3.00 Sandown, Saturday
I spent 20 minutes on this race on Thursday, concluding that Run To Milan was the best value EW to 6 places: he was 20/1. I hadn’t looked closely enough at the others to commit at that point. I checked this morning (Friday) after Dingo Dollar was taken out and he was 16/1 – fair enough. But looking again before writing this I see Run To Milan is now just 10/1 (he’d been Pricewised) and is around the price I thought he should be when I first looked. I believe he’ll run a big race and will still be backing him EW, but I can no longer call him value, the subject this blog concentrates on.
Run To Milan’s top 9 Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on right handed tracks, as Sandown is. This will be his first run over fences here. All three wins were at Exeter – like Sandown, right handed and undulating. His last three runs have been left-handed, and he showed some spark last time wearing first time cheekpieces, finishing 3rd on his 2nd run of the season. He’ll be fitter for this and ought to run well.
I expect Sir Ivan to be thereabouts too at a decent price. He finished 3rd in the past two running of this, but since last year’s renewal has come down 11lbs in the handicap. He was a good 3rd last time out at Fontwell over an inadequate trip.
But the best value now is the 40/1 Broken Quest with William Hill, EW to 6 places. Most of his racing has been on good ground, but he has won on heavy and on soft; still his top 4 Racing Post Ratings are on good ground, and his last nine runs have been on good. Broken Quest rattled up a three-timer last season. He’s had three runs this season, the best of them over 20f at Cheltenham in November where he had 4 of today’s rivals – Saint Xavier, Ballyandy, Kauto Riko, and Elegant Escape behind him. Like Run To Milan, all of his victories (9) have been right handed.
Broken Quest’s trainer David Dennis also has Indy Five here, ridden by Stan Sheppard, who rides for Dennis regularly and is Broken Quest’s usual rider. Indy Five is about 20/1. He’s inconsistent, and 4 of his 5 wins have been left handed. Gavin Sheehan rides Broken Quest.
So, take your pick. For value EW to 6 places, I think the 40/1 – Hills will boost that by about 5 points – about Broken Quest tops the others. His chance very much depends on how he handles the ground in this company, and I can only assume that’s the reason for his price; the doubt is there, but even with that I’d have had him in at around 14/1 to 16/1.
I’ll also have EW bets to 6 places on Run To Milan and Sir Ivan.
Run To Milan 10/1
Sir Ivan 11/1
Broken Quest 40/1
My usual warning. Anything I put up as a tip here is for ‘fun money’ – stakes you can afford to lose almost without even thinking about it. There’s just as much fun to be had with small stakes.
Post race edit: Run To Milan and Broken Quest were placed giving a return to £5ew of £60. £10 in losing stakes with Sir Ivan leaves a profit of £30.