’ll be shocked, shocked (like that idiot Renault in Casablanca) if it wins.

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    1. Changing my nap to 🐉Regina Dracones, 12.55 Limerick. I don’t recall any Smiths songs with ‘dragon’ in the title….I imagine Rachael Blackmore was thinking ‘How Soon is Now’ on when to push the button on A Plus Tard yesterday though & what difference would it have made if Indo had gone for the Savills and APT the King George – we’ll never know! On such hairline decisions that elusive beast called ‘stable form’ can sometimes hang. I think Chris Cook has it right when he says the 10/1 available yesterday for Indo in the Gold Cup was incredibly good value though.

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      1. Rakib,
        I thought it was mad to send Minella Indo to such a fast track at Kempton particularly as APT was on a million pound bonus who would have won easily.
        I know nothing about training Horses but that decision baffled me. I can only think HdB was on a learning exercise with Minella and APT hasn’t and will not raise a trot before his Cheltenham prep Race since Haydock.

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  3. 11/4 for Vanillier in the 1.45 at Leapoardstown seems a bit of value so that’s the nap.

    Dashel Drasher in the 2.00 at Newbury back hurdling off 13 lbs. lower than his last chase mark merits the NB. Good luck all.

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  4. 3.05 Newbury High Stakes – with 7 runners not much point to EW and anyway if he doesn’t win he’ll be right out the back.

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      1. Excellent, Luke. Who says Grumpy is a Chepstow course specialist? What he really loves is hock-deep ground, and he got it at Newbs today. Unusually he made his chase debut in a Listed race and nobody minded that he just had a school round 74 lengths behind the winner. Hence the tasty 12/1 SP today.

        Anyone else notice the other contender for BOG bargain of the day? Surrey Quest at Doncaster. Second in a bumper, then a winner of a novice hurdle beating a long odd-on shot of Skelton’s, yet still drifted from 4/1 to 11/1. Not many Nicky Henderson novice hurdlers are that neglected in the market.

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  5. Two at Gulfstream tonight:
    6.58 Daddy Frank (ex-Gosden; had a kind introduction to US racing last month)
    7.28 Harry’s Ontheloose (obviously; solid track form; I expect him to sink the Belgrano).

    Like

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