A 25/1 Plot For The Mandarin?

A devilish hard race this 2.25 at Newbury on Saturday, but I’ll back two EW. Certainly Red has a steadily improving profile and it’s not that hard to argue he might, with better luck, be going for a four-timer here, having been brought down on his seasonal debut at Lingfield. He signed off with a 5l win at Kempton in March, and won again at fogbound Wincanton 4 weeks ago by 17 lengths. His trainer believes Hen Knight has turned his jumping around after he was sent there specifically for that purpose. He looks fine value EW to 5 places with Bet365 at 14/1.

Champagne Court is the other EW pick, though I am donning my conspiracy hat for this one. At his best he was off 143 – (8th of 20 to Imperial Aura at the 2020 festival). He started joint fav off 136 in this race two years ago (finished 8th). He’s now off 129. He won at Perth on his seasonal debut, then ran poorly over 19f at Fontwell but won next time here at Newbury: the stewards had a word and his trainer Jeremy Scott said “he ran over two and half miles last time on quick ground and it was too sharp. I was worried about the ground today, but it was three miles”

So what do you think Mr Scott did next? He sent him back to Fontwell on good ground again, over 21.5f, and he ran even worse than the previous time. Now we find him back at Newbury off 129 over 26f with Harry Skelton riding. I am probably making 2+2 into 5, but at 25s EW to 5 places, I’m happy to have a small bet.

Ben Pauling’s been going great guns since moving to a new, supposedly state of the art yard in Naunton. He had 2 winners and a 2nd today from 4 runners, bringing him up to 4 winners this week from 20 runners. He has Le Breuil in the race, whom many of you will doubtless remember with pain, as I do. So I’ll probably have a just in case win bet on him: he is 16/1 as I write (Friday evening)

Good luck
Joe

My usual warning. Anything I put up as a tip here is for ‘fun money’ – stakes you can afford to lose almost without even thinking about it.  There’s just as much fun to be had with small stakes.

Champagne Court pulled up. The other two were non runners. (Certainly Red came out the following Saturday and won easily at 9/1). Loss for the day at £5ew, £10.

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